In the wake of the World Cup finals bombing in Uganda, there has been even less discussion of the civilians being killed in Mogadishu by the peacekeeping mission which the UN is supporting. But a memo leaked from within that AMISOM mission notes continued firing into civilian neighborhoods.
Inner City Press asked UN Humanitarian coordinator Mark Bowden whether there is a special responsibility on the UN to ensure that the troops to which it provides logistical support through its UNSOA office are not killing civilians. “Yes there is,” Bowden said, adding that he's “had discussions” with Ambassador Diarra of the African Union about “reducing civilian casualties.”
But shouldn't the UN's support to troops be conditioned on avoiding killing civilians? “I think it is,” Bowden said. “It's not my side of the shop” but “my colleagues are in active discussion in Addis with the AU.” Video here, from Minute 18:13.
Inner City Press asked, which colleagues? UNSOA or the Department of Field Support? “DFS and UNSOA,” Bowden said. Previous questioning by Inner City Press, of DFS chief Susana Malcorra and the Office of the Spokesperson for Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, has not yielded any specifics to back up the claim that the UN has made its support to troops in Mogadishu conditioned on not killing civilians.
In fact, despite the UN's and others' support of the Transitional Federal Government, the UN's own Humanitarian report for June describes TFG forces looting UN food supplies in a convoy. Inner City Press asked Bowden about this, and about the TFG's reported shelling of a press conference on June 29, which killed journalists.
Bowden acknowledged “indisciplined TFG forces... vying with each other.” On the killing of journalists by the TFG, he referred to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, without providing any more specifics.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, by contrast, when violations by the Congolese Army forces the UN was supporting were exposed, the UN claimed to put in place a detailed policy of conditionality, and to suspend support to a particular unit engaged in the killing of civilians.
In Somalia, the troops the UN is providing logical support to are killing civilians. Where is the policy of conditionality? Are human rights protections another casualty of the World Cup final bombings in Uganda? Watch this site.
Footnote: Of the last two times Inner City Press spoke with new UN Somalia envoy Augustine Mahiga, in the first he agreed that the AMISON peacekeepers are mis-using long range artillery and harming civilians. In the second conversation, it was all about Al Shabab. In between? The bombing in Kampala, claimed by Al Shabab...
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Latest analysis from Michael Weinstein, Washington’s Response to the Kampala Bombings - Continued Procrastination
Washington’s first response to the bombings came from Under-Secretary of State for Africa Johnnie Carson, who is the point man for Somalia policy. Carson denounced H.S.M., which he likened to a “localized cancer” that had “metastasized into a regional crisis … that has bled across borders and is now infecting the international community.” Let us note that Carson is demonizing H.S.M. here and depersonalizing them by calling them a disease. This is not the language of the diplomat but of the rabble rouser. It was simply politically necessary for Washington to express outrage.
Nonetheless, at the same time that Carson was throwing raw meat to the crowd, State Department spokesman Philip Crowley told reporters that he could not talk about any plans that Washington might have for responding to the bombings, adding that H.S.M. is “an outgrowth of other issues” – refugees, the illegal arms trade and piracy.
The most comprehensive statements on Washington’s Somalia policy came on July 14 in a briefing for reporters on “Al Shabaab Terrorist Group” conducted by “senior officials” and posted in full by Washington. A close reading of the briefing follows.
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Follow the link for the full text. Weinstein concludes that the US response so far indicates no desire to get further involved in Somalia and that
the attacks were not, at least for Washington, a “game shifter,” as Chatham House analyst Sally Healy thought they would be when she spoke to the U.S. military newspaper Stars and Stripes. Richard Downie of the Center for Strategic and International Studies came closer to the truth when he told the same publication: “I don’t really see what the United States can do. There aren’t any attractive options.”
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AP decides not to ignore the story any longer
AU troops harming Somali civilians
African Union peacekeepers are indiscriminately shelling residential areas of Somalia's capital, according to internal AU reports reviewed by The Associated Press.
The evaluation was made months before Somali militants claimed they carried out twin bombings that killed 76 people in Uganda last week — attacks the insurgents said were to avenge civilian deaths caused by AU soldiers.
The series of reports, stamped for "Internal Use Only" and issued from April to June, said that if indiscriminate shelling continues, the AU mission will lose the support of the Somali people.
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The AU force, known as AMISOM, has long been criticized by human rights groups for civilian deaths in Somalia, and the internal reports seen by AP show the mission itself is aware of the problem.
In a report issued in May, the AU expressed concern that the force "may not be adequately giving the issue of indiscriminate shelling of civilians the urgent attention it deserves."
A similar report in June said AMISOM "continues to underestimate the importance of being seen to address this critical issue."
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Somalia's former state minister for defense, Yusuf Mohamed Siyad, told the AP he once witnessed more than 60 artillery shells, missiles and mortars fired into residential areas and the Bakara market in response to three mortars fired by militants.
Siyad resigned from his position last month because he said the government had failed to deliver either security or services to the public.
Earlier this month, after an artillery shell killed families who sought shelter in a building in another popular market, the head of Mogadishu's ambulance service said he believed the round was too strong to have been fired by Islamist militants.
"It was so strong that it obliterated the building," Ali Muse said. "The scene was scary. Human flesh was scattered everywhere."
AFP:
Uganda has said it was seeking a "license to kill" for AMISOM forces to make an impact but the force's defensive mortar shelling has caused many civilian casualties and analysts argue the Shebab are trying to draw it into a trap.
"We are quite worried about the consequences of such an operation, because if they are engaged in quite an indiscriminate manner, they run the risk of playing in the hands of the Shebab," said the International Crisis Group's Ernst Jan Hogendoorn.
IRIN: Deadly skies above Mogadishu
Shelling accounted for many of the injuries to the 160 people admitted in the first three weeks of July to Madina hospital, the largest hospital in Mogadishu, according to its director-general, Mohamed Yusuf.
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"Most of the patients admitted are those on whom surgery was performed, such as those with stomach injuries," Yusuf said.
"Patients with chest, head and bone fractures are also admitted. About 60 percent of the injuries are due to explosives, shelling using heavy mortars and exploded bombs."
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Yusuf said 40 percent of those in the hospital were women and children, most of whom had been caught up in mortar attacks in places such as markets.
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In the Mogadishu district of Dayniile, home to many internally displaced persons (IDPs), one resident told IRIN: "There has been heavy shelling of civilian areas, mostly at night, coming from government and AMISOM controlled areas. We don't know why they are shelling civilian areas."
He named Hodan, Howlwadag and Wardhigley as other areas affected by shelling.
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Interesting commentary from Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh up at WDN
INTERPOL’S fake images: - Ex. TFG Prime Minster is not the Kampala Suicide Bomber
The reconstructed pictures of the two suspects raises more questions than answers and thus injects heavy dose of mistrust in the already what is fast becoming suspicious investigation.
Buh points out that one of the reconstructed faces is superimposed onto a photo of Ghedi from his days as the TFG PM and claims that the other is that of a DJ in Sweden.
He continues
The two images of the reconstructed faces of the suspects have no or little semblance to Somali but the intention of the creators of this poor forgery is clear beyond any doubt – the Somali flag background in the first image, a flag that Al-Shabab never hoists for its symbolism, and the Somali related poster on the second says all.
Could just be that Ghedi's face probably turned up in a facial recognition algorithm, somebody liked the match and then lazily pasted the composite face onto it and released that photo, among others, w/ the background largely untouched. But who knows...
Despite the claim of Al Shabab, a coalition of Ethiopian and Ugandan intelligence work was the strongest suspicion among many that surfaced in Uganda, never the less these pictures are casting a long shadow on the trust people had on the investigation work of 60 FBI officers, Scotland Yard team, MI5 and etc.
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The fact that the government proclaimed that they confiscated an unexploded loaded suicide bombers vest in the Ange Noir discotheque near Kampala’s Industrial area raised many eye brows as the discotheque is frequented by the Minsters, Army officers and their children. There is question mark on the choice of the suspected bombers of the Kyadondo Rugby Club and the Ethiopian Village Restaurant and ignored more visible, densely populated and economically more significant targets, for example, the Garden City shopping complex, the Crested Towers buildings, or the Kampala Serena Hotel.
No one knows why they avoided the most expensive and high-profile new buildings, companies, and shopping complexes in Uganda --- like Garden City, the Nakumatt complex, Umeme electricity company, Speke Resort Munyonyo, Imperial Royale Hotel, Imperial Botanical Beach Hotel, Imperial Resort Beach Hotel, Roofings Ltd. along the Entebbe-Kampala highway, the J&M Airport Hotel along the same Entebbe-Kampala highway, the Sameer Dairy corporation, and others --- belong to the Museveni family.
The Ugandans are on the believe that this was an inside project to justify to get more funds from the Americans in the name of “war on terror” as well as to get support for the IGAD planned deployment of extra 20,000 troops in Mogadishu on the other hand.
But, as two H.S.M. officials made clear, the motive for the attacks - retaliation for AMISOM's continued slaughter of Somali civilians - was there & legitimate. That would still, however, allow for the possibility that those carrying out the attacks could have been guided and/or assisted by the intel community, who let it happen on purpose perhaps.
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Amnesty International: Journalists under attack in Somalia as government steps up media crackdown
Amnesty International has called on Somali authorities and armed opposition groups in the country to respect freedom of expression amid a growing government crackdown on independent journalism.
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Amnesty International's new briefing paper, Hard News: Journalists' lives in danger in Somalia (PDF), launched on Somali Human Rights Day (22 July), documents the targeting of journalists in the country.
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While the armed groups are the most deadly threat to journalists in the country, media workers have come under increased pressure from the TFG in a recent clampdown on independent journalism.
On 26 June, New York Times correspondent Mohammed Ibrahim fled Somalia after threats from government security forces, following the publication of an article alleging that government forces included child soldiers.
On 29 June, several journalists were wounded when missiles were fired on a press conference being held by Al-Shabab in Mogadishu. Local journalists at the scene believe they were indirectly targeted by the TFG, who did not want the press conference to go ahead.
On 1 July, police detained journalist Mustafa Haji Abdinur and freelance cameraman Yusuf Jama Abdullahi for taking pictures of their colleague, photojournalist Farah Abdi Warsame, who had been hit in the crossfire during fighting in Mogadishu.
The journalists were interrogated and forced to delete their photographs. Warsame was only able to get medical treatment after being interrogated.
"Rather than protecting journalists from feared armed groups such as al-Shabab, the Somali authorities are increasing the problems for media workers by adding to the harassment they face," said Michelle Kagari.
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Shabelle Media: Al-shabab, government accuse AMISOM for shelling civilians
The officials of the transitional government of Somalia and Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen have unanimously accused the African Union troops AMISOM for shelling the civilians, officials said on Friday.
More civilians died while many others wounded as heavy shelling targeted to the civilian populated areas in Mogadishu over the past weeks and both the transitional government officials and Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen had separately talked more on the shelling and denounced AMISOM for the responsibility tat more people died in the shelling.
Abdikarin Ahmed Mo’allin, the justice minister of the transitional government of Somalia had suggested in a meeting on the security of the country held in the capital that attended more ministers and MPs that AMISOM uses its heavy weapon to the Somali people expressing surprise about why the people in the capital did not talk on that.
“Earlier, we used to fight small guns and rocked propelled gun, so why did not the people talked the PM and the tanks,” said the minister.
The Minister of justice of the TFG said that they would go to AMISOM and talk with the reasons they target shell fires to the Somali civilians pointing out that the heavy weapons did not liberate a country.
On the other hand the governor of Banadir region for Harakat Al-shabab Mujahideen had said that the AMISOM troops started shelling to the civilian populated areas in the capital since Kampala’s deadly blasts as revenge.
NYT: Presidential Guards in Somalia Defect to Insurgents
Somali officials acknowledged on Thursday that members of Somalia’s presidential guard had defected to the Shabab...
The defection of some of the president’s best-trained men is the latest setback for Somalia’s beleaguered transitional government, which has lost important pieces of territory in the past few days. Insurgents are now 300 yards — a rifle shot away — from the presidential palace.
The Shabab gleefully introduced three former members of the presidential guard at a news conference in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, on Wednesday. The soldiers said they quit working for the government because it was being protected by African Union peacekeepers, who they said were killing Somali civilians with indiscriminate shelling.
More than 6,000 African Union peacekeepers are in Mogadishu to help protect the government and stabilize Somalia, but they are coming under intensifying criticism for firing mortars and heavy guns into crowded neighborhoods.
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Somali government officials had initially denied that any of the presidential guard had defected. But on Thursday, Abdullahi Ali Anod, head of the presidential guard, told Somali radio stations: “The soldiers who joined the Shabab asked us permission to leave and visit their families, which they had not visited for so long, but later we were informed they defected.”
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Reuters: Four African nations eyeing Somalia mission: Uganda
Four African nations have sent army officers to Somalia before deciding whether to commit troops to the Horn of Africa nation, where rebels are battling the fragile government, a senior Ugandan military official said.
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"We think very soon we'll see infantry troops because now those officers have been there, they have worked with us for more than six months on the ground and I think they have seen that the mission can be done," General Edward Katumba Wamala told the Ugandan parliament's defence committee late Thursday.
Katumba, who is Uganda's chief of land forces, said Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and Zambia had all deployed officers on a fact-finding mission.
A six-month 'on the ground' fact-finding mission inside Somalia?
Daily Monitor says five countries but only names the four mentioned by Wamala
Ugandan and Burundian troops in Somalia are over stretched and have limited resources, Defence Minister Crispus Kiyonga reported to MPs on Thursday, putting a fresh demand for reinforcement from the African Union.
Appearing before Parliament’s Defence Committee discussing the Ministry of Defence’s budget, Dr Kiyonga said as a matter of urgency, partner states in the AU should send troops to Somalia to reinforce the AU peacekeeping mission.
“We can do more if other members of the AU come on board to play their role,” he said. His comments came before Lt Gen. Katumba Wamala commander of the Land Forces reported that at least five other African countries had sent army officers to Somalia before deciding whether to commit troops to the Horn of Africa nation.
“Officers from Nigeria, Zambia, Senegal and Ghana are working at the force headquarters which is an indication that other countries are interested,” said Gen. Wamala. “We think very soon we’ll see infantry troops because now those officers have been there, they have worked with us for more than six months and I think they have seen that the mission can be done.”
AU peacekeepers have been at the receiving end of fresh attacks from insurgents of the Islamist militia group, al Shabaab with reports indicating that two UPDF soldiers had been killed on Wednesday.
“We would love to see more forces in Somalia. That is our immediate call. Let other countries respond and send troops because what we need as of now is more troops and more participation by other African Union countries,” Gen. Wamala added.
Maybe he's referring to the police trainers based in Kenya? But has it really been six months?
AP: More troops ready to be sent to Somalia
Two more countries will send troops to join a peacekeeping force protecting the embattled Somali government against al-Qaida-linked Islamist insurgents, the head of the African Union said Friday, July 23.
Djibouti and Guinea will both send troops to the Somali capital of Mogadishu, said AU commission president Jean Ping.
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Ping did not rule out the possibility of a change in mandate that could see the peacekeepers' current mission — to protect key government buildings — changed to authorize offensive action.
"Guinea is preparing a battalion to be sent to Somalia immediately. Djibouti prepared a battalion six months ago. Guinea's commanders are in Mogadishu preparing for the arrival of their troops," Ping said.
Ping did not specify the number of troops Guinea plans to send. A battalion can consist of between several hundred troops to more than 1,000.
Human rights groups have accused Guinea's armed forces of severe abuses, including the massacre of over 150 opposition supporters in 2009 and several gang rapes.
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Johnnie Carson laying it on thick in an interview at allAfrica.com
Conflict Will Spread Unless International Community Acts - U.S. Policymaker
We believe that Uganda was probably targeted in large measure for its participation in Amisom and its support for the Djibouti [peace] process and the TFG, the current Somali government.
Well that's interesting, given that H.S.M. publicly declared more than once that the attacks were in retaliation for AMISOM's slaughter of Somali civilians while it props up an unpopular govt created and installed by foreign actors. Could Johnnie actually be oblivious to the shelling of civilians in Mogadishu? Hardly - he mentions the indiscriminate shelling by U.S.-supported foreign fighters in Mogadishu later in the interview. More likely is that he just not care enough b/c it would take him too far off message and open him and U.S. engagement in Somalia up to further unwanted scrutiny, even in such an outlet as AllAfrica.
Do you believe that backing the TFG militarily and diplomatically can be effective?
I think it is the correct policy. The policy that we pursue towards Somalia is supported by IGAD [the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, an organization of six eastern African nations]. It is a policy that was designed and orchestrated by the people of Somalia and supported by the region to bring together a transitional government that would bring in as many clans and sub-clan groups as possible.
"It is a policy that was designed and orchestrated by the people of Somalia..."? Is this some sort of joke? And ask the Darod or any of the minority clans about that last sentence. The man is sick, I tell you.
There are those who argue for "constructive disengagement", like Bronwyn Bruton in a Council on Foreign Relations report, saying "doing less is better than doing harm". Is it possible that the current U.S. approach is doing more harm than good?
Also there are reports of child soldiers being used by the Transitional Federal Government, of civilians being targeted. What does that say about the policy?
I think that's a false dichotomy. I think you can do more without doing harm, and I think that it is up to diplomats and to development workers and to security officials to calibrate U.S. policies in a fashion designed to advance stability, security, and service delivery as well as more inclusiveness and better governance – without doing harm.
I've seen the news reports about allegations of the TFG using child soldiers, and I believe those stories are an exaggeration. Not that there aren't child soldiers around, but that they represent a small fraction of what is happening.
Pun intended there? Somebody cue up Ed McMahon's chortle.
Clearly, there are things in Somalia that we can't control, but we certainly try to make sure that anything we're associated with is done legally.
We've also seen in the Washington Post allegations of indiscriminate fire by Amisom troops on civilians. We don't deny that some of this has probably happened, but I do not believe that there is a policy of deliberate shelling by Amisom forces. That some of it may occur, yes, and it's wrong whether it's a lot or a little. But I don't think it represents a policy. Somalia is probably one of the three or four most dangerous and unpredictable war zones in the world, and these kinds of things happen in those environments.
Amazing that to some, it still matters what this guy "believes". As pointed out here and elsewhere since he took office, Carson's public relations efforts wrt Somalia have largely hinged on deception. DOS contracted private military contractors, or mercenaries, to train and work with AMISOM and TFG troops, providing some degree of plausible denial, so long as they can retain control of the message.
We have not done enough on Somalia, which, for far too long, has been the subject of benign neglect by the United States, and by the international community.
If only Somali's had been fortunate enough that that was indeed true.
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Stars and Stripes: U.S. to step up efforts to train, equip African peacekeepers in Somalia
U.S. forces will step up efforts to train and equip African Union peacekeepers engaged in a fight against Islamic militants in Somalia, the commander of AFRICOM said.
Gen. William “Kip” Ward, in a speech Tuesday at a Washington-based think tank, said U.S. policy would remain on course as his command looks for ways to lend more support to African Union soldiers deployed in Somalia to prevent the country’s weak transitional government from being toppled.
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In the six years since the U.S. adopted its containment strategy, there have been few signs of progress, prompting critics to ask if it’s time to find a new plan. Will more weapons, training and logistical support for peacekeepers make a difference? Are there alternatives that U.S. policy makers should be considering? Or is the current strategy the best choice among a series of unattractive options?
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With no international interest in making a serious military investment, some Somalia scholars say the time has come for a radically different approach: abandon all efforts and let the Somalis figure it out on their own.
“The more we intervene the more damage we do,” Bruton, author of the recent Council on Foreign Relations special report: “Somalia: A New Approach,” told AFRICOM staff members Monday.
During her visit to AFRICOM headquarters, as part of the command’s guest speaker program, Bruton argued for a U.S. policy that disengages from dealing with the TFG. Bruton says the approach is too limited and indecisive to reverse the military stalemate. Increased civilian casualties, largely attributed to foreign troops, also have turned the population against the African Union mission, she said.
“The African Union is even more toxic (in Somalia) than the United States,” she said. “It will be impossible for the TFG to win hearts and minds,” she said.
In addition, the U.S.’s continued backing of the mission could actually strengthen al-Shabab, which uses the foreign presence as a rallying point, Bruton said.
That critique goes to the heart of the challenge facing U.S. policy makers, who view the AU force in Somalia —AMISOM — as the best option in Somalia. Even before her visit to the Stuttgart headquarters, Bruton’s call for a “constructive disengagement” from Somalia had gotten the attention of AFRICOM leadership. Her paper has been widely distributed and is provoking discussion about U.S. policy in Somalia.
“What you’ve said… is that an increase in the size of AMISOM, in your view, is going to be counterproductive to what we are trying to achieve?” AFRICOM’s civilian deputy commander Anthony Holmes asked Bruton on Monday. “There is such a stark contradiction.”
While al-Shabab would likely seize control of Mogadishu if AMISOM pulled out, Bruton argues that the terror group would split apart under the burden of governing a place as complex and splintered as Somalia.
“Leave Somalis to solve the problem because this has been caused by external intervention,” she said. “I don’t think their solutions include a government right now.”
While Bruton's continued insistence that H.S.M. is some sort of monolithic entity that will fracture when given more responsibility is disturbing & ignores the areas already governed by its various factions, it is a good sign that she continues to get her larger message into the imperialist's debates on what they think they need to do about Somalia.
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Daily Monitor: President says UPDF will attack al Shabaab
President Yoweri Museveni on Saturday said Uganda has a right to attack the al Shabaab terrorists in self-defence. The President said by attacking and bombing civilians in Kampala, al Shabaab had committed an act of aggression against Uganda.
In a statement released to the media on Saturday , Mr Museveni said: “ The cowardly act of attacking our merry-making non-combatants on July 11, 2010, will make their situation worse.”
“In the past, we were only guarding the three installations as per the AU Force mandate. These reactionary groups have now committed aggression against our country. We have a right of self-defence. We shall now go for them.”
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Mr Museveni, who describes the al Shabaab as agents of mindless, cowardly Middle-eastern terrorism, said they will be defeated because they push for foreign interests.
“The UPDF will continue to punish these agents of foreign interests if they dare again to attack the positions of the AU Forces, flying the flag of Africa,” he said
Oh the irony...
On Friday, the Africa Union Commission chairman, Mr. Jean Ping said they would present a proposal to the heads of state to give the peacekeepers a new mandate to attack the al Shabaab fighters in Somalia.
From an interview w/ Somalia's Defense Minister, Abdi Osman, in the the Daily Monitor
..let me first say we want to thank our brother President Museveni and our Ugandan brothers and sisters for the commitment and love they have shown the people of Somalia.
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What are some of the resolutions that you have prepared to present to the African Union heads of state summit which starts on Sunday?
The main resolution is to change the mandate of Amisom mission from peacekeeping to peace enforcement. We also request for additional forces in the first two weeks. We request for 2,000 troops in the next two weeks.
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Why has the Somali conflict been complex and hard to end?
It`s because we have foreign troops.
Absolutely, but not in the framing that the minister employs. Adding another 2k will only serve to escalate the conflict. They are fooling only themselves when they abuse language to call the largest grouping of foreign troops in Somalia 'peacekeepers' who need to be re-mandated to take a full-on offensive campaign of 'peace enforcement.'
And is that a Freudian slip in the next sentence?
We have terrorist groups coming from different parts of the country. All criminals, fugitives and wanted people runaway to Somalia. It has become a safe haven for the world`s most wanted people. Currently, there are 3,000 foreign fighters in Somalia. They are the ones supplying arms to al Shabaab. They are the ones blowing up people. They are the ones who killed our brothers and sisters in Kampala.
Obviously 'foreign fighters' is a term only relegated to the enemy. How long can they suspend logic and maintain that charade if AMISOM's mandate is revised to allow more CT operations?
Daily Nation: Wetang'ula urges strong Somalia action
Speaking during the opening of the Executive Council of the African Union Friday in Kampala, Mr Wetang'ula called for strengthening the AU military operation in Somalia, AMISOM, from “peacekeeping to peace-making.”
Specifically, he called for the AU to strengthen the East African Standby Brigade, or EASBRIC, so that it might better deal with the Somalia security threat.
He further expressed condolences to the people and government of Uganda, where two separate bombs [sic] killed nearly 100 people as they watched the World Cup finals.
The attack [sic], Mr Wetangula said, was worrisome because it represented a departure from attacks directed toward western interests and represented a “new and worrying” threat of violence by Africans on Africans.
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Okay, Bruton has an opinon piece in Sunday's NYT -- In Somalia, Talk to the Enemy -- and specifically says, contrary to how I phrased her take earlier,
the United States should negotiate with the moderate elements within Al Shabab. It is not a monolithic movement, after all.
Yet she suggests that
The only way Al Shabab can flourish, or even survive in the long term, is to hold itself up as an alternative to the transitional government and the peacekeepers. If the Somali public did not have to face this grim choice, the thousands of clan and business militiamen would eventually put up a fight against Al Shabab’s repressive religious edicts and taxes. (Somalia’s sheer ungovernability is both its curse and its blessing.) And without a battle against peacekeepers to unite it, Al Shabab would likely splinter into nationalist and transnational factions.
The battle against the 'peacekeepers' is only taking in place in Mogadishu. What of the rest of Southern and Central Somalia that H.S.M. factions already control and administer? Splinter from what, if it's acknowledged that it's not a monolith?
And this particular paragraph contains a few problematic assertions, as well
A strategy of “constructive disengagement” — in which the international community would extricate itself from Somali politics, but continue to provide development and humanitarian aid and conduct the occasional special forces raid against the terrorists — would probably be enough to pull the rug out from under Al Shabab. This group, led mostly by foreign extremists fresh from the battlefields of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, is internally divided, and is hated in Somalia.
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