Somalia thread for the week ending August 16

A commentary by Abdikarim Farah, published at Garowe Online, makes a point that I've been raising for some time now:

Why Sheikh Sharif is Clinton’s Best Hope?

Following her meeting with president Sharif in Nairobi, US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton dubbed Somalia’s feeble government as the “best hope” for the country to return to stability and progress.

The statement may seem as a dreadful mistake, a show of hypocrisy and indifference on the tragic situation in Somalia, but from the US Interest’s point of view, Clinton's finding is partly accurate, because one of its main goals has materialized - an Islamist infighting.

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From the point of dividing Islamists, (religion to be abused and people abandon it) deepening the humanitarian situation (people to flee the country), and prolonging the conflict (preventing groups to reconcile), president Sharif’s Government is the “best hope” and means for achieving these long ambitions.

It would have been more complete to include the following:

• Pitting Islamist against Islamist defuses the revolutionary movement that ascended in 2006 and whose power still persists. Think of peeling Sh.Sharif off from the ICU and then the ARS as a counter-revolutionary tactic. Get them to kill off each other, making sure to add enough incentive and weapons to make this possible.
  
  
• Infighting amongst Islamist groups keeps them preoccupied and reduces the very real likelihood of carrying out irredentist threats to Ethiopia, Kenya & Djibouti, all three of which are strong U.S. allies/client states in the region. Think of them as forward operating bases for U.S. military operations and economic "development". Djibouti itself houses an expanding U.S. military base that is critical for U.S. designs for the continent.
  
  
• And the ongoing destabilization of Somalia increases the radicalization of Islamist groups, which, with the right psyops and propaganda campaigns, are manufactured into international terrorists (or "violent extremists"), providing justification for a continued military presence. According to AFRICOM's 2009 posture statement, the combatant command's number one theater strategic objective is to "Defeat the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization and its associated networks," which translates into "deny terrorists ... access to [their] resources".
  

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More reports are starting to show up now on claims -- I cited one earlier -- that weapons delivered recently to the TFG quickly traded hands.

Al Shabaab 'is buying govt weapons'

The business of selling arms at Mogadishu's Cirtoogte ("Sky Shooter") market is brisk.

The weapons that the U.S. government donated to the Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is being sold in the market, according to one trader who asked Garowe Online to be quoted anonymously.

"The TFG weapons on sale are light weapons. We bought the weapons from officers of the TFG at very steep price, and we sell them at higher price because anti-TFG forces such Al Shabaab buy the weapons," says the Cirtoogte market trader.

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Traders at Cirtoogte market told Garowe Online that the new weapons on sale at the market are from the Villa Somalia presidential palace.

The TFG has not so far commented on allegations that government weapons are on sale at Mogadishu's Cirtoogte gun market.

Allegations that government weapons were being bought by the insurgents could not be independently verified.

In an interview with VOA (available as an MP3 download) for the deceptively-titled article Somali Insurgents Reject Government’s Olive Branch, analyst Ali Abdullahi cites "6,000 AK-47s" that Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen "took" from government forces recently. I have yet to find any source for those numbers.

Abdullahi also confirms that the TFG does not have support amongst "the elite"

Abdullahi said a cross-section of Somalis is refusing to recognize the government.

"There is also organized peaceful party which is being arranged to sort of appeal to the international community as an alternative government because most of the Somali elite don't see this government as representative of them," Abdullahi said.

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From a Democracy Now interview w/ the author Jeff Sharlett on his study of the well-connected Christian fundamentalist sect known as "The Family"

AMY GOODMAN: And Siad Barre of Somalia?

JEFF SHARLET: Yeah, dictator of Somalia. It’s, to me, one of the scariest stories that I found in their archives. I was able to recreate this, because they dumped 600 boxes of papers in the Billy Graham archives. Siad Barre was a—not a likely candidate for Christian right recruitment, called himself a Koranic Marxist. But in the early ’80s, the Soviets had abandoned him. There had been a power shift between Somalia and Ethiopia. He was in the market for a new patron. And working through Senator Chuck Grassley, Republican of Iowa, of course still in office—

AMY GOODMAN: Talk more about Chuck Grassley, who certainly is in the news now, who, together with Max Baucus, heads the Senate Finance Committee.

JEFF SHARLET: Yeah.

AMY GOODMAN: Baucus, Democrat; Grassley, Republican. Very powerful figure, especially around healthcare right now.

JEFF SHARLET: Indeed. And Grassley has been involved with the organization for quite some time, since the ’80s, when he traveled to Somalia to join Barre, Siad Barre, in prayer to Jesus. And he brought with him a defense contractor named Bill Brehm.

And Barre was a kind of a cynical character, as you might expect for a dictator. He was very clear. He says, “I’m willing to pray to Jesus, and here’s what I want in return.” He says, “I want my defense budget doubled.” He says, “I want meetings for my officials with the Reagan White House. And I want a sort of a hands-off policy while I crack down on some rebels.” Doug Coe, the leader of the group, wrote back, in essence, “Done, done and done.”

And when we look at history, so it was. And Barre used those weapons, supplied to him in part by the US, to wage a war of almost biblical proportion on his own people, from which Somalia has not recovered to this day. The Family doesn’t consider that a failure; they consider that God’s will for Somalia.

AMY GOODMAN: And more about Grassley? And again, we should say, this is not just a Republican organization. Democrats are also a part. In fact, you talk about Hillary Clinton—

JEFF SHARLET: Yeah, yeah.

AMY GOODMAN: —praying with them.

JEFF SHARLET: I think that’s one of the most important aspects of this. I think, too often, progressives tend to see the Christian right as simply an auxiliary of the Republican Party, whereas the movement, especially through the Family, has recognized that you stay in power not by aligning yourself too closely with one faction, but by having lots of friends. So, Hillary Clinton, Senator Mark Pryor of Arkansas, who was, of course, instrumental in fighting against the Employee Free Choice Act, which would have made unionization much, much easier. He explained to me the Family’s approach to Democratic bipartisanship. He said, “Jesus didn’t come to take sides; He came to take over.” That’s a Democrat speaking. So, Republicans and Democrats working together.

Chuck Grassley, a guy who’s been involved for such a long time. Grassley was involved with the Somalia project throughout the 1980s. They recognize that Somalia, of course, is a nation of great strategic importance, right there on the Horn of Africa. So, even as they are pursuing what they say is a religious agenda, it’s also meshing very neatly with a certain kind of agenda of American expansionist power and oil, frankly.

AMY GOODMAN: And rarely is the devastation of the failed state of Somalia talked about in terms of its history, that the US, for decades, supported this dictator, Siad Barre.

JEFF SHARLET: Yeah, yeah, exactly. The story, for most Americans, begins with George Bush very nobly sending over these troops to fight the warlords. It begins with Black Hawk Down. And we don’t recognize that it was really—I mean, Somalia almost—is almost a purest case possible of US support for an absolutely murderous regime.

In the face of all odds, too. I mean, there’s nothing, it seemed, that Barre could do to dissuade the Family that he was worthy of support, even to the point of insulting Doug Coe, the leader of the group, who used a sad case, the death of his son, wrote to Barre and said, “My son has died today. And as he was dying, he was speaking of you and how important you are.” It was a strange, crass move. Barre didn’t play along. He said, “I never knew your son. But keep the money flowing.” And they did.

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President to visit Washington

NAIROBI (Mareeg)—Somalia’s president Sharif Sheik Ahmed is scheduled to officially visit Washington, United States after he got invitation from the US Congress, sources said on Tuesday.

Sources close to office of the president say Senator Donald Payne sent invitation to President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed.

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High ranking government officials said the president and the foreign minister will visit Washington in this month and will address to American Congress.

This will be the first time that a Somali president gets invitation from the United States since the collapse of Somali central government in 19991.

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This is an excerpt from what is allegedly the transcript of a Memorandum of Conversation between Somalia and USA Oct 1976 which featured Hussien Abdulkadir Kassim and Henry Kissinger engaging elsewhere in a bit of political sparring. I point out this section as it provides an indication of how important a reunified nation has been to Somalis.

KISSINGER: You want a part of Ethiopia.

KASSIM: No, we want freedom for the part of Ethiopia which belongs to our people.

KISSINGER: Is that part of Ethiopia inhabited by Somalis and when did it join Ethiopia?

KASSIM: The Ethiopians took the southern portion of their country which was inhabited exclusively by Somalis in 1884. Until 1960 Ethiopians were present in small administrative and military groups. Now they have reinforced their control and the situation is different.

KISSINGER: So you will be hostile until you obtain the rest of your territory.

KASSIM: The other way around. We do not renounce the rights of our people and our nation. We suffer from a colonial situation.

KISSINGER: There are Somalis in northern Kenya. Do you claim Kenyan territory as well?

KASSIM: That is an historical fact. The British Government organized a Province in 1963 for what they called the NorthernFrontierProvince. It had always been administered separately from the rest of Kenya. Eighty-six percent But the British of the population voted to join Somalia decided otherwise, and might made right. We do not blame Kenya because the solution was imposed by a colonial power. We blame Ethiopia more since Ethiopia's act was a deliberate one of colonialism. We have Ethiopian documents proving the point. When the European nations began scrambling for territory in Africa, Menelik II wrote to the colonial powers and said "We also want to get our part." Ethiopia almost overran us in its agression in 1963 and 1964. Had outside powers not intervened, disaster would have befallen both parties.

KISSINGER: There is little we can do about history but as you know, Ethiopia's relations with us are not excessively intimate.

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Shabelle Media: Harakat Al-Shabab Mujahideen says they captured weapon sent to two rival clan militias in central Somalia

Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen officials have said on Thursday that they captured more weapons sent to two rival Somali clan militias who recently fought in central Somalia.

Sheik Ali Mohamud Raghe, the spokesman of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen held a press conference for the journalists on Thursday afternoon and said they captured more weapons including automatic and many heavy guns which the government and AMISOM troops sent to the warring clan militias who are fighting in parts of central Somalia.

Sheik Ali Mohamud said that the weapon and ammunition could only increase the level of the fighting between the Somali people who are fighting in central Somalia.

Asked about whether they will continue the fighting in the following holy Ramadan month, the spokesman of Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen replied that they will redouble their fighting against the transitional government and AMISOM troops.

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Two items from EcoTerra International's August 13 Somali Marine & Coastal Monitor alert:

NATURAL RESOURCES & ARMED FISH POACHERS: Foreign navies entering the 200nm EEZ of Somalia and foreign helicopters and troops must respect the fact that especially all wildlife is protected by Somali national as well as by international laws and that the protection of the marine resources of Somalia from illegally fishing foreign vessels should be an integral part of the anti-piracy operations. Likewise the navies must adhere to international standards and not pollute the coastal waters with oil, ballast water or waste from their own ships but help Somalia to fight against any dumping of any waste (incl. diluted, toxic or nuclear waste). So far and though the AU as well as the UN has called since long on other nations to respect the 200 nm EEZ, only now the two countries (Spain and France) to which the most notorious vessels and fleets are linked have come up with a declaration that they will respect the 200 nm EEZ of Somalia but so far not any of the navies operating in the area pledged to stand against illegal fishing. So far not a single illegal fishing vessel has been detained by the naval forces, though they had been even informed about several actual cases, where an intervention would have been possible. Illegally operating Tuna fishing vessels (many from South Korea, some from Greece and China) carry now armed personnel and force their way into the Somali fishing grounds - uncontrolled or even protected by the naval forces mandated to guard the Somali waters against any criminal activity, which included arms carried by foreign fishing vessels in Somali waters.

LLWs / NLWs: According to recently leaked information the anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden are also used as a cover-up for the live testing of recently developed arsenals of so called non-lethal as well as sub-lethal weapons systems. (Pls request details) Neither the Navies nor the UN has come up with any code of conduct in this respect, while the Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Program (JNLWP) is sponsoring several service-led acquisition programs, including the VLAD, Joint Integration Program, and Improved Flash Bang Grenade. Already in use in Somalia are so called Non-lethal optical distractors, which are visible laser devices that have reversible optical effects. These types of non-blinding laser devices use highly directional optical energy. Somalia is also a testing ground for the further developments of the Active Denial System (ADS) Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD). If new developments using millimeter wave sources that will help minimize the size, weight, and system cost of an effective Active Denial System which provides "ADS-ACTD-like" repel effects, are used has not yet been revealed. Obviously not only the US is developing and using these kind of weapons as the case of MV MARATHON showed, where a Spanish naval vessel was using optical lasers - the stand-off was then broken by the killing of one of the hostage seafarers. Local observers also claim that HEMI devices, producing Human Electro-Muscular Incapacitation (HEMI) Bioeffects, have been used in the Gulf of Aden against Somalis. Exposure to HEMI devices, which can be understood as a stun-gun shot at an individual over a larger distance, causes muscle contractions that temporarily disable an individual. Research efforts are underway to develop a longer-duration of this effect than is currently available. The live tests are apparently done without that science understands yet the effects of HEMI electrical waveforms on a human body.

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Daniel Volman has a commentary up at allAfrica.com:
U.S. Military Holds War Games on Nigeria, Somalia

In May 2008, the United States Army War College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, hosted "Unified Quest 2008," the army's annual war games to test the American military's ability to deal with the kind of crises that it might face in the near future. "Unified Quest 2008" was especially noteworthy because it was the first time the war games included African scenarios as part of the Pentagon's plan to create a new military command for the continent: the Africa Command or Africom. No representatives of Africom were at the war games, but Africom officers were in close communication throughout the event.

The five-day war games were designed to look at what crises might erupt in different parts of the world in five to 25 years and how the United States might handle them.

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One of the four scenarios that were war-gamed was a test of how Africom could respond to a crisis in Somalia — set in 2025 — caused by escalating insurgency and piracy. Unfortunately, no information on the details of the scenario is available.

Far more information is available on the other scenario — set in 2013 — which was a test of how Africom could respond to a crisis in Nigeria in which the Nigerian government is near collapse, and rival factions and rebels are fighting for control of the oil fields of the Niger Delta and vying for power in the country which is the sixth largest supplier of America's oil imports.

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Among scenarios examined during the game were the possibility of direct American military intervention involving some 20,000 U.S. troops in order to "secure the oil," and the question of how to handle possible splits between factions within the Nigerian government. The game ended without military intervention because one of the rival factions executed a successful coup and formed a new government that sought stability.

The recommendations which the participants drew up for the Army's Chief of Staff, General George Casey, do not appear to be publicly available, so we don't know exactly what the participants finally concluded. But we do know that since the war games took place in the midst of the presidential election campaign, General Casey decided to brief both John McCain and Barack Obama on its results.

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We can only wonder what Barack Obama thought of the war game and what lessons he learned from General Casey's briefing. One might hope that he came away with a new appreciation for the danger, if not the outright absurdity, of pursuing the strategy of unilateral American military intervention in Africa pioneered by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who was retained as Defense Secretary by President Obama when he took office, and General Casey, who has also kept his job under the new administration.

But President Obama has decided instead to expand the operations of Africom throughout the continent. He has proposed a budget for financial year 2010 that will provide increased security assistance to repressive and undemocratic governments in resource-rich countries like Nigeria, Niger, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and to countries that are key military allies of the United States like Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Rwanda and Uganda.

And he has actually chosen to escalate U.S. military intervention in Africa, most conspicuously by providing arms and training to the beleaguered Transitional Federal Government of Somalia, as part of his effort to make Africa a central battlefield in the "global war on terrorism." So it is clearly wishful thinking to believe that his exposure to the real risks of such a strategy revealed by these hypothetical scenarios gave him a better appreciation of the risks that the strategy entails.

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This would be interesting if it were to ever actually happen, of which I am quite skeptical - according to the CIA World Factbook, the largest ethnic group in Djibouti is Somali (60%). And check out how each subsequent paragraph increasingly contradicts the headline and first sentence. Soon?

New Vision: Djibouti to deploy troops in Somalia

DJIBOUTI soldiers will soon join their Ugandan and Burundian counterparts on the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia.

Djibouti’s foreign affairs minister Mahomoud Ali Youssouf was in Kampala this week to discuss the arrangements with his Ugandan counterpart, Sam Kutesa.

The ministry’s spokesperson, Sam Guma, on Thursday said Djibouti agreed to send troops but did not commit herself to the numbers.

“The ministers explored the possibility of Djibouti contributing towards supporting the Ugandan and Burundian troops that are already keeping peace in Somalia,” he said.