Somalia’s president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh ... told British reporters at a press conference in London on Tuesday that the government-planned offensives against insurgents would be launched in the coming weeks and that African Union troops would provide ground support while US forces would help in the air.
"Within coming weeks, we will attack positions held by anti-government forces to retain the control of the country and make it peacefully," he told reporters at London's Al-Talah Hotel.
Amisom will help us in the ground offensives against Al-Qaeda-inspired insurgents while the Americans would provide aerial backings,” he added.
Reuters:
Asked whether he also saw a role for U.S. ground forces in the push, Ahmed said: "I cannot answer that."
...
Asked how he planned to hold any areas gained in the offensive, a critical task to establish authority, he said: "Our strategy is to mobilise the people, to secure the environment, to return the services and to start reconstruction."
"Our forces have prepared well," he said, but added: "We will need international assistance in the form of humanitarian aid and reconstruction after the liberation of these areas."
...
He denied reports that Somalis in nearby countries were being recruited to join the offensive, explaining there were plenty of Somalis in Somalia who wanted to serve in the army.
AFP: US commander backs bid for Mogadishu
A senior US military officer voiced support Tuesday for efforts by the Somali government to take control of the capital Mogadishu, saying it could help ease the country's chronic instability.
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General William Ward, the head of the US Africa Command, told a Senate hearing that the operation to retake Mogadishu was "a work in progress."
"To the degree the transitional federal government can in fact re-exert control over Mogadishu, with the help of AMISOM and others, I think is something that we would look to do in support," Ward testified.
He declined to give more details but reaffirmed US support for the transitional government of President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, a moderate Islamist.
...
The government "has for now our best potential for helping to turn around some of the instability and lack of governance that we've experienced there," Ward said.
UPI: TFG gears up for push with U.S. air power
Unmanned U.S. surveillance aircraft have been seen circling over Mogadishu in recent days, apparently pinpointing insurgent positions as the TFG marshals its forces. U.S. Army advisers have been helping train the TFG's forces, which have been largely equipped with millions of dollars' worth of U.S. arms airlifted into Mogadishu over the last few weeks.
...
It's not clear when the offensive will start. The word on the street is sometime in the next few weeks but some analysts say it will likely be at the end of the rainy season in May.
The initial objective will be to secure the capital. That would boost the status, not to mention the legitimacy, of the TFG which has generally been ineffective since it was installed in a U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion in December 2006.
...
After securing Mogadishu, the offensive, supported by militias allied with the government, for now, at least, is likely to continue against al-Shebab in the countryside west and south toward the border with Kenya.
The TFG's prospects are enhanced by divisions within al-Shebab and with rival militias, which have resulted in several serious clashes. These, and several high-level defections, have weakened the militia.
...
Still, the caliber of its new forces, mainly some 2,500 young Somalis recruited from refugee camps in Kenya and Ethiopia, is a worrying factor. These troops could find it hard going against the seasoned guerrilla fighters of al-Shebab, which is led by hardened jihadists and control much of southern and central Somalia.
...
According to Rashid Abdi of Brussels' International Crisis Group, which monitors events in Somalia, the TFG's young recruits are essentially mercenaries lured by U.S. gold to fight against the highly motivated Islamist warriors of al-Shebab.
"The recruits are primarily from the Ogaden clans who are the dominant community in the area near the Kenya-Somalia border," he said.
"It would appear that the strategic objective for Kenya is to insert these youths into the theater in Somalia to act as a buffer between Kenya and the al-Shebab."
Shabelle Media: Government soldiers fight, kill 3 people in Mogadishu
At least three people have been killed and 4 others were wounded after government soldiers exchanged [g]un fire at Mekka Al-mukarama street in Mogadishu, witnesses told Shabelle radio on Tuesday.
Reports say that the fighting was between the marine and police forces of the transitional government of Somalia and started between Km4 and 3-biano building, killing 3 people who were around the area.
Witnesses said that the clash started as the marine forces attempted to disrupt the passengers of a public traffic on the road which caused the police forces to intervene and fight with them.
Mareeg Online: Death toll rises as bloody fighting rocks Mogadishu
Fierce battles have left at least 26 people dead and about 80 wounded as Somali government forces backed by African Union peacekeepers clashed with al Shabaab militants in Mogadishu, witnesses and officials say.
The fighting started early on Wednesday in the north part of Mogadishu when al Shabaab launched attack on bases of the Somali government soldiers there.
Residents say mortars killed most civilians in Jungal and Suq Ba’ad markets in Mogadishu where 18 civilians died after successive mortars landed in those areas.
AMISOM tanks have reportedly took part the fighting and shelled areas under the control of the Islamist rebels.
Officials from the Somali government claimed victory over the fighting saying that they have regained three areas in capital from the rebels.
Al Shabaab spokesman have also claimed victory over the fighting, but civilians have borne the brunt of Wednesday’s fighting.
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From Ward's testimony during the Q&A portion of Tuesday's hearing before the SASC
The first country name to stumble out of Ward's lips in answer to Mccain's question "What's your greatest area of concern?"
..what's going on in Somalia..
A comment on Ethiopia
Ethiopia remains a friend, a partner in our efforts to help produce stability there in the region. Their work that the Ethiopians do, in the counterterrorism business as well as in the work of their participation in peacekeeping operations, is important work.
Evading Lieberman's request for an estimate of how the international players efforts to gain territority in Mogadishu are going
What's going on in Mogadishu, with respect to, uh, the desires of the transitional government to reclaim parts of Mogadishu, uh, is a work in progress. I'm not aware of the specifics, so I'll have to come back to you sir, with, uh, the specifics on what that current, uh, operation looks like, but to the degree that the TFG - the transitional federal government - can in fact, uh, re-exert control over Mogadishu with the help of AMISOM and others, I think is something that we would look to do and support...
Shuffling for words to string together in response to Lemieux request for an assessment of al-Qai'dah in Africa
We look at al Qaeda in Africa, Senator, in two locations essentially, although it's likely that they're in more but predominantly East Africa al Qaeda as well as al Qaeda Islamic Maghreb.
We see in the northern part of the continent al Qaeda Islamic Maghreb. They're operating, conducting kidnapping, other sorts of activities that certainly threaten, you know, our interests, threaten those interests of our partners in the region.
In the eastern part of the continent there, in East Africa, we see East Africa al Qaeda. Recently the claims of emerging between the al-Shabab in Somalia with East Africa al Qaeda are there; the linkages between East Africa al Qaeda and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, that network.
And so I would say that we certainly see indications and the presence of al Qaeda in Africa. Predominantly they're in the East Africa region as well as in the Sahel there, in the greater Sahara part of the continent as well, sir.
Lemieux continues: "Is it a growing influence? Are they becoming more organized?"
I would not characterize it there. I would come back with something for the record, more specific detail. But I would also offer that the -- based on what they are saying, that they are seeking to expand their influence there in the East Africa region as well as in the North Africa region.
More comments on Ethiopia, in response to Inhofe's defense of his favorite dictator in East Africa,
Senator, I meet with Prime Minister Meles quite regularly, and I have a huge respect for his leadership and the work that he does, especially as it pertains to addressing the threat of terror and cooperating with those who also address that threat of terror in East Africa, yes, sir.
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UPI: Israel eyes new alliances in Africa
..these days the Jewish state has a new ally, Kenya, which wants Israeli help to fight the growing menace of jihadist terrorism emanating from war-torn Somalia, Kenya's northern neighbor where jihadists linked to al-Qaida are active.
Israel is also seeking a foothold in the turbulent Horn of Africa to guard the approaches of the Red Sea. This is a vital shipping route and the access to the Arabian Sea for missile-armed Israeli submarines to target Iran should hostilities erupt.
...
Kenyan Minister of Internal Security George Saitoti asked for Israeli counter-terrorism assistance when he visited Jerusalem in February.
According to media reports, he told Israeli leaders: "The jihad is taking over Somalia and threatening to take over Kenya and all of Africa. No one is more experienced than you in fighting internal terrorism."
These reports said the Israelis responded by saying they were prepared to consider establishing a joint force with Kenya to guard its northwestern border to prevent terrorist infiltration.
Somalia's al-Shebab Islamist movement, which is fighting a Western-backed transitional government in Mogadishu, has repeatedly threatened to attack Kenya for allegedly training Somali troops.
According to the Jamestown Foundation, a U.S. think tank that monitors jihadist militancy, "The talks with Kenya appear to be part of a growing Israeli interest in the Horn of Africa."
In early February, Yigal Palmor, spokesman for Israel's Foreign Ministry, reportedly told the Somalia media that Israel was prepared to recognize the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which split from Somalia in 1991, as an independent nation.
If that happened, Israel would be the first country to recognize Somaliland, which is strategically located on the Gulf of Aden.
There have been reports, all unconfirmed, that Israel has its eye on setting up a naval outpost at the port of Berbera to monitor the approaches to the Red Sea.
...
..in recent months, Israel has been building military and intelligence links with Ethiopia, Nigeria and other African states.
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NYT article previews the upcoming (and long-awaited) UN Monitoring Group on Somalia report that will be presented to the security council Tuesday March 16 - Somalia Food Aid Bypasses Needy, U.N. Study Says
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AFP: East Africa Shines as Oil Exploration Bright Spot
East Africa has become a promising new frontier for oil exploration and major multinationals are jostling for the rights to search for black gold, industry experts said Tuesday.
"There are still large areas which are essentially unexploited and major efforts are needed in East Africa," Tiziana Luzzi-Arbouille, an African specialist with IHS Global Insight said at the CeraWeek energy conference in Houston, Texas.
While the Atlantic coast of Africa -- most notably Nigeria and Angola -- has long been exploited by western oil companies, it took decades for the industry to turn its sights to the east.
Things changed in 2006 with the first significant discovery in Uganda, in the Lake Albert basin. Since then another 15 sites have been confirmed, said Luzzi-Arbouille, who estimated Uganda's petroleum reserves at around 700 million barrels.
"What happened in Uganda made it easier for smaller companies to raise funding," said Tewodros Ashenafi, head of Southwest Energy, an Ethiopian company exploring in that country's Ogaden basin.
"Many people were saying: there is nothing in Uganda. Many people are saying, there is nothing in Ethiopia," he told the conference. "In about a year and a half, I'm looking forward to saying 'I told you so'."
Significant natural gas reserves have been discovered in Tanzania and Mozambique. Ethiopia and Somalia are also sites of intense exploration. And Madagascar holds "enormous reserves," Luzzi-Arbouille told AFP in an interview on the sidelines of the conference.
"The question is what we'll be able to extract," given the difficulty in accessing the resources, she said.
"Ten percent would be pretty good."
Major oil companies have thrown themselves into the race: French group Maurel & Prom is drilling in Tanzania, while U.S. group Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) and Norway's Statoil ASA (STO) are drilling in Mozambique's Rovuma basin.
"At the beginning, smaller companies were taking the risks. Now all of a sudden we see the big fish arriving," Luzzi-Arbouille said.
Britain's Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN) is battling with Italy's Eni SpA (E) for control of the Ugandan deposits in Lake Albert, after its partner, Heritage Oil PLC (HOIL.LN), sought to sell its 50% stake in two oil fields.
Tullow prevailed last month and bought the stake for $1.5 billion, gaining total control of the Ugandan side of the lake, which is partially controlled by the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Tullow has said it will seek a partnership with a large exploration company in order to offset the colossal investments needed to exploit the oil fields and develop the infrastructure needed to transport the crude.
Comments by high-ranking Ugandan officials indicate the short list includes China's state-controlled CNOOC, France's Total and US giant ExxonMobil.
The region is particularly attractive to the Chinese, who are already very active on the African continent, because of easier and shorter transport routes to Asia.
From an article in Time from a Nairobi-based freelancer: Is East Africa the Next Frontier for Oil?
According to local lore, Portuguese travelers as far back as the late 19th century suspected that oil might lie beneath parts of East Africa after noticing a thick, greasy sediment wash up on the shores of Mozambique. More interested in finding cheap labor, though, the explorers had little use for oil.
A century later, it turns out that the Portuguese were right. Seismic tests over the past 50 years have shown that countries up the coast of East Africa have natural gas in abundance. Early data compiled by industry consultants also suggest the presence of massive offshore oil deposits. Those finds have spurred oil explorers to start dropping more wells in East Africa, a region they say is an oil and gas bonanza just waiting to be tapped, one of the last great frontiers in the hunt for hydrocarbons. "I and a lot of other people in oil companies working in East Africa have long been convinced that it's the last real high-potential area in the world that hasn't been fully explored," says Richard Schmitt, chief executive of Black Marlin Energy, a Dubai-based East Africa oil prospector. "It seems, for a variety of geopolitical reasons, that more than anything else, it's been neglected over the last several decades. Most of those barriers are currently being lowered or [have] disappeared altogether."
Few have wanted to pay the cost of searching for oil or gas in the region, or risk drilling wells in volatile countries such as Uganda, Mozambique or Somalia. But better technology, lower risk in some of the countries and higher oil prices in recent years have changed the equation. Wildcatters and majors such as Italy's Eni, Petronas of Malaysia and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) have all moved on East Africa in the past few years.
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Much of East Africa's hopes are focused on a fault line running from Somalia to Madagascar known as the Davie Fracture Zone. It's there that Bertagne's analysis — using Cold War–era sea-floor mapping originally intended for use by Soviet submarines — has prompted speculation about oil deposits rivaling those of the North Sea or Middle East.
There's still a lot that's unknown: North Africa has seen 20,000 wells sunk over the past few decades, while drillers have sunk 14,000 wells in and off West Africa. In East Africa, the total is about 500 wells.
That's changing.
...
Explorers salivate in particular at the prospect of peace in Somalia. Oil reserves in the blocks licensed to two small oil companies, Africa Oil and Range Resources, could contain as much as 10 billion bbl. Nobody is talking about producing oil in Somalia anytime soon, but analysts say oil companies are less likely to be intimidated by political risk than they were in the past. They point to oil production in south Sudan, where a 20-year civil war that ended in 2005 threatens to reignite. "Definitely, there is a sense that there are discoveries to be had," says Aly-Khan Satchu, a financial adviser who runs Rich Management in Nairobi. "The reality and the perception of risk are narrowing."
UPI: East Africa is next hot oil zone
"What happened in Uganda made it easier for smaller companies to raise funding," said Tewodros Ashenafi, head of Southwest Energy, an Ethiopian company exploring in the Ogaden Basin in the east of the country.
This is a vast 135,000-square-mile territory in landlocked Ethiopia that is believed to contain sizable reserves of oil. It is estimated to hold 4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas as well.
Malaysia's Petronas, which recently acquired major blocks in Iraq, signed an exploration agreement with Addis Ababa in August 2007.
The main problem for the oil industry is that the Ogaden, like many parts of Africa, is a conflict zone, as it has been pretty much since the Cold War in the 1970s. This is one reason why exploration has been so tardy.
Separatist rebels of the Ogaden National Liberation Front have warned oil companies to keep away and in April 2007 attacked a Chinese exploration group, killing 74 people.
Petronas is also exploring in the Gambella Basin of western Ethiopia.
Somalia has been torn by wars between feuding militias and clans since dictator Siad Barre was toppled in 1991 but it is also considered to hold considerable oil reserves.
A 1993 study by Petroconsultants of Geneva concluded that Somalia has two of the most potentially interesting hydrocarbon-yielding basins in the entire region -- one in the central Mudugh region, the other in the Gulf of Aden.
That was one of 10 such basins across Somalia, southeast Ethiopia and northeast Kenya.
More recent analyses indicate that Somalia could have reserves of up to 10 billion barrels.
But exploration remains an extremely hazardous undertaking. And it's likely to become more so as the country becomes a major focus for U.S. counter-terrorism operations against al-Qaida and its affiliates who are dug in there.
Noted in issue 341 of Ecoterra International's SMCM,
Meanwhile French clandestine research activities are said to continue in Somali waters and inside the Somali EEZ by the hydro-oceanographic vessel Beautemps Beaupré A758, working for Service Hydrographique et Océanographique de la Marine (SHOM), which has close links with TOTAL, the French oil company. The French research vessel violating the sovreignty of Somalia is protected by French warship NIVOSE.
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VOA: At Least 40 Killed in Mogadishu Fighting
A Somali medical official says at least 40 people have been killed over two days of intense fighting between pro-government forces and Islamist insurgents.
Witnesses say the clashes began in north Mogadishu Wednesday afternoon and escalated when African Union peacekeepers in tanks reinforced government troops. Residents reported heavy shelling overnight into Thursday.
AP: 43 Somalis killed in capital after 2 days of fighting between Islamists and government
Heavy fighting between Somali insurgents and pro-government troops has killed at least 43 people over two days, as African Union peacekeepers (sic) used tanks to help the beleaguered government beat back an insurgent attack, officials said Thursday.
Militants attacking from the north on Wednesday reached to within a mile (2 kilometres) of the presidential place in the heart of the capital, Mogadishu, before African Union peacekeepers (sic) in tanks reinforced government troops, residents said.
Ali Muse, the head of Mogadishu's ambulance service, said he saw 40 bodies lying in the streets over the two days of fighting Wednesday and Thursday. Nearly 150 were wounded, mostly civilians, he said.
"The fighting was heavier than that of yesterday," said Muse. "Our ambulances are sometimes caught in the crossfire. Our ambulance crews use dangerous streets and they have to dodge mortars and bullets. Sometimes it takes us hours to reach injured civilians and because of that they bleed to death."
...
The government is supported by around 5,300 African Union peacekeepers, whose tanks and armoured vehicles help them to outgun the insurgents. The insurgents favour mobile hit-and-run attacks, using snipers and mortar fire to make it hard for the government's poorly trained and irregularly paid soldiers to hold their position.
The peacekeepers used tanks to help government forces when the insurgents got within a mile of the presidential palace, said resident Omar Salad. Other residents confirmed his account.
The insurgents, the government and the peacekeepers have all been criticized by human rights groups for indiscriminately firing into and shelling residential neighbourhoods. But the criticism has had little effect.
"The rebels launched the attack and we had a right to defend. We fended them off and killed many of them, thank God," said Yusuf Mohamed Siyad, Somalia state minister for defence.
"We have forced our enemy to taste the pain of our weapons," said a spokesman for the Islamist al-Shabab militia, Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage.
The government hopes to break the stalemate with an upcoming offensive, but its launch has been delayed by problems that include inadequate equipment and training. There has been a surge in fighting since the beginning of the year, when the offensive was first being publicly discussed.
Even if the government push succeeds, few Somalis trust an administration that has failed to deliver even a semblance of services or security more than a year after it took power.
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Shabelle Media: Somali government finalizes shari'ah-compliant draft constitution
The Transitional Federal Government of Somalia's [TFG] Committee on Constitution has said they have now finished writing the [new] constitution.
The deputy chairman of the TFG committee on constitution and federal affairs, who is also the acting chairman of the committee, Abdikadir Shaykh Ismail, has today [Wednesday] held a news conference in Mogadishu and said they have now concluded the drafting of how the current constitution to be compliant with the Islamic shari'ah.
The official said they will now tabled the new document before the parliament for approval after which it will then become law.
The deputy chairman of the TFG committee on constitution said they will also table the document before the Somali public and religious scholars in the country before it is finally implemented.
The parliamentary committee on constitution had earlier on announced that the document meant to ensure the current constitution is shari'ah complaint, was almost complete.
It is not yet known whether the TFG parliament will approve this document having earlier on voted in favour of the implementation of shari'ah law in the country.
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IPS: SOMALIA: U.S. Should Accept Islamist Authority, Report Says
The United States should accept an "Islamist authority" in Somalia as part of a "constructive disengagement" strategy for the war-torn country, according to a new report released here by the influential Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) on Wednesday.
The 39-page report urges the U.S. to recognise that "Islamist authority" even if it includes al-Shabaab, or "the youth" in Arabic, an Islamist insurgent group that has declared loyalty to al Qaeda.
It calls the current U.S. approach toward Somalia of propping up the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) "counterproductive". Not only is it alienating large sections of the Somali population, but it is effectively polarising its diverse Muslim community into so-called "moderate" and "extremist" camps, the report says.
While the report encourages an "inclusive posture" by the U.S. toward local fundamentalists, it suggests the U.S. should show "zero-tolerance' toward transnational actors attempting to exploit Somalia's conflict", apparently referring to al Qaeda.
"The Shabaab is an alliance of convenience and its hold over territory is weaker than it appears. Somali fundamentalists - whose ambitions are mostly local - are likely to break ranks with al-Qaeda and other foreign operatives as the utility of cooperation diminishes," says the report, authored by Bronwyn Bruton, a CFR international affairs fellow. "The United States and its allies must encourage these fissures to expand."
...
The report also warns against continued support for the U.N.-backed TFG since it has proven "ineffective and costly".
"The TFG is unable to improve security, deliver basic services, or move toward an agreement with Somalia's clans and opposition groups that would provide a stronger basis for governance," the report says.
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Entitled "Somalia , A New Approach", the report comes at a critical moment in the evolution of U.S. policy toward Somalia . Earlier this week, the New York Times reported that U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) are helping the Somali government, which has about 7,000 troops in the capital, plan an impending TFG military offensive aimed at dislodging al-Shabaab fighters from Mogadishu.
The report details two decades of strife in the Horn of Africa nation, the establishment of the TFG, and its ongoing ensuing power struggle with the al-Shabaab's movement and its allies.
Bruton contends that the U.S. policy of providing indirect diplomatic and military support to the weak TFG has only "served to isolate the government, and...to propel cooperation among previously fractured and quarrelsome extremist groups."
The report calls on the United States to make a final attempt to help the Somali government build public support by drawing in leaders of the other Islamist groups. But it urges the administration of President Barack Obama to consider major policy changes should the TFG fail or continue to be marginalised to the point of powerlessness.
...
some analysts believe that the U.S. help could easily lead to strengthening the insurgent movement in an already complicated set of circumstances.
"The administration has decided to move aggressively to support the TFG and is providing training, intelligence, military advice, and hardware to the TFG army in anticipation of a major TFG offensive against al-Shabaab," said David R. Smock, vice president of the United States Institute of Peace's Centre for Mediation and Conflict Resolution.
"This is a major American gamble which could backfire. The offensive could easily fail, which might lead the U.S. to get even more heavily engaged. We have been burned badly in Somalia before, and we could be burned again," he added.
...
The CFR report also recommends a decentralised development strategy in collaboration with "the informal and traditional authorities" on the ground. It calls for restraining Ethiopia, which has been involved in Somalia's conflicts for years.
Bruton suggests that the U.S. should not "own the Somali crisis" and needs to launch a diplomatic campaign to involve European and Middle Eastern countries to support Somalia's stabilisation and address its humanitarian and developments needs.
Here is the link to Bronwyn Bruton's CFR report, Somalia: A New Approach
From the forward, by the CFR's President Haass,
In this Council Special Report, sponsored by CFR's Center for Preventive Action, Bronwyn E. Bruton proposes a strategy to combat terrorism and promote development and stability in Somalia. She first outlines the recent political history involving the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) formed in 2004 and its Islamist opponents, chiefly the Shabaab, which has declared allegiance to al-Qaeda. She then analyzes U.S. interests in the country, including counterterrorism, piracy, and humanitarian concerns, as well as the prospect of broader regional instability.
Bruton argues that the current U.S. policy of supporting the TFG is proving ineffective and costly. The TFG is unable to improve security, deliver basic services, or move toward an agreement with Somalia’s clans and opposition groups that would provide a stronger basis for governance. She also cites flaws in two alternative policies—a reinforced international military intervention to bolster the TFG or an offshore approach that seeks to contain terrorist threats with missiles and drones.
Instead, Bruton advances a strategy of “constructive disengagement.” Notably, this calls for the United States to signal that it will accept an Islamist authority in Somalia—including the Shabaab—as long as it does not impede international humanitarian activities and refrains from both regional aggression and support for international jihad. As regards terrorism, the report recommends continued airstrikes to target al-Qaeda and other foreign terrorists while taking care to minimize civilian casualties. It argues for a decentralized approach to distributing U.S. foreign aid that works with existing local authorities and does not seek to build formal institutions. And the report counsels against an aggressive military response to piracy, making the case instead for initiatives to mobilize Somalis themselves against pirates.
I have not had time yet to read through Bruton's report but I did want to see how much she reveals (or is even aware) of the role of the US in creating this latest incarnation of the TFG. Unfortunately, a search on various actors -- Ranneberger for instance -- returns no matches. Instead, she takes the following position:
The international community had little choice but to swallow its misgivings about the nomination of a former SCIC leader, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, to the presidency and to throw its support behind the revamped TFG.
As we watched throughout that period, the US was quite actively promoting Sh. Sharif as Yusuf's replacement so Mrs. Bruton's analysis starts w/ at least one fundamental flaw.
From a recent interview with Bruton:
You argue in the report that, in many ways, outside intervention, rather than its failed state status, is what has contributed to the rise of Islamic radicals in Somalia.
We always have concerns about failed states because they're in a power vacuum. In the case of Somalia, crimes like piracy have tended to pop up, but the assessment of U.S. intelligence [in a 2007 West Point report] was that Somalia was actually inoculated from foreign jihadist movements, from foreign terrorist groups. They based that assessment on extensive al-Qaeda correspondence intercepted during the 1990s. During the 1990s, al-Qaeda had attempted to work with a local group called Al-Ittihad to establish an emirate in Somalia, and they found themselves really roundly defeated by the clan system and the inhospitability of the environment. Al-Qaeda's experience in Somalia was so terrible that U.S. intelligence basically said, "There's no way they can operate there."
...
The creation of the Shabaab itself can be traced to 2004, the year the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was created. It really sprang up as a counterreaction to international attempts to create some kind of a political regime in Somalia. The Shabaab grew from being a fairly fringe, radical movement, to becoming a popular insurgency in the wake of the Ethiopian invasion which destroyed the Union of Islamic Courts.
...
Doesn't this reconciliation process [between clan factions], which could take decades, leave the country prey to Shabaab and other groups?
The contention of U.S. officials, that if you abandon the TFG you open Somalia to extremist groups, is actually illogical. It's a false assertion that's based on a misreading of Somalia's history and context. Somalia's history shows very clearly that in the absence of international intervention, the country has been quite--"inoculated" is that word intelligence operatives use--against al-Qaeda.
Keep in mind this position expressed by Bruton -- that extremism in Somalia is primarily tied to outside interference violating Somalia's sovereignty -- when reading the next excerpts. Also consider how she refers to the USG's failure to apply logic in its positions...
Is there any kind of nation-building effort in Somalia that could work?
A state-building effort, if you want to do it properly, will require an enormous investment of U.S. resources. The general rule of thumb for the number of peacekeeping troops that would be required of a country of Somalia's population [estimated by the United Nations in 2003 at 9,890,000] and its mix of permissive and non-permissive environments is approximately 100,000. It's impossible to imagine the international community coming up with those kind of numbers for Somalia.
Think of the amount of money that's been spent in Afghanistan. Somalia is worse off than Afghanistan. It has less government infrastructure; there's less consensus on the ground about what government should look like. There's a greater humanitarian crisis, and there's probably a greater hostility to the West. So you are looking at a situation in which you would be pumping billions and billions of dollars a year into Somalia for over a decade. I don't think there's any lawmaker or intelligence operative who would say that the threat that Somalia poses merits that kind of an investment at this stage.
So really what you're looking at is an alternative between the status quo and sort of just trying your best to let Somalia be. And trying your best to let Somalia be doesn't mean that you give up on counterterror activities. I think that there's been some recent incursions by the Obama administration, particularly the attack against Saleh Ali Nabhan [head of a Qaeda cell in Kenya responsible for the 2002 bombing of an Israeli hotel, who was killed in Somalia by American commandoes in September, 2009], which were very successful. U.S. operatives managed to go into Somalia, they killed Nabhan and a couple of his colleagues, and they didn't kill any Somali civilians. And the Somali reaction to that was pretty much, "Oh." It barely caused a ripple.
So there are occasions when the United States can and should intervene militarily in Somalia?
The TFG talks about the threat of terrorism, because that's key to the support it's getting from the West. Likewise, there are factions within the Shabaab that try to exploit the possibility of cooperation with al-Qaeda to get arms and funding from the Middle East. It really is a political game.
The U.S. should feel entitled to use force against foreign operatives who are looking to exploit Somalia's conflict. My sense is that the majority of Somalis would not object to that, as long as Somali civilians are not caught up in the crossfire. The Shabaab is broadly perceived by Somalis as a foreign movement promoting foreign goals, and I don't think that many Somalis are going to have a very hard time accepting that some guy that's come to Somalia bringing guns, disorder, and chaos is going to be wiped out by the United States.
How can you advocate talking with Shabaab, yet also talk about taking action against them militarily?
You can't really use the Shabaab as a broad category. There are people in the Shabaab who are pro-al-Qaeda who want to launch attacks against the United States, who are ideologically motivated. Those individuals are a threat to U.S. interests, and they need to be dealt with militarily. However, the vast majority of the Shabaab are thugs, and people who are opportunistically trying to make a fortune, a profit, in Somalia's conflict. Those people need to be treated differently. The United States has made that recognition in Iraq; it's made that recognition in Afghanistan, between people who are internationally oriented and people who are locally oriented. A major problem with U.S. policy in Somalia is that that sort of logical leap hasn't been taken.
Anyone else see some serious contradictions & logical inconsistencies there?
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Reuters:
Residents of the southern port town of Kismayu and Dhobley near the border with Kenya -- which are both controlled by al Shabaab -- reported having seen a helicopter and a larger plane overhead several times over the past few days.
"Al Shabaab fired guns at them but they were beyond reach," Sugaal Kusow, a Kismayu resident, told Reuters. "They were not bombing us, so we assumed they are monitoring planes."
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From a rational commentary from Dan Simpson, a veteran (ret.) foreign affairs official whose service included a stint as ambassador & special envoy to Somalia:
Folly in Somalia: We and the rest of the world ought to leave the Somalis to their own devices
Reports that the United States is providing military assistance to the so-called government of Somalia to help it conquer uncontrolled parts of the capital, Mogadishu, reveal continued folly in U.S. policy toward that tormented country.
I could view the situation with icier detachment if I had not served as the last U.S. ambassador and special envoy to Somalia in 1994 and 1995. This role allowed me to get to know some Somalis and to gain a certain understanding of the country, so it is difficult for me to view it coolly, from afar.
...
Somalia has suffered an amazing amount of foreign intervention from 1991 to the present. The United Nations and then the United States intervened in the early 1990s to prevent Somali militias from interfering with humanitarian efforts to meet famine and other disasters in Somalia in the wake of the collapse of government and subsequent clan fighting.
The problem came when the United Nations and the Clinton administration turned from the humanitarian mission to nation re-building. It would have been difficult to keep the humanitarian program going without foreign troops unless a viable government were in place to assure law and order. But it was a question of how to get from a state of almost total disorder to the re-creation of viable government.
When the world tried to take on that chore, the Somalis began to concentrate their efforts on making the foreigners' presence unbearable. Worse, the foreigners had their own view of which Somalis should be running the show.
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Since [1994], there have been two streams of effort on the part of the world to try to reestablish government in Somalia. One cobbled together a government after months of talk in Kenya. This produced the one that now holds a few blocks of Mogadishu with the help of African Union forces. The other has been up-and-down efforts of an Islamic group called the Shabab to establish rule in Somalia.
The American government has decided that the Shabab is too infected with Islamic extremism, including perhaps influence by al-Qaida, to be permitted to take power, even though it probably would if the African Union withdrew. In the name of keeping the Shabab out, the United States provided air and intelligence support for an invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia in 2006. The Ethiopians eventually found trying to keep the provisional government in power such a miserable business that they withdrew last year.
Now, apparently, U.S. forces are providing arms, advisers and other military support to the African Union and newly trained forces of the provisional government to try to enable them to enlarge the small area of Mogadishu they currently control.
There is reason to believe this effort will fail, partly because the Shabab are determined and their forces large, partly because the African Union forces are not highly motivated to die in Somalia and partly because the provisional government forces are likely to fragment into clans, be ineffectual and eventually loot the American arms, perhaps diverting them to the Shabab and other militias.
So why, apart from the only lightly documented charge of Islamic extremism among the Shabab, is the United States reengaging in Somalia at this time?
Part of the reason is because the United States has its only base in Africa up the coast from Mogadishu, in Djibouti, the former French Somaliland. The U.S. Africa Command was established there in 2008, and, absent the willingness of other African countries to host it, the base in Djibouti became the headquarters for U.S. troops and fighter bombers in Africa.
Flush with money, in spite of the expensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Department of Defense obviously feels itself in a position to undertake military action in Africa, in Somalia. Whether it makes sense to do so, or whether the Somalis would be more likely to set up and consolidate a working government in Mogadishu in the absence of foreign intervention, is another question altogether.
When I left the issue in 1995 I was persuaded that the best thing for Somalia -- and therefore for America and the rest of the world -- was to leave the Somalis to sort out their problems. Given what has happened since, and what is likely to happen now with the new U.S. military effort, I still think so. Why not let the Shabab take the place and then do business with them?
