Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Somalia thread for the week ending March 14

From a report at Garowe Online:
Somalia’s president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh ... told British reporters at a press conference in London on Tuesday that the government-planned offensives against insurgents would be launched in the coming weeks and that African Union troops would provide ground support while US forces would help in the air.

"Within coming weeks, we will attack positions held by anti-government forces to retain the control of the country and make it peacefully," he told reporters at London's Al-Talah Hotel.

Amisom will help us in the ground offensives against Al-Qaeda-inspired insurgents while the Americans would provide aerial backings,” he added.


Reuters:
Asked whether he also saw a role for U.S. ground forces in the push, Ahmed said: "I cannot answer that."

...

Asked how he planned to hold any areas gained in the offensive, a critical task to establish authority, he said: "Our strategy is to mobilise the people, to secure the environment, to return the services and to start reconstruction."

"Our forces have prepared well," he said, but added: "We will need international assistance in the form of humanitarian aid and reconstruction after the liberation of these areas."

...

He denied reports that Somalis in nearby countries were being recruited to join the offensive, explaining there were plenty of Somalis in Somalia who wanted to serve in the army.


AFP: US commander backs bid for Mogadishu
A senior US military officer voiced support Tuesday for efforts by the Somali government to take control of the capital Mogadishu, saying it could help ease the country's chronic instability.

...

General William Ward, the head of the US Africa Command, told a Senate hearing that the operation to retake Mogadishu was "a work in progress."

"To the degree the transitional federal government can in fact re-exert control over Mogadishu, with the help of AMISOM and others, I think is something that we would look to do in support," Ward testified.

He declined to give more details but reaffirmed US support for the transitional government of President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, a moderate Islamist.

...

The government "has for now our best potential for helping to turn around some of the instability and lack of governance that we've experienced there," Ward said.


UPI: TFG gears up for push with U.S. air power
Unmanned U.S. surveillance aircraft have been seen circling over Mogadishu in recent days, apparently pinpointing insurgent positions as the TFG marshals its forces. U.S. Army advisers have been helping train the TFG's forces, which have been largely equipped with millions of dollars' worth of U.S. arms airlifted into Mogadishu over the last few weeks.

...

It's not clear when the offensive will start. The word on the street is sometime in the next few weeks but some analysts say it will likely be at the end of the rainy season in May.

The initial objective will be to secure the capital. That would boost the status, not to mention the legitimacy, of the TFG which has generally been ineffective since it was installed in a U.S.-backed Ethiopian invasion in December 2006.

...

After securing Mogadishu, the offensive, supported by militias allied with the government, for now, at least, is likely to continue against al-Shebab in the countryside west and south toward the border with Kenya.

The TFG's prospects are enhanced by divisions within al-Shebab and with rival militias, which have resulted in several serious clashes. These, and several high-level defections, have weakened the militia.

...

Still, the caliber of its new forces, mainly some 2,500 young Somalis recruited from refugee camps in Kenya and Ethiopia, is a worrying factor. These troops could find it hard going against the seasoned guerrilla fighters of al-Shebab, which is led by hardened jihadists and control much of southern and central Somalia.

...

According to Rashid Abdi of Brussels' International Crisis Group, which monitors events in Somalia, the TFG's young recruits are essentially mercenaries lured by U.S. gold to fight against the highly motivated Islamist warriors of al-Shebab.

"The recruits are primarily from the Ogaden clans who are the dominant community in the area near the Kenya-Somalia border," he said.

"It would appear that the strategic objective for Kenya is to insert these youths into the theater in Somalia to act as a buffer between Kenya and the al-Shebab."


Shabelle Media: Government soldiers fight, kill 3 people in Mogadishu
At least three people have been killed and 4 others were wounded after government soldiers exchanged [g]un fire at Mekka Al-mukarama street in Mogadishu, witnesses told Shabelle radio on Tuesday.

Reports say that the fighting was between the marine and police forces of the transitional government of Somalia and started between Km4 and 3-biano building, killing 3 people who were around the area.

Witnesses said that the clash started as the marine forces attempted to disrupt the passengers of a public traffic on the road which caused the police forces to intervene and fight with them.


Mareeg Online: Death toll rises as bloody fighting rocks Mogadishu
Fierce battles have left at least 26 people dead and about 80 wounded as Somali government forces backed by African Union peacekeepers clashed with al Shabaab militants in Mogadishu, witnesses and officials say.

The fighting started early on Wednesday in the north part of Mogadishu when al Shabaab launched attack on bases of the Somali government soldiers there.

Residents say mortars killed most civilians in Jungal and Suq Ba’ad markets in Mogadishu where 18 civilians died after successive mortars landed in those areas.

AMISOM tanks have reportedly took part the fighting and shelled areas under the control of the Islamist rebels.

Officials from the Somali government claimed victory over the fighting saying that they have regained three areas in capital from the rebels.

Al Shabaab spokesman have also claimed victory over the fighting, but civilians have borne the brunt of Wednesday’s fighting.


-- -- --

From Ward's testimony during the Q&A portion of Tuesday's hearing before the SASC

The first country name to stumble out of Ward's lips in answer to Mccain's question "What's your greatest area of concern?"

..what's going on in Somalia..


A comment on Ethiopia

Ethiopia remains a friend, a partner in our efforts to help produce stability there in the region. Their work that the Ethiopians do, in the counterterrorism business as well as in the work of their participation in peacekeeping operations, is important work.


Evading Lieberman's request for an estimate of how the international players efforts to gain territority in Mogadishu are going


What's going on in Mogadishu, with respect to, uh, the desires of the transitional government to reclaim parts of Mogadishu, uh, is a work in progress. I'm not aware of the specifics, so I'll have to come back to you sir, with, uh, the specifics on what that current, uh, operation looks like, but to the degree that the TFG - the transitional federal government - can in fact, uh, re-exert control over Mogadishu with the help of AMISOM and others, I think is something that we would look to do and support...


Shuffling for words to string together in response to Lemieux request for an assessment of al-Qai'dah in Africa
We look at al Qaeda in Africa, Senator, in two locations essentially, although it's likely that they're in more but predominantly East Africa al Qaeda as well as al Qaeda Islamic Maghreb.

We see in the northern part of the continent al Qaeda Islamic Maghreb. They're operating, conducting kidnapping, other sorts of activities that certainly threaten, you know, our interests, threaten those interests of our partners in the region.

In the eastern part of the continent there, in East Africa, we see East Africa al Qaeda. Recently the claims of emerging between the al-Shabab in Somalia with East Africa al Qaeda are there; the linkages between East Africa al Qaeda and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, that network.

And so I would say that we certainly see indications and the presence of al Qaeda in Africa. Predominantly they're in the East Africa region as well as in the Sahel there, in the greater Sahara part of the continent as well, sir.


Lemieux continues: "Is it a growing influence? Are they becoming more organized?"

I would not characterize it there. I would come back with something for the record, more specific detail. But I would also offer that the -- based on what they are saying, that they are seeking to expand their influence there in the East Africa region as well as in the North Africa region.


More comments on Ethiopia, in response to Inhofe's defense of his favorite dictator in East Africa,
Senator, I meet with Prime Minister Meles quite regularly, and I have a huge respect for his leadership and the work that he does, especially as it pertains to addressing the threat of terror and cooperating with those who also address that threat of terror in East Africa, yes, sir.


-- -- --

UPI: Israel eyes new alliances in Africa
..these days the Jewish state has a new ally, Kenya, which wants Israeli help to fight the growing menace of jihadist terrorism emanating from war-torn Somalia, Kenya's northern neighbor where jihadists linked to al-Qaida are active.

Israel is also seeking a foothold in the turbulent Horn of Africa to guard the approaches of the Red Sea. This is a vital shipping route and the access to the Arabian Sea for missile-armed Israeli submarines to target Iran should hostilities erupt.

...

Kenyan Minister of Internal Security George Saitoti asked for Israeli counter-terrorism assistance when he visited Jerusalem in February.

According to media reports, he told Israeli leaders: "The jihad is taking over Somalia and threatening to take over Kenya and all of Africa. No one is more experienced than you in fighting internal terrorism."

These reports said the Israelis responded by saying they were prepared to consider establishing a joint force with Kenya to guard its northwestern border to prevent terrorist infiltration.

Somalia's al-Shebab Islamist movement, which is fighting a Western-backed transitional government in Mogadishu, has repeatedly threatened to attack Kenya for allegedly training Somali troops.

According to the Jamestown Foundation, a U.S. think tank that monitors jihadist militancy, "The talks with Kenya appear to be part of a growing Israeli interest in the Horn of Africa."

In early February, Yigal Palmor, spokesman for Israel's Foreign Ministry, reportedly told the Somalia media that Israel was prepared to recognize the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which split from Somalia in 1991, as an independent nation.

If that happened, Israel would be the first country to recognize Somaliland, which is strategically located on the Gulf of Aden.

There have been reports, all unconfirmed, that Israel has its eye on setting up a naval outpost at the port of Berbera to monitor the approaches to the Red Sea.

...

..in recent months, Israel has been building military and intelligence links with Ethiopia, Nigeria and other African states.


-- -- --

NYT article previews the upcoming (and long-awaited) UN Monitoring Group on Somalia report that will be presented to the security council Tuesday March 16 - Somalia Food Aid Bypasses Needy, U.N. Study Says

-- -- --

AFP: East Africa Shines as Oil Exploration Bright Spot
East Africa has become a promising new frontier for oil exploration and major multinationals are jostling for the rights to search for black gold, industry experts said Tuesday.

"There are still large areas which are essentially unexploited and major efforts are needed in East Africa," Tiziana Luzzi-Arbouille, an African specialist with IHS Global Insight said at the CeraWeek energy conference in Houston, Texas.

While the Atlantic coast of Africa -- most notably Nigeria and Angola -- has long been exploited by western oil companies, it took decades for the industry to turn its sights to the east.

Things changed in 2006 with the first significant discovery in Uganda, in the Lake Albert basin. Since then another 15 sites have been confirmed, said Luzzi-Arbouille, who estimated Uganda's petroleum reserves at around 700 million barrels.

"What happened in Uganda made it easier for smaller companies to raise funding," said Tewodros Ashenafi, head of Southwest Energy, an Ethiopian company exploring in that country's Ogaden basin.

"Many people were saying: there is nothing in Uganda. Many people are saying, there is nothing in Ethiopia," he told the conference. "In about a year and a half, I'm looking forward to saying 'I told you so'."

Significant natural gas reserves have been discovered in Tanzania and Mozambique. Ethiopia and Somalia are also sites of intense exploration. And Madagascar holds "enormous reserves," Luzzi-Arbouille told AFP in an interview on the sidelines of the conference.

"The question is what we'll be able to extract," given the difficulty in accessing the resources, she said.

"Ten percent would be pretty good."

Major oil companies have thrown themselves into the race: French group Maurel & Prom is drilling in Tanzania, while U.S. group Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) and Norway's Statoil ASA (STO) are drilling in Mozambique's Rovuma basin.

"At the beginning, smaller companies were taking the risks. Now all of a sudden we see the big fish arriving," Luzzi-Arbouille said.

Britain's Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN) is battling with Italy's Eni SpA (E) for control of the Ugandan deposits in Lake Albert, after its partner, Heritage Oil PLC (HOIL.LN), sought to sell its 50% stake in two oil fields.

Tullow prevailed last month and bought the stake for $1.5 billion, gaining total control of the Ugandan side of the lake, which is partially controlled by the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Tullow has said it will seek a partnership with a large exploration company in order to offset the colossal investments needed to exploit the oil fields and develop the infrastructure needed to transport the crude.

Comments by high-ranking Ugandan officials indicate the short list includes China's state-controlled CNOOC, France's Total and US giant ExxonMobil.

The region is particularly attractive to the Chinese, who are already very active on the African continent, because of easier and shorter transport routes to Asia.


From an article in Time from a Nairobi-based freelancer: Is East Africa the Next Frontier for Oil?
According to local lore, Portuguese travelers as far back as the late 19th century suspected that oil might lie beneath parts of East Africa after noticing a thick, greasy sediment wash up on the shores of Mozambique. More interested in finding cheap labor, though, the explorers had little use for oil.

A century later, it turns out that the Portuguese were right. Seismic tests over the past 50 years have shown that countries up the coast of East Africa have natural gas in abundance. Early data compiled by industry consultants also suggest the presence of massive offshore oil deposits. Those finds have spurred oil explorers to start dropping more wells in East Africa, a region they say is an oil and gas bonanza just waiting to be tapped, one of the last great frontiers in the hunt for hydrocarbons. "I and a lot of other people in oil companies working in East Africa have long been convinced that it's the last real high-potential area in the world that hasn't been fully explored," says Richard Schmitt, chief executive of Black Marlin Energy, a Dubai-based East Africa oil prospector. "It seems, for a variety of geopolitical reasons, that more than anything else, it's been neglected over the last several decades. Most of those barriers are currently being lowered or [have] disappeared altogether."

Few have wanted to pay the cost of searching for oil or gas in the region, or risk drilling wells in volatile countries such as Uganda, Mozambique or Somalia. But better technology, lower risk in some of the countries and higher oil prices in recent years have changed the equation. Wildcatters and majors such as Italy's Eni, Petronas of Malaysia and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) have all moved on East Africa in the past few years.

...

Much of East Africa's hopes are focused on a fault line running from Somalia to Madagascar known as the Davie Fracture Zone. It's there that Bertagne's analysis — using Cold War–era sea-floor mapping originally intended for use by Soviet submarines — has prompted speculation about oil deposits rivaling those of the North Sea or Middle East.

There's still a lot that's unknown: North Africa has seen 20,000 wells sunk over the past few decades, while drillers have sunk 14,000 wells in and off West Africa. In East Africa, the total is about 500 wells.

That's changing.

...

Explorers salivate in particular at the prospect of peace in Somalia. Oil reserves in the blocks licensed to two small oil companies, Africa Oil and Range Resources, could contain as much as 10 billion bbl. Nobody is talking about producing oil in Somalia anytime soon, but analysts say oil companies are less likely to be intimidated by political risk than they were in the past. They point to oil production in south Sudan, where a 20-year civil war that ended in 2005 threatens to reignite. "Definitely, there is a sense that there are discoveries to be had," says Aly-Khan Satchu, a financial adviser who runs Rich Management in Nairobi. "The reality and the perception of risk are narrowing."


UPI: East Africa is next hot oil zone
"What happened in Uganda made it easier for smaller companies to raise funding," said Tewodros Ashenafi, head of Southwest Energy, an Ethiopian company exploring in the Ogaden Basin in the east of the country.

This is a vast 135,000-square-mile territory in landlocked Ethiopia that is believed to contain sizable reserves of oil. It is estimated to hold 4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas as well.

Malaysia's Petronas, which recently acquired major blocks in Iraq, signed an exploration agreement with Addis Ababa in August 2007.

The main problem for the oil industry is that the Ogaden, like many parts of Africa, is a conflict zone, as it has been pretty much since the Cold War in the 1970s. This is one reason why exploration has been so tardy.

Separatist rebels of the Ogaden National Liberation Front have warned oil companies to keep away and in April 2007 attacked a Chinese exploration group, killing 74 people.

Petronas is also exploring in the Gambella Basin of western Ethiopia.

Somalia has been torn by wars between feuding militias and clans since dictator Siad Barre was toppled in 1991 but it is also considered to hold considerable oil reserves.

A 1993 study by Petroconsultants of Geneva concluded that Somalia has two of the most potentially interesting hydrocarbon-yielding basins in the entire region -- one in the central Mudugh region, the other in the Gulf of Aden.

That was one of 10 such basins across Somalia, southeast Ethiopia and northeast Kenya.

More recent analyses indicate that Somalia could have reserves of up to 10 billion barrels.

But exploration remains an extremely hazardous undertaking. And it's likely to become more so as the country becomes a major focus for U.S. counter-terrorism operations against al-Qaida and its affiliates who are dug in there.


Noted in issue 341 of Ecoterra International's SMCM,
Meanwhile French clandestine research activities are said to continue in Somali waters and inside the Somali EEZ by the hydro-oceanographic vessel Beautemps Beaupré A758, working for Service Hydrographique et Océanographique de la Marine (SHOM), which has close links with TOTAL, the French oil company. The French research vessel violating the sovreignty of Somalia is protected by French warship NIVOSE.


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VOA: At Least 40 Killed in Mogadishu Fighting
A Somali medical official says at least 40 people have been killed over two days of intense fighting between pro-government forces and Islamist insurgents.

Witnesses say the clashes began in north Mogadishu Wednesday afternoon and escalated when African Union peacekeepers in tanks reinforced government troops. Residents reported heavy shelling overnight into Thursday.


AP: 43 Somalis killed in capital after 2 days of fighting between Islamists and government
Heavy fighting between Somali insurgents and pro-government troops has killed at least 43 people over two days, as African Union peacekeepers (sic) used tanks to help the beleaguered government beat back an insurgent attack, officials said Thursday.

Militants attacking from the north on Wednesday reached to within a mile (2 kilometres) of the presidential place in the heart of the capital, Mogadishu, before African Union peacekeepers (sic) in tanks reinforced government troops, residents said.

Ali Muse, the head of Mogadishu's ambulance service, said he saw 40 bodies lying in the streets over the two days of fighting Wednesday and Thursday. Nearly 150 were wounded, mostly civilians, he said.

"The fighting was heavier than that of yesterday," said Muse. "Our ambulances are sometimes caught in the crossfire. Our ambulance crews use dangerous streets and they have to dodge mortars and bullets. Sometimes it takes us hours to reach injured civilians and because of that they bleed to death."

...

The government is supported by around 5,300 African Union peacekeepers, whose tanks and armoured vehicles help them to outgun the insurgents. The insurgents favour mobile hit-and-run attacks, using snipers and mortar fire to make it hard for the government's poorly trained and irregularly paid soldiers to hold their position.

The peacekeepers used tanks to help government forces when the insurgents got within a mile of the presidential palace, said resident Omar Salad. Other residents confirmed his account.

The insurgents, the government and the peacekeepers have all been criticized by human rights groups for indiscriminately firing into and shelling residential neighbourhoods. But the criticism has had little effect.

"The rebels launched the attack and we had a right to defend. We fended them off and killed many of them, thank God," said Yusuf Mohamed Siyad, Somalia state minister for defence.

"We have forced our enemy to taste the pain of our weapons," said a spokesman for the Islamist al-Shabab militia, Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage.

The government hopes to break the stalemate with an upcoming offensive, but its launch has been delayed by problems that include inadequate equipment and training. There has been a surge in fighting since the beginning of the year, when the offensive was first being publicly discussed.

Even if the government push succeeds, few Somalis trust an administration that has failed to deliver even a semblance of services or security more than a year after it took power.


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Shabelle Media: Somali government finalizes shari'ah-compliant draft constitution
The Transitional Federal Government of Somalia's [TFG] Committee on Constitution has said they have now finished writing the [new] constitution.

The deputy chairman of the TFG committee on constitution and federal affairs, who is also the acting chairman of the committee, Abdikadir Shaykh Ismail, has today [Wednesday] held a news conference in Mogadishu and said they have now concluded the drafting of how the current constitution to be compliant with the Islamic shari'ah.

The official said they will now tabled the new document before the parliament for approval after which it will then become law.

The deputy chairman of the TFG committee on constitution said they will also table the document before the Somali public and religious scholars in the country before it is finally implemented.

The parliamentary committee on constitution had earlier on announced that the document meant to ensure the current constitution is shari'ah complaint, was almost complete.

It is not yet known whether the TFG parliament will approve this document having earlier on voted in favour of the implementation of shari'ah law in the country.


-- -- --

IPS: SOMALIA: U.S. Should Accept Islamist Authority, Report Says
The United States should accept an "Islamist authority" in Somalia as part of a "constructive disengagement" strategy for the war-torn country, according to a new report released here by the influential Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) on Wednesday.

The 39-page report urges the U.S. to recognise that "Islamist authority" even if it includes al-Shabaab, or "the youth" in Arabic, an Islamist insurgent group that has declared loyalty to al Qaeda.

It calls the current U.S. approach toward Somalia of propping up the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) "counterproductive". Not only is it alienating large sections of the Somali population, but it is effectively polarising its diverse Muslim community into so-called "moderate" and "extremist" camps, the report says.

While the report encourages an "inclusive posture" by the U.S. toward local fundamentalists, it suggests the U.S. should show "zero-tolerance' toward transnational actors attempting to exploit Somalia's conflict", apparently referring to al Qaeda.

"The Shabaab is an alliance of convenience and its hold over territory is weaker than it appears. Somali fundamentalists - whose ambitions are mostly local - are likely to break ranks with al-Qaeda and other foreign operatives as the utility of cooperation diminishes," says the report, authored by Bronwyn Bruton, a CFR international affairs fellow. "The United States and its allies must encourage these fissures to expand."

...

The report also warns against continued support for the U.N.-backed TFG since it has proven "ineffective and costly".

"The TFG is unable to improve security, deliver basic services, or move toward an agreement with Somalia's clans and opposition groups that would provide a stronger basis for governance," the report says.

...

Entitled "Somalia , A New Approach", the report comes at a critical moment in the evolution of U.S. policy toward Somalia . Earlier this week, the New York Times reported that U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) are helping the Somali government, which has about 7,000 troops in the capital, plan an impending TFG military offensive aimed at dislodging al-Shabaab fighters from Mogadishu.

The report details two decades of strife in the Horn of Africa nation, the establishment of the TFG, and its ongoing ensuing power struggle with the al-Shabaab's movement and its allies.

Bruton contends that the U.S. policy of providing indirect diplomatic and military support to the weak TFG has only "served to isolate the government, and...to propel cooperation among previously fractured and quarrelsome extremist groups."

The report calls on the United States to make a final attempt to help the Somali government build public support by drawing in leaders of the other Islamist groups. But it urges the administration of President Barack Obama to consider major policy changes should the TFG fail or continue to be marginalised to the point of powerlessness.

...

some analysts believe that the U.S. help could easily lead to strengthening the insurgent movement in an already complicated set of circumstances.

"The administration has decided to move aggressively to support the TFG and is providing training, intelligence, military advice, and hardware to the TFG army in anticipation of a major TFG offensive against al-Shabaab," said David R. Smock, vice president of the United States Institute of Peace's Centre for Mediation and Conflict Resolution.

"This is a major American gamble which could backfire. The offensive could easily fail, which might lead the U.S. to get even more heavily engaged. We have been burned badly in Somalia before, and we could be burned again," he added.

...

The CFR report also recommends a decentralised development strategy in collaboration with "the informal and traditional authorities" on the ground. It calls for restraining Ethiopia, which has been involved in Somalia's conflicts for years.

Bruton suggests that the U.S. should not "own the Somali crisis" and needs to launch a diplomatic campaign to involve European and Middle Eastern countries to support Somalia's stabilisation and address its humanitarian and developments needs.


Here is the link to Bronwyn Bruton's CFR report, Somalia: A New Approach

From the forward, by the CFR's President Haass,
In this Council Special Report, sponsored by CFR's Center for Preventive Action, Bronwyn E. Bruton proposes a strategy to combat terrorism and promote development and stability in Somalia. She first outlines the recent political history involving the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) formed in 2004 and its Islamist opponents, chiefly the Shabaab, which has declared allegiance to al-Qaeda. She then analyzes U.S. interests in the country, including counterterrorism, piracy, and humanitarian concerns, as well as the prospect of broader regional instability.

Bruton argues that the current U.S. policy of supporting the TFG is proving ineffective and costly. The TFG is unable to improve security, deliver basic services, or move toward an agreement with Somalia’s clans and opposition groups that would provide a stronger basis for governance. She also cites flaws in two alternative policies—a reinforced international military intervention to bolster the TFG or an offshore approach that seeks to contain terrorist threats with missiles and drones.

Instead, Bruton advances a strategy of “constructive disengagement.” Notably, this calls for the United States to signal that it will accept an Islamist authority in Somalia—including the Shabaab—as long as it does not impede international humanitarian activities and refrains from both regional aggression and support for international jihad. As regards terrorism, the report recommends continued airstrikes to target al-Qaeda and other foreign terrorists while taking care to minimize civilian casualties. It argues for a decentralized approach to distributing U.S. foreign aid that works with existing local authorities and does not seek to build formal institutions. And the report counsels against an aggressive military response to piracy, making the case instead for initiatives to mobilize Somalis themselves against pirates.


I have not had time yet to read through Bruton's report but I did want to see how much she reveals (or is even aware) of the role of the US in creating this latest incarnation of the TFG. Unfortunately, a search on various actors -- Ranneberger for instance -- returns no matches. Instead, she takes the following position:

The international community had little choice but to swallow its misgivings about the nomination of a former SCIC leader, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, to the presidency and to throw its support behind the revamped TFG.


As we watched throughout that period, the US was quite actively promoting Sh. Sharif as Yusuf's replacement so Mrs. Bruton's analysis starts w/ at least one fundamental flaw.

From a recent interview with Bruton:

You argue in the report that, in many ways, outside intervention, rather than its failed state status, is what has contributed to the rise of Islamic radicals in Somalia.

We always have concerns about failed states because they're in a power vacuum. In the case of Somalia, crimes like piracy have tended to pop up, but the assessment of U.S. intelligence [in a 2007 West Point report] was that Somalia was actually inoculated from foreign jihadist movements, from foreign terrorist groups. They based that assessment on extensive al-Qaeda correspondence intercepted during the 1990s. During the 1990s, al-Qaeda had attempted to work with a local group called Al-Ittihad to establish an emirate in Somalia, and they found themselves really roundly defeated by the clan system and the inhospitability of the environment. Al-Qaeda's experience in Somalia was so terrible that U.S. intelligence basically said, "There's no way they can operate there."

...

The creation of the Shabaab itself can be traced to 2004, the year the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was created. It really sprang up as a counterreaction to international attempts to create some kind of a political regime in Somalia. The Shabaab grew from being a fairly fringe, radical movement, to becoming a popular insurgency in the wake of the Ethiopian invasion which destroyed the Union of Islamic Courts.

...

Doesn't this reconciliation process [between clan factions], which could take decades, leave the country prey to Shabaab and other groups?

The contention of U.S. officials, that if you abandon the TFG you open Somalia to extremist groups, is actually illogical. It's a false assertion that's based on a misreading of Somalia's history and context. Somalia's history shows very clearly that in the absence of international intervention, the country has been quite--"inoculated" is that word intelligence operatives use--against al-Qaeda.


Keep in mind this position expressed by Bruton -- that extremism in Somalia is primarily tied to outside interference violating Somalia's sovereignty -- when reading the next excerpts. Also consider how she refers to the USG's failure to apply logic in its positions...


Is there any kind of nation-building effort in Somalia that could work?

A state-building effort, if you want to do it properly, will require an enormous investment of U.S. resources. The general rule of thumb for the number of peacekeeping troops that would be required of a country of Somalia's population [estimated by the United Nations in 2003 at 9,890,000] and its mix of permissive and non-permissive environments is approximately 100,000. It's impossible to imagine the international community coming up with those kind of numbers for Somalia.

Think of the amount of money that's been spent in Afghanistan. Somalia is worse off than Afghanistan. It has less government infrastructure; there's less consensus on the ground about what government should look like. There's a greater humanitarian crisis, and there's probably a greater hostility to the West. So you are looking at a situation in which you would be pumping billions and billions of dollars a year into Somalia for over a decade. I don't think there's any lawmaker or intelligence operative who would say that the threat that Somalia poses merits that kind of an investment at this stage.

So really what you're looking at is an alternative between the status quo and sort of just trying your best to let Somalia be. And trying your best to let Somalia be doesn't mean that you give up on counterterror activities. I think that there's been some recent incursions by the Obama administration, particularly the attack against Saleh Ali Nabhan [head of a Qaeda cell in Kenya responsible for the 2002 bombing of an Israeli hotel, who was killed in Somalia by American commandoes in September, 2009], which were very successful. U.S. operatives managed to go into Somalia, they killed Nabhan and a couple of his colleagues, and they didn't kill any Somali civilians. And the Somali reaction to that was pretty much, "Oh." It barely caused a ripple.

So there are occasions when the United States can and should intervene militarily in Somalia?

The TFG talks about the threat of terrorism, because that's key to the support it's getting from the West. Likewise, there are factions within the Shabaab that try to exploit the possibility of cooperation with al-Qaeda to get arms and funding from the Middle East. It really is a political game.

The U.S. should feel entitled to use force against foreign operatives who are looking to exploit Somalia's conflict. My sense is that the majority of Somalis would not object to that, as long as Somali civilians are not caught up in the crossfire. The Shabaab is broadly perceived by Somalis as a foreign movement promoting foreign goals, and I don't think that many Somalis are going to have a very hard time accepting that some guy that's come to Somalia bringing guns, disorder, and chaos is going to be wiped out by the United States.

How can you advocate talking with Shabaab, yet also talk about taking action against them militarily?

You can't really use the Shabaab as a broad category. There are people in the Shabaab who are pro-al-Qaeda who want to launch attacks against the United States, who are ideologically motivated. Those individuals are a threat to U.S. interests, and they need to be dealt with militarily. However, the vast majority of the Shabaab are thugs, and people who are opportunistically trying to make a fortune, a profit, in Somalia's conflict. Those people need to be treated differently. The United States has made that recognition in Iraq; it's made that recognition in Afghanistan, between people who are internationally oriented and people who are locally oriented. A major problem with U.S. policy in Somalia is that that sort of logical leap hasn't been taken.


Anyone else see some serious contradictions & logical inconsistencies there?

-- -- --

Reuters:
Residents of the southern port town of Kismayu and Dhobley near the border with Kenya -- which are both controlled by al Shabaab -- reported having seen a helicopter and a larger plane overhead several times over the past few days.

"Al Shabaab fired guns at them but they were beyond reach," Sugaal Kusow, a Kismayu resident, told Reuters. "They were not bombing us, so we assumed they are monitoring planes."


-- -- --

From a rational commentary from Dan Simpson, a veteran (ret.) foreign affairs official whose service included a stint as ambassador & special envoy to Somalia:
Folly in Somalia: We and the rest of the world ought to leave the Somalis to their own devices
Reports that the United States is providing military assistance to the so-called government of Somalia to help it conquer uncontrolled parts of the capital, Mogadishu, reveal continued folly in U.S. policy toward that tormented country.

I could view the situation with icier detachment if I had not served as the last U.S. ambassador and special envoy to Somalia in 1994 and 1995. This role allowed me to get to know some Somalis and to gain a certain understanding of the country, so it is difficult for me to view it coolly, from afar.

...

Somalia has suffered an amazing amount of foreign intervention from 1991 to the present. The United Nations and then the United States intervened in the early 1990s to prevent Somali militias from interfering with humanitarian efforts to meet famine and other disasters in Somalia in the wake of the collapse of government and subsequent clan fighting.

The problem came when the United Nations and the Clinton administration turned from the humanitarian mission to nation re-building. It would have been difficult to keep the humanitarian program going without foreign troops unless a viable government were in place to assure law and order. But it was a question of how to get from a state of almost total disorder to the re-creation of viable government.

When the world tried to take on that chore, the Somalis began to concentrate their efforts on making the foreigners' presence unbearable. Worse, the foreigners had their own view of which Somalis should be running the show.

...

Since [1994], there have been two streams of effort on the part of the world to try to reestablish government in Somalia. One cobbled together a government after months of talk in Kenya. This produced the one that now holds a few blocks of Mogadishu with the help of African Union forces. The other has been up-and-down efforts of an Islamic group called the Shabab to establish rule in Somalia.

The American government has decided that the Shabab is too infected with Islamic extremism, including perhaps influence by al-Qaida, to be permitted to take power, even though it probably would if the African Union withdrew. In the name of keeping the Shabab out, the United States provided air and intelligence support for an invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia in 2006. The Ethiopians eventually found trying to keep the provisional government in power such a miserable business that they withdrew last year.

Now, apparently, U.S. forces are providing arms, advisers and other military support to the African Union and newly trained forces of the provisional government to try to enable them to enlarge the small area of Mogadishu they currently control.

There is reason to believe this effort will fail, partly because the Shabab are determined and their forces large, partly because the African Union forces are not highly motivated to die in Somalia and partly because the provisional government forces are likely to fragment into clans, be ineffectual and eventually loot the American arms, perhaps diverting them to the Shabab and other militias.

So why, apart from the only lightly documented charge of Islamic extremism among the Shabab, is the United States reengaging in Somalia at this time?

Part of the reason is because the United States has its only base in Africa up the coast from Mogadishu, in Djibouti, the former French Somaliland. The U.S. Africa Command was established there in 2008, and, absent the willingness of other African countries to host it, the base in Djibouti became the headquarters for U.S. troops and fighter bombers in Africa.

Flush with money, in spite of the expensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Department of Defense obviously feels itself in a position to undertake military action in Africa, in Somalia. Whether it makes sense to do so, or whether the Somalis would be more likely to set up and consolidate a working government in Mogadishu in the absence of foreign intervention, is another question altogether.

When I left the issue in 1995 I was persuaded that the best thing for Somalia -- and therefore for America and the rest of the world -- was to leave the Somalis to sort out their problems. Given what has happened since, and what is likely to happen now with the new U.S. military effort, I still think so. Why not let the Shabab take the place and then do business with them?

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Somalia thread for the week ending March 7

Garowe Online: Somalia MPs to table no-confidence vote against PM
Somali Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke will face a vote on a motion of no confidence that some 200 Somali lawmakers are planning to table against him in the parliament.

The members of parliament accuse Omar’s government of not doing enough to change the worsening security situation in country, urging to him to face the parliament and get its confidence.

"If Sharmarke’s government gets vote of confidence from the parliament, then it can continue with its work. But if it fails, then the president is required to appoint a new premier who forms a new government," said one of the MPs.

The MP said that the current government is more preoccupied by foreign trips without a giving a thought about the current situation in the country.

However, some other lawmakers have drumming up support for the current government, arguing that it has done wonderful job compared to the parliament, which they was lurked behind.

They are said to be preparing also a motion against Speaker Sheikh Adan Madobe, whom they accuse of the bickering in the parliament.

President Sheikh Sharif is said to be confused by the turn of the events.

Meanwhile, Somalia’s Constitution and Federalism minister Madobe Nunow Mohamed announced that the current Transitional Government would be the last one to govern the Horn of African nation if the ongoing new constitution is finalized and passed.

“The formation of the political parties is the major issue in the constitution which my ministry is working on it right now,” he said.

He adds, “The new constitution would be based on Islamic law, and the committee involved in making is independent.”

He argued that the country would move from one group dominance to civilian oriented government.

The minister of constitution and federalism appointed a committee, which consist of 30 members from the civil society and the government and it will gather ideas from population and orientation.

However, Somalia’s Puntland state, which maintains to remain in a federal Somalia, says it would not take part in any constitutional reform for the country because it was not consulted in the matter and is a unilateral decision.

Representatives of both governments on November failed to agree to harmonize an accord which its first phase was signed by Somali PM and Puntland President on August 23 in central Somali town of Galkayo.

If passed, the new constitution will change the national charter of Somali TFG, which was formed six years ago in neighboring Kenya. It would allow Somali citizens to elect their representatives directly rather than pin pointed by the clan.


-- -- --

Garowe Online: WFP continue with aid work in Somalia: spokesman
A spokesman for the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) says the agency will continue distributing food aid to war-torn Somalia despite Islamist Al-Shabaab insurgent group orders to cease all its humanitarian operations.

Al-Shabaab, which controls much of south Somalia, accused the world food agency of giving out-of-date foodstuffs, undermining farmers and working under hidden political agenda

"WFP is determined to help the people of Somalia in need of assistance regardless of who controls the areas in which they live, as long as it is safe for our staff to do so," said WFP spokesman Peter Smerdon in Nairobi.


Shabelle Media: Farmers in southwestern Somalia welcome ban on WFP operations
armers in Baardheere District of Gedo Region, southwestern Somalia, have said they will start to cultivate their farms knowing that their harvest will fetch them good money. The farmers welcomed Islamist Al-Shabab's decision to ban WFP operations in the region, reports independent leading broadcaster Radio Shabeelle.

The farmers described the ban as a positive move to enhance agricultural produce in the country.

Al-Shabab administration recently took over WFP stores in the region and distributed food aid to hundreds of vulnerable people in the region.

WFP had suspended its operations in southern and southwestern Somalia in January after it received threats from Al-Shabab.


SimbaNews: Shabab urges farmers to produce more food
Al Shabab Movement officials in middle Shabelle urged farmers in the region to redouble food production a day after Shabab reiterated their ban on wfp which they accuse of harming Somali farmers.In a statement shabab warned Somali people against working with wfp and threatened to take measure against anyone who works with WFP.

Shabab officials told participants to produce food that can cover the needs of the people in the region as well as other regions to make up for the suspension of food rations by WFP. “Wfp food distribution has been fully banned, so you should rely on yourselves and produce the food we need” said senior shabab commander who did not want to be named. “We told them to buy food from Somali farmers”.

Meanwhile farmers who participated the meeting welcomed shabab decision and accused wfp of harming Somali farmers by importing large quantities of food during the harvest seasons. “We are ready to redouble our food production but we are facing many problems“.

Wfp accused shabab of imposing difficult and unacceptable conditions on them, a move that forced them to suspend rations Shabab controlled areas of the country.


Here is a link (again) to the FSNAU's Post Deyr '09/10 Analysis [pdf] for an idea of local food production figures across the various regions.

-- -- --

What, exactly, is a "monthership"?

AFP: NATO sinks Somali pirate monthership (sic)
BRUSSELS — A Danish warship, the Absalon, sunk a Somali pirate "mothership" in the Indian Ocean, a NATO spokesman said Monday.

The Absalon, flagship of NATO's counter-piracy efforts off the Horn of Africa, "disrupted a piracy attack in the Somali basin on Sunday and then scuttled a mothership," the spokesman said.

The 'mother-ships' are used to move attack teams into an area from which they can launch raids on passing ships.

"This was a very well executed operation," said Commodore Christian Rune, commander of NATO's anti-piracy mission.

"Disrupting the pirates? capability just off their main pirate camps sends a strong signal to the pirates that NATO and the international community do not tolerate their actions" he added in a statement from the operation's British base.

"Disposing of their vessels before they can head to sea hits the pirates before they can present a threat to merchant shipping," he added.


More details/context on this story from Ecoterra International's SMCM Issue 336,

VIKINGS IN PIRATE-BOY BASHING EXERCISE OFF THE COAST OF SOMALIA
"NATO says one of its destroyers has sunk a "pirate mothership" in the Indian off the Somali coast" - wire service. An official statement said the Danish warship HDMS Absalon disrupted on Sunday a pirate operation by “scuttling” a pirate skiff, one of the boats Somali gangs use to transport attack teams to hunting areas far off the coast.

NATO anti-piracy spokeswoman Shona Lowe said the action occurred in the Somali Basin, a term the alliance uses to denote the Indian Ocean rather than the adjacent Gulf of Aden where most pirate attacks take place, AP explains.

Lowe said she could not immediately provide further details on the incident.

NATO news service then blew it out of proportion with the headline: "Danish NATO destroyer sinks pirate mothership off Somalia."

Reports from the ground speak of a rather small open coastal fishing vessel made from fibreglass with an inboard Volvo Penta engine, which was nabbed and later sunk by the military might of the Danish warship, like other navies had done and celebrated it before, creating huge fireballs due to the many plastic containers with fuel these boats carry for longer trips.

Produced under a Swedish development project and introduced into Somalia in the 80s two types of these small and open fishing boats were produced for the artisanal fisheries at the Somali coast: One is a 5-7m skiff, which the Somali fishermen lovingly call "Leila Alawi" after a famous Egyptian singer, which is powered by a "singing" petrol outboard engine of usually 40HP and the other is what the Somalis call "Volva" a 10-12m fishing boat with an inboard Volo Penta diesel.

"While it is true that the tiny skiff is often used as a kind of a fast boat to attack merchant vessels and the slightly larger one is used to carry fuel and food for the sea-shifta, the picture which certain media paint for the global news is certainly overdrawn," stated Andrew Mwangura of the East African Seafarers Assistance programme. "A real mothership is rather a commandeered larger vessel with strong double engines, a commando stand and cabins, like the FV EKAWATNAVA 5, which was blown out of the water by the Indian navy - killing 15 of the 16 men crew, while the pirates escaped," he explained.

"Though overstated, the Danish Navy and NATO at least are honest and report such incidents", commented an analyst working with ECOTERRA Intl. and added: "We observe an increasing number of such attacks by the international navies against Somalis - those caught red-handed and potential pirates as well as innocent fishermen alike -, which go completely unreported by the navies. Over four hundred names are now on our list of Somalis missing at sea."

In the moment there is still conflicting information from Somalia concerning the location where Sunday's incident happened - some say about 40-50 nm off the coast and well inside the 200nm zone, while others maintain that the group was found by the Navy ship without food outside the 200nm zone. It would be good if NATO comes clear.

However, the Danish warship - after first arresting and allegedly beating the eleven men and then exploding and sinking their boat - brought the Somali group back to the coast between Haradheere and Hobyo, from where they went home minus weapons and boat. It could not yet be clarified if that boat belonged to a pirate group or was stolen from the local fishermen for the trip and it must be noted that every Somali actually has a right to carry weapons on their seas, except for a small stretch near Mogadishu, where the TFG had tried to impose an gun ban on the fishermen.

Since this incident was said by local observers to have happened off the notorious pirate den of Harardheere, it might well have been the case that one of the gangs - after a good number of sea-jacked vessels were released recently - went out to sea again for another take, but legally the last word is not yet spoken concerning such action by the Danish navy under NATO command while being inside the 200nm zone of Somalia, because none of the anti-piracy agreements the international community tried to close with the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia or some Somali Regional Governments has been approved or ratified by the Somali parliament. This applies also for the UN Security Concil Resolutions, which could - as made conditional by these resolutions themselves - only could be valid legally implementable, if the Somali government in form of its parliament would have consented or actually demanded such assistance - which never was the case. Utterances and even signatures by individual Somali politicians - often coerced into such affairs by foreign promises - don't count.


-- -- --

SMC: Somali Fishermen censure foreign vessels
Some of the Somali fishermen, are strongly censuring the foreign vessels which are claiming to be guarding the Somali waters from Somali pirates hijacking commercial ships which are voyaging the Somali waters and as well as off of the coast of Somalia.

Hussein Barqad a veteran Somali fisherman, who has contacted Somaliweyn Website,
has strongly criticized the NATO and EU sea guards, which he said cannot differentiate who is pirate and who is not.

“It was on Sunday when these so called EU and NATO troops, caught 5 of us in our fishing boat, and they took us to deep sea, and they tortured us, and they have later released us, they even threatened us with their gunpoint” said Hussein Barqad.

Mr. Hussein has also added that these troops have taken valuable materials from them such their fishing nets, and flung their cooking stuff into the sea.


-- -- --

Where are all those western MSM headlines and selectively outraged right-wing bloggers with regards to this story...?

Mareeg Online: Moderate Islamists execute a man
Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a moderate Islamist group has executed a man in a town in Galgadud region in central Somalia, an official said on Monday.

Aden Abdi Isse known as Garase, an official from Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a said they have executed the man accused of killing another man in Bergadig Village in Hiraan region.

Mr. Garase said they have been looking for this man and finally captured him. He added they executed the man according to the Islamic Sharia.

“We have executed a young man who has killed another man in the street of village deliberately and in robbery way,” said Mr. Garase.

“The relatives of the two sides were present in the execution,” He added.

Aden Garase has also indicated there were robbers in prisons captured by Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a forces and were waiting court.


-- -- --

Related to last Sunday's article on Bell Pottinger's PR programs in Mogadishu, Biyokulule Online has a short collection of articles on psyops efforts in the early 1990's to convince Somalis that those gum-chewing, gun-toting marines were there with only the best intentions, including these bits from a June 19, 1993 segment on All Things Considered

Daniel Zwerdling reports on the U.N. attempts to gain the support of the Somali people. The U.N. has set up a radio station and is distributing a newsletter to tell the Somalis how the U.N. has helped them.

GUEST(S): TED BARNES, Media Director; Capt. DOUG MANN

U.N. Waging Propaganda War in Somalia

KATIE DAVIS, Host: United Nations troops continue to search for Somali clan leader Mohamed Farah Aidid today as 2,000 of his supporters demonstrated against the U.N. and its presence in the country. The other battle the U.N. is waging is one for the hearts and minds of the Somalis. As NPR`s Daniel Zwerdling reports from the capital, Mogadishu, the weapons are a newsletter and a radio station.

DANIEL ZWERDLING, Reporter: Radio Manta {sp}, the voice of the United Nations operation in Somalia, hits the airwaves seven times a day, six days a week; they shut down on the Muslim holy day of Friday. If you`re passing through Somalia, you might catch it on your shortwave dial.

{excerpt of radio broadcast}

ZWERDLING: The U.S.-military officials who run the radio station say they don`t want to bludgeon people with propaganda - they want to have a program that appeals to the general population, so they start with some chanting from the Koran-

{sound of chanting}

...

ZWERDLING: On today`s U.N. broadcast, the newscaster leads with a U.N. general`s account of the attack earlier this week on Aidid`s headquarters. The report condemns Aidid`s forces as `brutal,` and hails the U.N. forces as `heroes.` But a couple days ago, the newscast reported that an American soldier had been charged with assaulting two Somalis. As psychological warfare goes, this is a pretty low-key operation. A few U.S. soldiers work with nine part-time Somalis knocking out stories on a word processor. Their radio studio is the size of a closet and when you hear the programs on the air, you hear the constant drone of an air conditioner going full blast just a few feet from the announcer, media director Ted Barnes {sp}.

...

ZWERDLING: It`s a tricky business figuring out exactly what kinds of messages will appeal to a given population, whether you`re talking about commercial advertisements or psychological warfare, and in this case, U.S. soldiers say, they realize they face an extra-tough sales job because a lot of their audience supports the enemy, warlord Mohamed Aidid. So, they`re experimenting. Earlier today, I found Captain Doug Mann {sp} working on a piece for tomorrow`s newsletter - a Somali version of the children`s story, `The Little Red Hen.`

{interviewing} Have you ever written children`s stories before this assignment?

Capt. DOUG MANN: I`ve written them, I`ve told them - I`ve got six kids.

ZWERDLING: In case you don`t have any kids and forget the first grade, the story is about a hen who asked her neighbors to help bake bread, but they all refuse to chip in, so when the bread`s finished, the hen refuses to share it. Mann says he`s ending this version of the story by pointing out that Somalis can`t enjoy peace unless they all cooperate.

Capt. MANN: You can`t sit by and let everybody else do the work for you. Everybody has to contribute to the peace. Now`s the time to step forward and do what`s right and what`s just and turn in the weapons so that Mogadishu can again return to peace. We have had some success with it, but not as much as we`d like.

ZWERDLING: Meanwhile, another soldier is writing tomorrow`s cartoon strip. The cartoon, which appears every day, is about a young man and his wise, philosophical camel who`s always doing and saying sensible things. In today`s cartoon, the camel says, `We thank Allah for what the United Nations is doing for us. The roads are now clear and we can travel freely.` - statements which many people here find to be exaggerated. The Americans running the media operation say their sense is that both the newsletter and radio show are popular all over Mogadishu. When I made a brief survey amongst Somalis standing along the street, I did not hear the same enthusiasm. Some told me they don`t listen to a word of the broadcasts because it`s all American and U.N. lies. One woman told me she reads the newsletter, not so much because she likes its, but because all the other newspapers went out of business during the civil war. At least the United Nations news, she said, is better than nothing. I`m Daniel Zwerdling in Mogadishu.


-- -- --

From an article Tuesday at SMC
The spokesman the regional administration of Al-Shabab in the Jubbah regions in southern Somalia Sheikh Hassan Yakub has on Tuesday said that the Kenyan government has signed a new contract with the western countries to fight us.

“We have got very reliable tips that the government of Kenya has signed a new contract with the western countries to fight us, similar to previous contract which Ethiopia has signed with the western countries, but we assure you that Kenya will suffer a lot if it attempts to provoke us” said Sheikh Hassan Yakub speaking to Somaliweyn Website.

The spokesman has also added that the Kenyan government has been lately deploying its troops in the boarder between Kenya and Somali, and said that they have closely monitoring their movements.

“These maneuvers of theirs will take them to nowhere and they cannot scare us like that, we shall win over them and we know that there are militants from the Ogaden National Liberation Front who are in the frontier backing the Kenyan troops, these are all minor to us” added Sheikh Hassan Yakub.


-- -- --

More propaganda on propaganda

AP: Somalia war moves to the airwaves

As the propaganda war intensifies in the battered Horn of Africa nation, the government is using a newly modernized radio station to get its own message across to more Somalis, and the U.N. is financing a new radio station.

...

For its part, the Somali government in October upgraded its Radio Mogadishu in the capital, changing antiquated equipment that had limited broadcast range. The station is now accessible worldwide via satellite or the Web.

Mohamed Guled Sheik, who lives in an area of the capital that's controlled by al-Shabab, listens to Radio Mogadishu on headphones for safety reasons. He said he especially likes the news and a daily show that pokes fun at al-Shabab's actions. Radio Mogadishu also broadcasts lectures by prominent Islamic scholars who praise modernism and dramas depicting radical Islamists as villains.

"I know I'm risking my life. But I need a different point of view," said Sheik, a father of nine who runs an electronics shop at the city's main Bakara Market. "Radio Mogadishu is not afraid of angering Islamists and exposing their mistakes. But all the other stations are."

Joining the fray, the U.N. is providing $1.7 million for a new radio station — called Bar-kulan, which means "the meeting place" in Somali — which ran a test transmission on Monday, said David Smith, its director. Programs will include debates on Somali affairs, call-in shows hosted by an Islamic scholar, news, sports and music.

"It is an independent station. If there is a good news to report we will report it and if there is a bad news to report we will report it. Even if it is about al-Shabab or the government," said Smith.

Information Minister Dahir Mohamud Gelle told AP he is confident the government can counter al-Shabab's efforts.

"I have high hopes that eventually we will defeat the anti-government propaganda," said Gelle. He said the government media strategy is based on "disseminating the truth and speaking to the conscience of those with twisted ideologies."


MPR: Somali information chief says war fueled by 'dueling messages'
St. Paul, Minn. — The minister of information for Somalia's embattled government says he is in a war of another kind with rebel groups threatening to destroy any hope for stability in the ravaged East African Country.

Rather than relying on guns and mortar attacks, this battle is fueled by dueling messages, says Dahir Gelle, Somalia's minister of information. His country's weak government is trying to fend off the extremist group al-Shabaab, which has gained control of much of southern Somalia.

Gelle will join a U.S. State Department official [Don Yamamoto, the State Department's principal deputy assistant secretary] tonight [TUesday] at the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Center for a discussion on U.S. foreign policy in the war-ravaged East African nation.

Last fall, Gelle helped revive Radio Mogadishu, a nationally run FM radio station that had gone silent for nearly 20 years. Al-Shabaab has ordered residents under its control not to listen to the station, but Gelle says the ban has had the opposite effect.

"We are witnessing an increase of listeners," he told MPR News. "The Somali people (interpreted the ban) as urging them to listen because, as human beings, when someone tells you not to listen, you wonder what's going on." But some Somali-Americans fear the government is losing the communications battle, with groups like al-Shabaab portraying the government as puppets of foreign infidels.


Anyone trying to claim that they are not is waging a losing battle...

..Gelle says the re-launch of Radio Mogadishu is a key victory. He says the Web site has attracted nearly 500,000 visitors over the last two and a half months.


Good luck trying to find data via the larger web tracking services like Alexa, Quantcast, Compete or URL Trends. Google's AdPlanner estimates 22-43k unique visitors and 240k visits.

During Gelle's stateside tour, which included Washington D.C. and will continue in Columbus, Ohio, he is asking U.S. officials to increase financial and logistical support for his country, and to make a similar case to other countries who may be able to help. He says his discussions with State Department officials thus far have been positive, although he declined to offer details.

"We have basically received very good assurances that they are going to support the Somali government and the Somali people," Gelle said. "And we hope in the coming weeks or coming months, we might hear better news, and the level of support might be increased, hopefully."


-- -- --

Where are all those western MSM headlines and selectively outraged right-wing bloggers with regards to this story...?

SMC: Ahlu-Sunnah Waljama demands for censorship of journalists
Armed, but moderate Islamist faction who controls much of central Somalia has on Tuesday said that all journalists in central region to register with them in 3 days time so that they can monitor and censor the work of the journalists in their region of control.

In a press conference Sheikh Abdullah Abdurrahman Abuu Yussuf Al-Qadi the head of the information department of Ahlu-Sunnah Waljama has officially announced that the entire journalists in the region to register within a period of three days.

“The press can create a favorable atmosphere among people of different races to live in harmony, and at the same time it has the ability to create enmity and abhorrence, among the population, so our decree of today doesn’t actually mean that we are pressuring the journalists, we cannot deny the role which the Somali media has played in these 20 years of anarchy in their country, I confess that it was a lion role” said Abuu Al-Qadi the head of the information department of Ahlu-Sunnah Waljama.

Abuu Qadi has also added that their aim and objective is merely to monitor the reports that which the stringers are sending are really based on facts.

“Sometimes back we have seen some stringers sending baseless reports to their respective stations, in fact that is not the way a reporter who is in the field of journalism should work, if you are a journalist you words should be based on facts and not faults” added Abuu Qadi.

On the other hand the administration of Ahlu-Sunnah Waljama has asked the entire humanitarian agencies on the ground to register with them similar to that of the journalists.


-- -- --

SMC: Foreign vessels dump Somali fishermen at the coast
The foreign vessels on the surface of the Somali waters have overnight dumped at least 22 men which are believed to be all ordinary local fishermen along the coast of Haradere at Mudug region in central Somalia.

Reports which Somaliweyn Website has received from the immediate location of Fah where exactly the Somalis were dumped says that there wee 22 Somalis who were unload at the coast.

“In fact some of these men were identified by the local residents and they termed them as local fishermen and not pirates, some of them their bodies had bruises, and seemed to have been tortured” said Mahad Ali a resident in Fah location where these people were dumped speaking to Somaliweyn Website.

One of the victims who spoke to Somaliweyn Website in a low unclear voice said that they had their boats in the sea trapping fish, but unfortunately they were mistaken us pirates, and the entire of their fishing materials including their boats 5 of their boats were burnt in front of thief faces.

The district commissioner of Adado district in Galgadud region in central Somalia honorable Abdi Elmi has as well verified that those victimized people were not pirates, but ordinary fishermen.


-- -- --

Careful with that phrasing, guys...

AP: US looking into helping train Somali forces
The U.S. is considering joining a European Union effort to train a new army for Somalia, whose government is engaged in a war against al-Qaida-linked Islamic militants, a senior military official said Thursday.

Maj. Gen. Richard J. Sherlock, head of plans for the U.S. Africa Command said there is considerable scope for cooperation with the EU training program.

Washington has so far not participated in the effort to support the nascent Somali army, which is seen as crucial to bringing stability to a country that has been without a functional government for nearly two decades.

...

"We will look to contribute to the international effort to support Somalia's transitional government," Sherlock said.

Sherlock and Ambassador Anthony Holmes, in charge of the command's civil-military affairs office, said they were in Brussels to meet with senior EU officials and explore ways the U.S. military could contribute to the training and equipping of Somali forces.

"We're now looking into how to align our cooperation," Sherlock said. He noted that the U.S. had strong expertise it could contribute, particularly in training a professional core of noncommissioned officers, which form the backbone of any army.


-- -- --

SMC: AU troops move to a new zone in Mogadishu
The African Union troops in Mogadishu have on Friday moved into Digfer the biggest hospital at Hodan district in Mogadishu which has been inactive since the collapse of the last effective central government of Somali led by late President Mohammed Siyad Barre in the year 1991.

“It was on the daybreak of Friday when we have seen the African Union troops with their
Armoured Personnel Carries in and around Digfer hospital they told to be calm and minimize our movement” said Muse Gelle a resident living just near Digfer hospital speaking to Somaliweyn Website.

When the Ethiopian troops reached to Somali capital Mogadishu the hospital was a base for them, and after their withdrawal from the country it has become a base for a company of the Somali government soldiers and it has become a base for the African Union troops.

It is not manifest the reason as to why the African Union troops have moved into Digfre hospital. Since the collapse of the last effective government of Somali their hospital has been a place where hundreds of Internal Displaced Persons were dwelling.

In the hospital is located in the frontline between the Somali transitional federal government soldiers and the armed Islamists rivals, and there had been speculations that the Somali government is intending to go into fight with its armed rival Islamists.


Mareeg Online: Fresh clashes erupt in Mogadishu
Fresh clashes between government Soldiers backed by African Union peacekeepers and Islamist rebels have erupted in Mogadishu on Friday.

Witnesses say at least three civilians have been injured in the fresh clashes in Mogadishu and several houses were destroyed in by mortars.

The clashes came after the African Union forces moved to former Digfer hospital in Mogadishu and made a base there.

Hawo Ali, a resident in Hodan district in Mogadishu said she saw African Union soldiers known as AMISOM with armoured vehicles moving towards Former Digfer hospital and ex Banadir secondary school where they have also made search operations.

She expressed concern about the movement of the African Union troops and the government soldiers.

The situation is calm now and the areas of the clashes are under the control of the AMISOM troops and the government soldiers.


Shabelle Media adds
Locals also said AMISOM troops had made new positions at Badir High School, Digfer hospital and Hoga hospital, all the flashpoint area which most of the clashes continued in the past.

“There is no movement of people, traffic and business at here. We have the fears of the fighting between the two sides and the new troops who reached around our houses,” said one of the women in areas.

The real aim that the African Union troops and the government soldiers formed new military bases in the area is unclear so far and the fighting seems following other clashes that continued in parts of Hodan district in Mogadishu recently.


-- -- --

SMC: Hizbul-Islam says Ahmed Madobe is not one of them
The administration of Hizbul-Islam in Gedo region, an armed rival Islamists faction in Somalia which controls a small portion of the country unlike Al-Shabab has declared that Ahmed Madobe a man who is leading a gorilla war against Al-Shabab in the thick jungles of the lower jubbah regions in Somalia is not a member in their faction.

Sheikh Farhan Cilmoge the newly appointed regional commissioner of Hizbul-Islam
in Gedo region has strongly censured the action of Sheikh Ahmed Madobe.

“I am frankly telling you that Ahmed Madobe is not a member of Hizbul-Islam he is an agent for Ethiopia and Kenya and we have been closely following to assure this and we have eventually got evidences that he is a representative for these two countries in Somali soil” said Sheikh Fahan.

Ahmed Madobe has gone into deadly combat with Al-Shabab and the last his confrontation with Al-Shabab was in February in the town of Dhobley.

The Chairman of Hizbul-Islam Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and the big officials of HIzbul-Islam have always been reiterating that Ahmed Madobe is effective figure in Hizbul-Islam representing them in the southern Jubbah regions in Somalia.


Garowe Online: Hizbul official accuse colleagues of weakening Islamists
A top official of Somalia’s Hizbul Islam has lambasted his colleagues over the war against Al-Shabaab in southern Somalia.

Sheikh Farhan Abdi Ali Moge, who was recently appointed the groups chairman in Gedo region, accused his fellow group members Sheikh Ahmed Madobe and Sheikh Mohammed Maalin executing foreign-backed agendas to destabilize Somali Islamists.

“The war Sheikh Ahmed Madobe is waging was planned in Kenya and Ethiopia and backed by the Transitional Federal Government. It is meant to cripple the strength of Islamist in Somalia,” he said.

“I am also categorically pointing accusing fingers on Sheikh Mohammed Maalin, the groups Press Secretary who supports Sheikh Madobe agendas of putting the group at loggerheads with Al-Shabaab,” he added.

His remarks come days after Sheikh Ahmed Madobe described Al-Shabaab as his number one enemy, vowing to wipe it out of the country.

Al-Shabaab, which broke ranks with Hizbul Islam over the control of southern Somali regions, has all along being insisting that Madobe is an Ethiopian-backed individual has is out there to wreak chaos amongst the Islamists.


-- -- --

Garowe Online: Aweys: Madobe is still part of Hizbul Islam
The leader of Somalia’s Hizbul Islam group, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys has reiterated that Sheikh Ahmed Mohammed Islam ‘Madobe’ is still part of his group.

Sheikh Aweys who was addressing congregation at Bakara Market, directly responded to a claim by one of the group’s top official in Gedo region, who accused Madobe of executing agendas backed by Ethiopia and Kenya.

"I can say Sheikh El-Moge was talking from his own personal views. It does not represent the views of the group,” he said.

...

Aweys said the war between his group and Al-Shabaab over the control Kismayo, a lucrative port city is an economical one and can not be translated into a religious affairs.

“If we look back at the fight over Kismayo, I can say it was a worldly affair. We were angered by the way Al-Shabaab unilaterally elected administration for the town to accumulate wealth and discard us. The war will continue if quick solution is not found,” he stated.

Commenting about the decision by his former deputy Sheikh Hassan Abdullahi Al-Turki to join Al-Shabaab, he said the official has taken his own decision with out discussing with any one in the group.

“It is surprising that Sheikh Hassan Turki, who was behind the formation of Hizbul Islam, thinks that Al-Shabaab is more powerful than Hizbul Islam,” he said.

The 65-year old cleric accused Al-Shabaab of labeling all its oppositions include his group as religious apostates, urging them to stop the war and allow reconciliation to consolidate the powers of Islamists in the country.


-- -- --

This news on the role of the u.s. in training Somali forces is hardly a surprise. The real question is whether there is anything more to the planted leak wrt SOF boots on the ground again than just scare or incitement tactics - who or what exactly determines the identification of "dislodged al-qa'idah terrorists"?

NYT: U.S. Aiding Somalia in Its Plan to Retake Its Capital
The Somali government is preparing a major offensive to take back this capital block by crumbling block, and it takes just a listen to the low growl of a small surveillance plane circling in the night sky overhead to know who is surreptitiously backing that effort.

“It’s the Americans,” said Gen. Mohamed Gelle Kahiye, the new chief of Somalia’s military, who said he recently shared plans about coming military operations with American advisers. “They’re helping us.”

That American assistance could be crucial to the effort by Somalia’s government to finally reassert its control over the capital and bring a semblance of order to a country that has been steeped in anarchy for two decades. For the Americans, it is part of a counterterrorism strategy to deny a haven to Al Qaeda, which has found sanctuary for years in Somalia’s chaos and has helped turn this country into a magnet for jihadists from around the world.

The United States is increasingly concerned about the link between Somalia and Yemen, a growing extremist hot spot, with fighters going back and forth across the Red Sea in what one Somali watcher described as an “Al Qaeda exchange program.”

But it seems there has been a genuine shift in Somali policy, too, and the Americans have absorbed a Somali truth that eluded them for nearly 20 years: If Somalia is going to be stabilized, it is going to take Somalis.

“This is not an American offensive,” said Johnnie Carson, the assistant secretary of state for Africa. “The U.S. military is not on the ground in Somalia. Full stop.”

He added, “There are limits to outside engagement, and there has to be an enormous amount of local buy-in for this work.”

Most of the American military assistance to the Somali government has been focused on training, or has been channeled through African Union peacekeepers. But that could change. An American official in Washington, who said he was not authorized to speak publicly, predicted that American covert forces would get involved if the offensive, which could begin in a few weeks, dislodged Qaeda terrorists.

“What you’re likely to see is airstrikes and Special Ops moving in, hitting and getting out,” the official said.


Over the past several months, American advisers have helped supervise the training of the Somali forces to be deployed in the offensive, though American officials said that this was part of a continuing program to “build the capacity” of the Somali military, and that there has been no increase in military aid for the coming operations.

The Americans have provided covert training to Somali intelligence officers, logistical support to the peacekeepers, fuel for the maneuvers, surveillance information about insurgent positions and money for bullets and guns.

Washington is also using its heft as the biggest supplier of humanitarian aid to Somalia to encourage private aid agencies to move quickly into “newly liberated areas” and deliver services like food and medicine to the beleaguered Somali people in an effort to make the government more popular.


...

..officials say that this offensive, or at least the preparations for it, feels different. First, the government has the advantage of numbers, about 6,000 to 10,000 freshly trained troops, compared with about 5,000 on the side of Al Shabab and its allies.

In the past six months, Somalia has farmed out young men to Djibouti, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and even Sudan for military instruction and most are now back in the capital, waiting to fight. There are also about 5,000 Ugandan and Burundian peacekeepers, with 1,700 more on their way, and they are expected to play a vital role in backing up advancing Somali forces.

The government is also better armed and equipped. Parked in neat rows behind Villa Somalia, the president’s hilltop villa in the center of Mogadishu, are newly painted military trucks, tanks, armored personnel carriers and dozens of “technicals,” pickup trucks with their windshields sawed off and a cannon riveted on the back of each one. The government also recently bought 10 Chevrolet ambulances.

There seems to be a qualitative difference, too. Somalia’s forces are now led by General Gelle, a colonel in Somalia’s army decades ago who most recently was an assistant manager at a McDonald’s in Germany. He is known among Somali war veterans as one of the best Somali officers still alive.


Shows how dubious those recent stmts by AFRICOM's Sherlock and a public affairs flak at the Brussels roundtable were:
Q: At the moment, the US is not actually engaged in training Somali troops.

MAJ GEN SHERLOCK: No, we’re not involved in the direct training of Somali troops.

PAO: We’re not directly involved right now with Somalia.


Right...

Anyway, there is no military solution for Somalia. The TFG does not have very much of a support base (excluding foreigners) and thinking you can kill and terrorize enough Somalis in Mogadishu into supporting it isn't going to work out anything like you might expect it to. It will only make the situation more volatile & remove any doubts in even the most naive as to who calls the shots in the presidential villa. And if the plan includes offensives throughout southern and central Somalia - good luck trying to contain that. Think you have a political Islam problem now? Just wait.

-- -- --

From a recent blog post at Inner City Press:
On March 4, Inner City Press asked [UN spokesman Martin] Nesirky to explain Ould Abdallah's recent call for UN agencies to return to Somalia when he himself can't or won't move to Mogadishu, but rather works out of Nairobi. Nesirky acknowledged it look contradictory and said he would get an answer. But thirty hours later, there was no answer.


-- -- --

SMC: Mogadishu fishermen glum with extortion from Somali Marine Force
The Somali fishermen particularly those in Hamarweyne and Shangani districts in Banadir region are complaining of the Somali marine force, who often asks them for what they have termed as extortion money.

“We cannot be silent for more than this and it is the time to say enough is enough, the Somali Marine Force are frequently asking us to pay them extort money which is not legal because if
it could have been legal there would have something a ticket to verify that we have paid money” said Bashir Yussuf the spokesman of the Fishermen in Hamarweyne district in Bandir region speaking to Somaliweyn Website on Saturday.

The spokesman has also added that they have reported the matter to the big government officials, and so far nothing has been done to curb the situation.

Mr. Basihir said that each fishing boat which goes into the sea for fishing is suppose to pay 100 Somali shillings which is equivalent to something to do with $3.5, and if you come back with fish he said you will be charged again.

”Not only that we face constant threats from the Marine Force, and sometimes torture, and the government is yet looking at the matter with wide open eyes which means nothing to us” added Mr. Bashir.

Mr. Bashir has strongly denied statement released by the Somali Marine Force admiral Farah Qare saying that there are no complains which have come from the side of the Banadir Fishermen regarding about the frequent irregularities which comes from the Somali Marine Force.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Somalia thread for the week ending February 28

AllPuntland: Former Somali MP says US agents operating in Mogadishu
Salah Ismail Nur alias Salah Badbaado who is a former MP [who recently quit and joined H.S.M.] has said senior American commanders are present in areas that are under the control of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia [TFG] to protect their interests in the country.

Salah said these commanders are in Mogadishu to pursue American interests in Somalia and said there is a possibility that they might carry out powerful explosion attacks in civilian areas that are densely populated in order to make it look like they were carried out by the Al-Shabab movement.

Badbaado said some of the issues that are ongoing in areas that are under the control of the TFG are unbearable and added that foreign commanders arrive in Mogadishu almost everyday to engage in acts that undermine the teachings of the Islamic Shari'ah. Badbaado said the President of the TFG who has earlier on said he will rule the country according to the Islamic Shari'ah consents to the activities of these foreign commanders. Salah who is a former member of the Federal Somalia Parliament also spoke on last year's explosion attacks in Shamow hotel in Mogadishu and said investigations into the incident could not go past officials of the TFG. The former MP said they have questioned the TFG prime minister and Speaker of Parliament who have failed to provide them with adequate answers.

"We asked Adan Madobe why those responsible for the explosion attacks could not be ascertained and he said a committee has been sent and we do not know what their findings were. They just remained silent he said. This was an indication enough to us that the TFG officials were responsible for it," said Salah Badbaado who confirmed doubts by many who believe that the TFG was responsible for the explosion attacks that took place in Shamow hotel.

A committee appointed by the TFG to investigate the explosion attacks in Shamow hotel has went its separate ways. The names of the members in this committee have not been released to the media as the president just made a mere mention of their existence on the media. The statement by Salah Badbaado comes at a time when reports on presence of American organizations in Mogadishu have recently emerged. Some of the officials in these American organizations are said to have been accompanying Yusuf Siyad Muhammad Indhacade [Minister of State for Defence] when he was being targeted with explosion attacks earlier this month.


From January

Press TV: Blackwater/Xe mercs arrive in Somalia, Al-Shabab says
...
There are also allegations of US-sponsored bomb plots in the capital.

The bombings will be carried out in order to create a pretext to launch a campaign against Al-Shabab, a spokesman of the group, Sheikh Ali Mohammed Rage, told Reuters.

"We have discovered that US agencies are going to launch suicide bombings in public places in Mogadishu," he told reporters. "They have tried it in Algeria, Pakistan and Afghanistan… We warn of these disasters. They want to target Bakara Market and mosques, then use that to malign us."

At a meeting with tribal elders in Mogadishu on Monday, the Al-Shabab spokesman said that mercenaries of the Xe private security firm — formerly known as Blackwater — have arrived in the Somali capital, the Press TV correspondent in Mogadishu reported on Monday.

Blackwater/Xe mercenaries plan to carry out bombings in Mogadishu in order to accuse Al-Shabab of being the culprits in the attacks, the Al-Shabab spokesman added.

He went on to say that the Blackwater/Xe mercenaries have already recruited many lackeys to help them carry out bombings targeting prominent individuals and innocent civilians.


Earlier this week,

Garowe Online: Explosion rocks Mogadishu location under Al Shabaab control
At least six people, including three Al-Shabaab fighters have been killed in an explosion and targeted assassinations in the restive capital Mogadishu, officials and witnesses said on Monday.

The explosion rocked an intersection called Bar-Ubax located near Al-Shabaab-held Bakara Market, killing three people who are said to be the planting the landmines.

The explosions were powerful which was caused by two landmines. We don’t know the people behind it because the area is controlled by anti-government forces,” said a resident who requested not to be identified.

However, confidential reports claim that fighters from Hizbul Islam militant group, Al-Shabaab’s arch rivals were behind the explosions. Al-Shabaab officials say the explosions were targeted on the group’s top officials, who reside from the area.

“We will officially talk about the explosions once we finish the investigations. At the moment, we can’t blame anyone,” said an Al-Shabaab official who spoke with reporters..

Meanwhile, three Al-Shabaab fighters were also killed inside Bakara Market by unknown assassins. According to eyewitnesses, the bodies of the three with gunshot wounds on the heads were found abandoned in the area.


Shabelle Media: Hizbul Islam denies involving latest blasts in Bakara market
Hizbul Isman organization has Tuesday held press conference in Mogadishu and denied any involvement of the latest explosions happened in parts of Bakara, a stronghold of the Islamist forces in the capital.

Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage better known as (Dere), the spokesman of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen held press conference in Mogadishu yesterday and said that the blasts occurred at the areas under the control of Islamists were behind by people claiming Mujahideen (Islamist fighters) against TFG and AMIOSM in Mogadishu.

Sheik Mohamed Mo’alin Ali, the information secretary of Hizbul Islam said in the press conference which was held in the market that they were not behind or involved the blasts targeted to parts of Bakara market in Mogadishu.

...

“We were not involving any of the latest blasts. We had formed special searching committee for the blasts at 30-ka Street in Mogadishu,” said Sheik Mohamed Mo’allin.

The official had declined to explain reports saying that officials of Hizbul Islam organization had been killed in the latestexplosions occurred near Bakara market recently which Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen said that those who were carrying out the explosions had left their lives in it.

The latest explosions had affected the business centers in areas of Bakara, the biggest market in the Somali capital Mogadishu and the statement of the information secretary of Hizbul Islam organization comes as it is yet unclear the real ones behind the blasts in the capital.


Maybe add a dash of this into the mix
On January 20 ... H.I.’s head of information, Ma’alin Hashi, announced that Western spies had infiltrated H.I. and that troops controlled the by the United States Central Intelligence Agency and Federal Bureau of Investigation were “fighting alongside” H.I. forces [in Beledweyne].


-- -- --

AFP: Rift emerges in Somali Sufi group
Senior leaders from Somalia's main Sufi group Ahlu Sunna wal Jamaa on Tuesday denounced a deal struck last week by some of its members with the government during a meeting in Addis Ababa.

The Ethiopian foreign ministry had issued a statement on Saturday announcing an agreement between the embattled internationally-backed transitional federal government and the Sufi group to combat the country's Islamist insurgency.

But some of the Sufi movement's top figures argued that those who reached the deal in Addis were not representative of the group and not authorised to set policy.

"The so-called agreement reached and discussions that took place in Addis Ababa were misleading and created a rift within Ahlu Sunna followers," Sheikh Omar Sheikh Mohamed Farah, a top Ahlu Sunna leader, told AFP in Mogadishu.

He argued that "the Addis deal does the Shebab and other anti-peace groups a favour by promoting some individuals over others and undermining a planned Ahlu Sunna general assembly to be held soon."

Abdulkadir Mohamed Somow, another leader, said that one faction with Ahlu Sunna had "hijacked the process" by dealing directly with the federal government in the organisation's name.

He suggested the government was deliberately trying to sow division.

"The Somali government should take Ahlu Sunna seriously and make no unilateral deal with some members who are not elected leaders, disregarding the vast majority," he said.

...

Sheikh Mohamed Deeq, a senior figure in Ahlu Sunna, said it was too early to discuss power-sharing and that all should unite in the effort to wrest control of the country back from hardliners.

"The Addis meeting has simply undermined the fight against extremism," he said. "We should not wrangle over power issues until after we liberate Somalis from the Shebab and Hezb al-Islam Al Qaeda agents."

"The Somali government should beware of self-appointed Ahlu Sunna representatives who risk shattering our unity," he said.



Shabelle Media: Islamist official denies power sharing between TFG and Ahlu Sunna clerics
Sheik Omar Sheik Mohamed Farah, the chairman of Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a clerics who is [in] Mogadishu has Wednesday denied they agreed [on a] power sharing deal with the transitional government of Somalia.

Sheik Omar ... said in an interview with Shabelle radio that there was no agreement for power sharing between the government and Ahlu Sunna Waljam’a clerics, but he said that both sides had agreed to collaborate and work together.

The official said that they would displayed all they had discussed with the government for the coming days disproving rumors [claiming] that Ahlu Sunna clerics got posts from the TFG reiterating that their goal was support the Somali government and honor the Islamic region.


Last week I linked to a document claiming to be the agreement reached in Addis Ababa on February 13, which, if authentic, does bind the TFG to the allocation of 39 positions to A.S.W.J.

-- -- --

Shabelle Media: Fire exchange between soldiers injure about 10 civilians in Mogadishu
about 10 ten people were injured in Mogadishu after fire exchange between the transitional government soldiers started at Villa Baidoa, large base for the Somali government military troops in the capital, witnesses told Shabelle radio on Wednesday.

Reports say that the fighting started on midday as some of the government troops tried to rob students of the universities and high schools around KM5 zone which is very close to the military compound of the government which caused other troops to protect them [resulting] in fighting, wounding 7 civilians there in south of Mogadishu.


-- -- --

Latest analysis from Michael Weinstein is up at Garowe Online spells out why that agreement is written in english
Ahlu Sunna Wal-Jama'a's Preliminary Agreement with the TFG
The deal between the T.F.G. and A.S.W.J., which was reached in Addis Ababa and was called "preliminary," was pressured and brokered by external actors - Ethiopia (playing the front role through its foreign minister, Seyoum Mesfin), the African Union (A.U.) and the United Nations Political Office for Somalia (U.N.P.O.S.).

According to Abdirazak Usman Hassan, the T.F.G.’s post and telecommunications minister and a member of the T.F.G.’s negotiating team, who was interviewed by Voice of America: “The United States of America is leading.”


I take it he hasn't seen the copy of the agreement which, again, if authentic, is interestingly dated February 13

Beyond the dissent in the delegations that has already been reported, the specific provisions of the agreement have not been announced publicly or have not yet been defined. Which ministerial posts will A.S.W.J. receive? Will A.S.W.J. be given the post of prime minister?


Weinstein also evidently does not follow Wardheer News, which is where Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh's articles premiere - outside of his Somalia Online blogspot.

Still, I highly recommend Weinstein's latest article in full - it's conclusions are likely spot on.

-- -- --

Much of this has been covered here and at MoA over the last years, but here are some extracts from a recommended interview w/ Mohamed Hassan at Michel Collon's website on
Somalia: How Colonial Powers drove a Country into Chaos
Oil exploitation is not their priority. The United States know that the reserves are there but doesn’t need it immediately. Two elements are much more important in its strategy. First, prevent the competitors from negotiating with a rich and powerful Somali state. If you consider Sudan, the comparison is interesting. The oil that the American companies discovered there thirty years ago, Sudan is selling it today to China. The same thing could happen in Somalia. When he was president of the transition government, Abdullah Yusuf went to China although he was supported by the United States. US mass media had strongly criticized that visit. The fact is that United States have no guarantee on that point: if a Somali government is established tomorrow, whatever is its political color, it could probably adopt a strategy independent of United States and trade with China. Western imperialists do not want a strong and unified Somali state. The second goal pursued by this chaos theory is linked to the geographical location of Somalia, which is strategic for both European and American imperialists.

Why is it strategic?

The issue is the control of the Indian Ocean. Look at the map. As mentioned, western powers have an important share of the responsibility in the Somali piracy development. But instead of telling the truth and paying compensation for what they did, those powers criminalize the phenomena in order to justify their position in the region. Under the pretext of fighting the piracy, NATO is positioning its navy in the Indian Ocean.

What is the real goal?

To control the economic development of the emerging powers, mainly India and China. Half of the world’s container traffic and 70% of the total traffic of petroleum products passes through the Indian Ocean. From that strategic point of view, Somalia is a very important place: the country has the longest coast of Africa (3.300 km) and faces the Arabian Gulf and the Straight of Hormuz, two key points of the region economy. Moreover, if a pacific response is brought to the Somali problem, relations between African in one hand, and India and China on the other hand, could develop through the Indian Ocean. Those American competitors could then have influence in that African area. Mozambique, Kenya, Madagascar, Tanzania, Zanzibar, South Africa etc. All those countries connected to the Indian Ocean could gain easy access to the Asian market and develop fruitful economic relationship. Nelson Mandela, when he was president of South Africa, had mentioned the need of an Indian Ocean revolution, with new economic relationships. The United States and Europe do not want this project. That is why they prefer to keep Somalia unstable.

...

..since the Restore Hope failure, United States has preferred to keep Somalia in chaos. However, in 2006, a spontaneous movement developed under the Islamic courts to fight against the local warlords and bring unity to the country. It was a kind of Intifada. In order to stop this movement from rebuilding Somalia, United States decided suddenly to support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) after having refused to recognize it before. In fact, they realized that their project of a Somalia without effective state was no more possible: a movement – furthermore Islamic!- was about to lead to a national reconciliation. In order to sabotage the Somali unity, United States decided to support the TFG. But this later was lacking any social basis and an army. So the Ethiopian troops, commanded by Washington, attacked Mogadishu to overthrow the Islamic courts.

Did it work?

No, the Ethiopian army was defeated and had to leave Somalia. On their side, the Islamic courts were dispersed in several movements that still control a big part of the country today. As for Abdulla Yusuf’s transitional government, he collapsed and United States replaced it by Sheik Sharif, the former Islamic Court spokesman.

So Sheik Sharif has passed to “the other camp”?

He used to be the Islamic courts spokesman because he is a good orator. But he has no political knowledge. He has no idea what imperialism or nationalism are. That is why western powers took him back. He was the Islamic court’s weak link. Today he chairs a fake government, created in Djibouti. This government has no social base or authority in Somalia. It only exists on the international level because the imperialist forces support it.

In Afghanistan, the United States said they were ready to negotiate with Taliban. Why don’t they look for discussing with the Islamic groups in Somalia?

Because those groups want to take the foreign occupier over and to allow a national reconciliation for the Somali people. As a result, the United States wants to break those groups: a reconciliation, through the Islamic movement or through the TFG, is not in the interests of the imperialist forces. They just want chaos. The problem is that today, this chaos reached Ethiopia too, which is very weak since the 2007 aggression. A nationalist resistance movement came to the light over there to fight against the pro-imperialist government of Addis Ababa. With their chaos theory, United States had in fact created troubles in the whole region. And now, they took it out on Eritrea.

Why?

This little country leads an independent national policy. Eritrea also has a vision for the whole region: the Horn of Africa (Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia) do not need foreign powers’ interference; its wealth should allow it to establish new economical relationship on the basis of mutual respect. According to Eritrea, the region must get it together and its members must be able to discuss about their problems. Of course, this policy frightens United States that fears that other countries follow that example. So they accuse Eritrea of sending weapons to Somalia and instigating troubles in Ethiopia.

Isn’t Eritrea sending weapons in Somalia?

Not even a bullet! This is a pure propaganda as they did against Syria about the Iraqi resistance. Eritrea’s vision catches up with the project of Indian Ocean revolution that we spoke about before. The western powers do not want of that and wish to bring Eritrea back to the circle of the neocolonial states under control, such as Kenya, Ethiopia or Uganda.

Are there no terrorist in Somalia?

Imperialist powers have always labeled as terrorists the people who fight for their right. Irishmen were terrorists until they signed an agreement. Abbas was a terrorist. Now, he is a friend.

But we heard about Al Qaeda in Somalia?

Al Qaeda is everywhere, from Belgium to Australia! That invisible Al Qaeda is a logo designed to justify to the public opinion military operations. If United States say to their citizens and soldiers: “We are going to send our troops into the Indian Ocean in order to probably fight against China”, people would be afraid of course. But if you tell them that it is just about fighting piracy and Al Qaeda, it won’t be a problem. The real goal is however different. It consists in setting forces in the Indian Ocean region that will be the theater of major conflicts in the coming years.


Still not quite the 'thousand ship navy' Adm Mullen envisioned, but...

-- -- --

SMC: Somali Premier updates American Ambassador in Nairobi
In a closed door meeting the Prime Minister of Somalia honorable Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke who is currently in tour of duty in the Kenyan capital Nairobi has late on Wednesday met with the American ambassador assigned for the Somali affairs whose base is in Nairobi.

The Prime Minister of Somalia briefed the American ambassador about the current situation in Somali, and how to bring the country under absolute control of the transitional federal government which has full support from the international community.

In the meeting the Prime Minister was flanked by some very important officials of the Somali transitional federal government who are among his delegation.


Doubt he was there to give Ranneberger any briefing on Somalia - since in Johnnie Carson's testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last May he plainly stated, around 41 minutes into the hearing, in response to Russ Feingold's admonition that the USG was not doing enough to support the TFG
Mr. Chairman, I think those are all good suggestions and I certainly will pursue them. But let me also say that we are in contact with president Sheikh Sharif's government, have reassured him of our support, we have then underlined this to others. Our ambassador in Nairobi, Mike Ranneberger, has been in regular contact with Sheikh Sharif.


[Bonus quote from Carson's testimony in support of the TFG, at the 51:16 mark of the webcast]
uh, Sheikh Sharif was, uh, uh, elected as the president of, uh, Somaliland, uh, through the Djibouti process. Uh, we think that we was a compromise, uh, candidate, uh, who represented, uh, the views of the largest number of clan participants, uh, in that uh, in that uh, election. Uh, we think that he offers the, uh, best chance for, uh, possible reconciliation and peace in Somalia, uh, that we have seen over the, uh.. over the last decade. Uh, he is not, uh, a, uh, warlord. uh, he is not, uh, a milita man. Uh, he is, uh, from a rather humble background. Uh, an educator. Uh, and is a man who has sought, uh, to, uh, unite, uh, the various clans, uh, in Somalia in a more inclusive, uh, government. Uh, we believe that is important to do as much as we possibly can to support this T-F-G government, uh, as one of the, uh, last opportunities, uh, for, uh, bringing about, sta.. stability, uh, in that country.


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Garowe Online: New row emerges between top TFG officials
New row has emerged between Somali president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and parliament speaker Sheikh Aden Mohammed Nur Madobe over speaker’s tenure.

The two met on Thursday at Villa Somalia but failed to come to a census over the issue, a well informed lawmaker told Garowe Online on condition of anonymity.

The source further states that the speaker rebuffed president’s plans to replace him, a plan that is supported by many of Sheikh Sharif’s close associates.

The speaker is said to be adamant to bow to the pressure of stepping down, arguing that his mandate goes hand in hand with the formation of the transition government.

In retaliation, some lawmakers allied to the speaker have also put Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke on the spot over what they termed his failure to implement pledges he made when appointed to the post.

The internal wrangles have also spread to the military and police, whose commandants are said to have divided their loyalties across the two leaders.


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From a Press Release from EU NAVFOR Somalia - OPERATION ATALANTA Expands Its Mission On Piracy
On Wednesday 24 February, ministers of the defence of the European Union agreed that from the end of March they will expand the objectives of Operations Atalanta to include control of Somali ports where pirates are based, as well as ‘neutralising’ mother ships that allow the pirates to operate over 1,000km from the coast.

This expansion could mean an increase in the amount of resources for the operation and also an increase in cooperation and collaboration with NATO and others carrying out operations in this area.

At the press conference at the end of the first day of the Informal Meeting of Ministers, that took place in Mallorca, Spain’s Minister of Defence, Carme Chacón, said that several countries had already said that they are prepared to contribute sea and air resources to reinforce Operation Atalanta beyond 2010.

Rear Admiral Peter Hudson CBE, in command of Operation Atalanta said, “We are ready to assume these new tasks to improve the control and surveillance of the ports and to exercise the right to search at sea”

The ministers also agreed to improve the application of the agreements that exist with Kenya and the Seychelles for taking legal action against pirates that are detained and to increase efforts to achieve similar agreements with other countries in the region, such as Tanzania, Mauritius and South Africa.

The meeting also discussed the approval and the launch of an operation to train Somalian security forces, led by Spain, that would take place in Uganda and could be started as early as May.


In Issue 335 of their SMCM, Ecoterra International correctly note
Do the Spanish neo-Conquistadores and their European comrades in naval arms actually realize that they tackle here the rights of a sovereign state ? Neither the UN Security Council resolutions, which claim but can not proof that they are based on the consent or demand of the Somali government, nor the clandestine agreement the EU had signed with a meanwhile ousted lawmaker and countersigned by the French Ambassador to Kenya do hold any legal basis and therefore are nil and void, while the Somali Parliament has never agreed or consented to any of these agreements.


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The same SMCM also reports
According to a source at the US embassy in Nairobi, the American Ambassador to Kenya, Michael Ranneberger, is expected to leave his post in June.


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Garowe Online: Top Al Shabaab leaders in Kismayo meeting
nformed sources say more than 10 top officials including among others Sheikh Hassan Abdullahi Al-Turki, who recently joined ditched Hizbul Islam and Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansur held town close door meetings, which the local media was barred from covering.

Sources, who requested not to be named, told Garowe Online that the officials were deliberating on how to counter possible government offensives on the group’s positions in the war-torn country.

Meanwhile, Sheikh Abu Mansur says his group is not planning to carry out attacks on its neighbor Kenya but requested Nairobi to stop military maneuvering along the border.

“We are not planning to wage war against Kenya, we are more focused on ensuring security in our areas. But if we come under attack, then we must defend ourselves,” he told crowd in Kismayo.


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Shabelle Media: Al-shabab formally suspends WFP’s operations in Somalia (press release)
Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen issued a press release on Sunday and formally suspended the operations of the World Food Program ( EFP) in southern Somalia.

The press release from the office of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen was titled as follows: “begin from today on 14/03/1431 Hijriya, WFP should stop its activities in Somalia”.

The statement also said that Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen knew more about the problems of the food supply asserting that they would never allow WFP to operate in the country.

The office for the aid agencies of Al-shabab known as (OSAFA) said that they reached the decision as they respected the following articles:

1) Constant complaints from the Somali farmers who suggested that they had problems about selling their food in the markets due to more food that the WFP brings when they get their crops.

2) An expired food supplying WFP for the people that Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen officials saw in the centers of the agency for sparing the food.

3) Diseases spreading that affected to the people which caused the expired food.

4) Knowing that the food supply of WFP was a hidden secret of policy supporting the foreign troops.

Lastly the press release of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen warned to the people involving the World Food Program (WFP) adding that anyone seen involving the operations would be seen as some one working the goals of the agency.


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Sunday Independent: Irish troops will train Somali soldiers
Irish troops are to help train Somali soldiers who are battling an extreme Islamic group allied to al-Qaeda in a civil war which has killed 20,000 people in the last two years.

...

The Government has given the go-ahead for the Defence Forces to send five Irish soldiers to serve with a proposed EU mission whose aim is to train Somali security forces. Exactly what training Irish soldiers will be doing will be clarified later this week.

But it is likely to range from training headquarters' staff to infantry soldiers, with Somali officers, NCOs and privates benefiting from the Army's experience.

The mission, led by Spain, will involve about 100 soldiers and will be based in Uganda.

...

The Irish last served in Somalia as part of UNOSOM II in May 1993. Their job was to ferry supplies for the UN brigade in the Baidoa region.


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Monocolumn: PR for peacekeepers in Somalia
What, you might wonder, would be at the top of the African Union Mission to Somalia’s (AMISOM) peacekeeping wish list? Helmets, check. Armoured personnel carriers. Roger. A peace process? Hmm. It’s complicated.

Meanwhile, how about half a million dollars-worth of services every month from a top-flight British PR agency? Thanks to the taxpayers of the UN member states, it’s theirs.

Since November 2009, heavy hitters Bell Pottinger have led a consortium on a year-long $7.3m (€5.3m) strategic communications contract to, among other things, open a radio station and supervise a major public information “hearts and minds” campaign to make the mission (AMISOM) more welcome in Somalia.

Simon Davies, overseer of the project on behalf of the UN’s support office for Somalia, envisions the radio station, above all else, as the foundation of “a public broadcast system [for Somalia] not dissimilar to [America’s] NPR”.

The UN’s idea of investing in this is that it will hugely improve communications around the country – a benefit to ordinary Somalis but also a major asset to AMISOM in improving its own security and operational effectiveness.

There are legitimate reasons to use a contractor for public diplomacy. In the four months since the contract was signed, a full complement of staff has been recruited from Kenya and inside Somalia and work is already under way in both places, says Bell Pottinger’s chief of staff in Nairobi, Stephen Harley. Shootings and kidnappings have made security rules so tight that UN staff can’t travel freely in most of Somalia, but contractors can make their own arrangements. The Bell Pottinger consortium’s international team has actually spent time in the country. The vast majority of UN international staff working on Somalia spend most, if not all, of their time sitting safely in Nairobi.

...

he UN member states paying for this contract are certainly beginning to wonder about their investment in AMISOM, supporting a government that is considered the last, best hope for Somalia. A review by the UN’s budgetary watchdog in late October 2009 – even before the consortium began its work – expressed concern about the “proliferation of structures for the support of AMISOM”.

Also disquieting is the apparent failure by AMISOM to really take advantage of the PR experts at its disposal; only one press conference has been held since November, the mission does not have a proper website and there has been no systematic output of credible information. So far, there is no sign of warming public opinion in Mogadishu towards the peacekeeping force.

Bell Pottinger’s best-known foray on African soil was in representing oil trader Trafigura, which paid out more than $150m (€110m) in compensation to Côte d’Ivoire last year following the dumping of a shipment of its waste in the West African country.

Defending AMISOM peacekeepers against charges of indiscriminately shelling civilians in Mogadishu may be their next task.