Somalia thread for the week ending July 3

WaPo on Wednesday relays (un)official confirmation that last week's air strike(s?) near Kismaayo were indeed a U.S. operation:

A U.S. drone aircraft fired on two leaders of a militant Somali organization tied to al-Qaeda, apparently wounding them, a senior U.S. military official familiar with the operation said Wednesday.

The strike last week against senior members of al-Shabab comes amid growing concern within the U.S. government that some leaders of the Islamist group are collaborating more closely with al-Qaeda to strike targets beyond Somalia, the military official said.

The airstrike makes Somalia at least the sixth country where the United States is using drone aircraft to conduct lethal attacks, joining Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Iraq and Yemen.

...

In recent months, U.S. officials have picked up intelligence that senior members of the group have expanded their ambitions beyond attacks in Somalia.

“They have become somewhat emboldened of late, and, as a result, we have become more focused on inhibiting their activities,” the official said.“They were planning operations outside of Somalia.”

Both of the al-Shabab leaders targeted in the attack had “direct ties” to American-born cleric Anwar al-Aulaqi, the military official said.

...

The White House declined Wednesday night to respond to questions about the attack.

But Obama administration officials have made repeated references to al-Shabab in recent weeks, indicating that the group has expanded its aims and its operations. In a speech Wednesday unveiling the administration’s new counterterrorism strategy, senior White House aide John O. Brennan included Somalia among the countries where the administration has placed a new focus on al-Qaeda affiliates.

“As the al-Qaeda core has weakened under our unyielding pressure, it has looked increasingly to these other groups and individuals to take up its cause, including its goal of striking the United States,” said Brennan, Obama’s chief counterterrorism adviser. “From the territory it controls in Somalia,” he said, “al-Shabab continues to call for strikes against the United States.”

And earlier this month, in a hearing to confirm him as Obama’s new defense secretary, CIA Director Leon Panetta told senators that the agency had intelligence on al-Shabab “that indicates that they, too, are looking at targets beyond Somalia.” Panetta said al-Qaeda had moved some of its operations to “nodes” in Yemen, Somalia and North Africa. The CIA, he said, was working with the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command in those areas “to try to develop counterterrorism.”

The Special Operations Command carried out last week’s Somalia strike, the military official said.

...

It was not immediately clear what kind of unmanned aircraft was used in the attack or where the drone originated.

The Somalia thread for the week ending October 25, 2009 at this site covered some of the media on the MQ-9 Reaper Hunter/Killer UAV being stationed on Seychelles.

-- -- --

Inner City Press dispatch on Wednesday:

In Somalia as elsewhere, the UN counts casualties but doesn't say, at least on the record, who is responsible. The most recent UN report on Somalia says that “during the period of 10-19 June, [the UN / World Health Organization] reported 973 casualties from weapons-related wounds treated in the three main hospitals in Mogadishu.”

Inner City Press asked for the breakdown between those caused by Al Shabaab and those caused by the Transitional Federal Government or AMISOM troops. Officially, there is no answer. On background, the UN estimated 60% caused by Al Shabab, 40% by the government or peacekeepers.

The latter percentage is higher than the UN says publicly. Now the UN mission UNSOA has brought on board a retired UK general to try, it's said, to minimize civilian casualties from the AMISOM peacekeepers to which the UN provides logistical support.

At least this shows a plan. When Inner City Press has asked UN spokespeople on the record, they say it is entirely up to AMISOM, despite the UN assistance and payments provided to AMISOM.

That "estimate" is surely more PR than a fact-based accounting - was the UN deferring to AMISOM for numbers on that too, or just their PR damage-control support team that has been focused on negating this ugly fact of counterinsurgency operations in an urban setting? As the archives here help document, a reading of Somali-based reporting, including statements from Lifeline Africa Ambulance Service's Ali Muse, leads to the incontestable understanding that a major share of the fatalities and casualties have been attributable, both directly and indirectly, to AMISOM and TFG-aligned forces.

-- -- --

Daily Monitor: US offers Shs120b to Amisom

The US is offering spy drones among a huge military consignment to AMISOM to help bolster its capability to decimate the al- Shabaab, foreign media reported yesterday.

The package includes four shoulder-launched Raven drones, other surveillance systems, body armour, night-vision gadgets, generators as well as communications and heavy construction equipment, according to the New York Times. This aid package will cost Washington nearly $45 million (Shs111b).

Secret documents Associated Press news agency obtained from Pentagon show Uganda will separately receive unspecified military communication and engineering gadgets worth $4.4 million (Shs10.9b). “I am not aware. The consideration may still be at policy level. We have not yet received anything,” Uganda’s Defence and Military Spokesman, Lt. Col. Felix Kulayigye, said yesterday when contacted.

News of the military aid comes six weeks after Gen. Carter Ham, the new commander of US Africa Command (AFRICOM), visited Uganda and held talks with President Museveni at his home in Rwakitura, Kiruhura District, on May 10 about Somalia’s hazardous situation.

Mr John Dunne, the deputy public affairs officer at the US Mission in Kampala, said last evening that they have increased their military spending on AMISOM in line with US commitments made during the July 2010 AU summit in Kampala as “the situation in Mogadishu remains difficult”.

...

In yesterday’s email, Mr Dunne wrote: “We have and will continue to provide equipment, training, and some logistical support to Ugandan and Burundian soldiers.” To date, Washington has directly committed $185 million to support AMISOM operations in Mogadishu beside its other assessed contributions to the United Nations that provides logistical assistance to the continental force.

...

AMISOM Spokesman Paddy Ankunda, promoted yesterday to Lt. Col, said from Mogadishu that the equipment, when it arrives, will be “force multiplier”. He said al-Shabaab has lost the enthusiasm to fight but still maintain some capability to harm civilians through suicide bombings.

Disregarding the obvious spin here, if one is to take AMISOM at its word that H.S.M. only has the "capability to harm civilians through suicide bombings", that places the onus for other civilian casualities in Mogadishu squarely in the AMISOM camp.

The Observer: Museveni makes changes in UPDF

The reshuffle, according to our military source, is mainly aimed at boosting the AMISOM offensive against Al Shabaab extremists in Mogadishu, Somalia. The changes, according to the military source based in the Somali capital, have seen three Mogadishu-based Majors promoted to lieutenant colonel, albeit in acting capacity.

They are Paddy Ankunda, Chris Ogumiraki and Joab Ndahura, the 1st battalion commander. Ankunda continues to serve as commander, communications/public relations, for AMISOM...

-- -- --

UN News Centre: Ban calls for stepped-up action against attackers of children in armed conflicts

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today reiterated his concern over the growing number of attacks on schools and hospitals and threats to children in armed conflicts around the world, stating that the United Nations is considering targeted measures against those who commit such crimes.

“Beyond naming and shaming, we have a further tool we can consider employing to safeguard schools and hospitals in conflict,” said Mr. Ban at a panel discussion organized by Radhika Coomaraswamy, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict, and Germany’s Ambassador to the UN, Peter Wittig, ahead of next month’s general debate on the issue in the Security Council.

“The threat of targeted measures against repeat violators – especially non-State actors – is credible and effective,” the Secretary-General said.

He said the protection of schools and hospitals is central to the UN’s work to protect children from those who seek to deny them education and health care.

“Let us resolve to keep up the pressure on all who violate the rights of children in conflict, whether it is in conscripting child soldiers or threatening schools and hospitals,” said Mr. Ban.

As pointed out in the week-ending June 5 thread,

Over the past three weeks, of 1586 weapons-related injuries reported by three major hospitals in Mogadishu, 735 cases or 46% were children under the age of five. Compared to April, the number of children casualties reported was only 3.5%

...

..WHO said recent data showed that the main causes of death among under-fives were burns, chest injuries and internal haemorrhaging caused by blast injuries, shrapnel and bullets.

...

Marthe Everard, WHO's representative for Somalia, said: "This is the highest number of injured children that has been reported since the beginning of this year."

Fighting between government troops, backed by the African Union Mission in Somalia, and Al-Shabab has intensified in Mogadishu in recent weeks, with government troops trying to dislodge the insurgents from several parts of the city that had been under their control.

The correlation b/w the AMISOM military campaign to capture more territory and the increase in children casualities is obvious.

Re the use of child soldiers,

HRW: US: Press Allies to End Use of Child Soldiers

The United States should suspend military assistance to countries using child soldiers, Human Rights Watch said today.

On June 27, 2011, the US State Department released a list of six governments that use child soldiers in violation of US legislation adopted in 2008: Burma, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. Five of the countries - excluding Burma - receive US military assistance.

"The US strategy of just telling countries to stop using child soldiers is not working," said Jo Becker, children's rights advocate at Human Rights Watch. "So long as they keep getting US military assistance, these countries have little incentive to stop recruiting children."

The Child Soldiers Prevention Act of 2008 prohibits governments using child soldiers from receiving US foreign military financing, military training, and several other categories of US military assistance. The six countries identified in the new 2011 Trafficking in Persons report for using child soldiers were all included in the first State Department list in June 2010.

...

The administration contends that the military assistance it provides to Somalia is peacekeeping assistance that is not covered by the law. On June 22, Senators Richard Durbin of Illinois and John Boozman of Arkansas introduced legislation that would amend the Child Soldiers Prevention Act to prohibit peacekeeping operations assistance to governments of countries that recruit and use child soldiers.

-- -- --

FSNAU press release: 2.85 million people facing food security crisis in Somalia

FSNAU has just updated the number of people in crisis to 2.85million up from 2.4million reported in January (19% increase). The revised figures are the result of analysis done on the basis of new forecasts of the Gu harvest and its impact on the food security of the population. The overwhelming majority of the 2.85million are in the South (61% of the total population in crisis) where there is extremely limited food assistance due to insecurity. The 1.75 million people in crisis in the South include rural, urban and IDPs, an increase from 1.4million in January.

UN Deparment of Public Information: Press Conference by UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia

“We are seriously concerned about the rapidly deteriorating situation in Somalia, where, without a rapid and effective response, more lives will be lost through malnutrition,” warned Mark Bowden at a Headquarters press conference this afternoon. Citing worrying reports from refugee camps in Kenya and Ethiopia, which indicated extremely high global acute malnutrition rates among new arrivals from Somalia, he said: “We must take action now to avert larger-scale crisis.”

...

“Levels of distress are increasing throughout the country,” he said, but stressed that the epicentre of the burgeoning crisis was in the central and southern parts of the nation held by al-Shabaab.

These are also the areas being targeted by TFG-aligned and "dual track"-funded milita campaigns to eradicate resistance to transitional govt rule. The media reports so far have definitely downplayed any significance to displacement as the primary result of conflict in favor of a narrative stressing alarming ecological & agricultural conditions. But as reporting from inside Somalia continues to make clear, much of this displacement is directly attributable to military operations and the perceived threat of escalated conflict.

RBC: Residents start on displacement, as war tension renews in Gedo region

Residents in Burdhubo and Bardhere districts of Gedo region in southern Somalia begun to displace from their homes after new tensions arise between government forces and Al-Shabab rebels in the region.

Residents in Burdhubo told RBC Radio on Thursday that nearly hundred families evacuated from the district on Wednesday to Kenyan-Somali border to run from possible battle in their town.

The residents with their children have now reached Elwak, a district near the Kenyan border.

The new displacement begun after Somalia government announced on Wednesday fresh military assault against Al-Shabab fighters in the region.

In such conditions of destabilization amidst warnings of state-sponsored violence, who can seriously be expected to maintain a farm, herd or livelihood? May be of interest to map the regional figures cited in the table in the FSNAU link w/ those of recent military operations against H.S.M.

-- -- --

AHN: Two slain as Somali refugees, Kenyan police clash over demolishing a mosque

At least two people were killed and 11 others injured after Kenyan police clashed with Somali refugees over demolishing a mosque and small business stalls in the Dhagahley refugee camp in Dadaab, a home for thousands of refugees from Somalia in northeastern Kenya, witnesses said Thursday.
clearpxl

Kenyan police used tear gas to disperse Somalis protesting against moves by the government to pave the way for new roads in the Dhagahley area, according to an eyewitness who spoke to Shabelle, a radio station based in Mogadishu.

“Early Thursday morning, police arrived at the camp and started destroying a little mosque and business stalls,” the witness said. “The protest turned violent as Kenyan police started live rounds of ammunition against the refugees.”

The sounds of gunshots could be heard more two hours later as clashes between police and Somalis continued around Dhagahley.

-- -- --

HOL: Bloated Somali Parliament Overwhelmingly Endorsed New Premier Ali

The Somali parliament on Tuesday overwhelmingly approved Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali to take over the office after the recent resignation of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo.

...

Somali lawmakers endorsed the new premier by the show of hands in the house that for the first time in months appeared unanimously united. Ali was endorsed with 437 votes out of the 443 members present.

Only two Somali lawmakers voted against Ali’s takeover of the controversial office of Somali prime minister, while the rest did not took any stand during the critical house vote.

Shabelle Media: Somali president: Kampala Accord will not be implemented until parliament approves

The president of Somali interim federal government of Somalia on Tuesday announced that Kampala Accord will not be implemented until the parliament approves.

President Sheikh Sharif made the announcement while delivering a speech before the parliament after vote of vote of confidence was granted to his newly named prime minister, Dr. Abdiwel Mohamed Ali.

He noted he considers that the national interest is in the agreement, and also has interest for the exhausted Somali people.

The president reiterated he and the speaker of the parliament are committed to work work to gather for Somalis and the nation in general.

Would be interesting to hear what Sh. Sharif et al would then say should parliament end up not rubberstamping its approval of this controversial foreign agreement.

-- -- --

Faqi beats the new PM to the script...

AP: Somalia: US took bodies of militants after strike

U.S. military forces landed in Somalia to retrieve the bodies of dead or wounded militants after a U.S. drone strike targeted a group of insurgents, Somalia's defense minister told The Associated Press on Friday.

...

Defense Minister Abdulhakim Mohamoud Haji Faqi called on the U.S. to carry out more airstrikes against the al-Qaida-linked militants, though he admitted that Somali officials appear not to have been informed about the June 23 operation near the southern coastal town of Kismayo beforehand.

"But we are not complaining about that. Absolutely not. We welcome it," Faqi told AP. "We understand the U.S.'s need to quickly act on its intelligence on the ground," he said. "We urge the U.S. to continue its strikes against al-Shabab because if it keeps those strikes up, it will be easier for us to defeat al-Shabab."

...

Faqi said the June 23 attack was carried out by a U.S. drone, and that after the attack U.S. forces picked up militants who were either killed or injured. Residents in Kismayo reported hearing helicopters hovering overhead the night of the operation.

"We have intelligence reports from our own sources that the U.S. army picked up militants after the strike," Faqi said, declining to disclose them. He said that the Somalia government would release the militants' names when they're confirmed by DNA tests.

In late 2009 the U.S. deployed drone aircraft to the island nation of Seychelles. A U.S. official said then that the drones were primarily for anti-piracy efforts but that he couldn't rule out their use over Somalia.

...

Lt. Col. Paddy Ankunda, spokesman for the AU peacekeepers, welcomed the U.S. assistance, saying it will help the force increase its surveillance abilities. "With the help of drones, we can locate insurgents in real time and deal with them decisively," he said.

He also urged the U.S. to increase its strikes against militants to destroy insurgents' command and control capabilities. "If you eliminate al-Shabab leadership, you are limiting their power to conduct successful military operations," Ankunda said.

Even as the U.S. says it will increase its focus on al-Qaida and its affiliates, Faqi said al-Shabab fighters make an easier target than militants in Pakistan or Yemen, because Somalia has few mountainous areas that can serve as hideouts. He said he didn't believe militants in Somalia are as experienced as in other parts of the world.

...

Faqi said the U.S. pays the bulk of the army's salary, along with Italy, and that his government gets logistical and capacity building supports from America. He said his government is grateful but needs even more help with hospitals, communication equipment and vehicles.

Faqi said al-Shabab is in a "very, very difficult situation nowadays, financially, militarily and morally," and that any sustained aerial strikes would further weaken the militants, who control large swaths of the country's southern and central regions, including portions of the capital, Mogadishu, despite the success of the African Union offensive.

"There is mistrust among its top leaders, and between Somalis and foreigners. So I believe that new aerial strikes against its leaders will be another nail in the coffin of al-Shabab," he said.

-- -- --

Shabelle Media: Low-level flying aircrafts hover over southern Somalia town

Low-level flying aircrafts are seen hovering over parts of Kismayo port town, about 500 kilometers south of Mogadishu, witnesses said on Saturday.

Local residents said they faced dreadful conditions after they were awakened by the sounds of unknown aircrafts flying over Kismayo which is Al shabaab stronghold town.

The planes had been apparently doing surveillance operations in the area where is believed to be the hideout of foreign militants fighting alongside Al shabaab, which US alleges to be Al Qaeda’s proxy in the horn of Africa nation, according to an eyewitness in the neighborhood of Alanley in Kismayo.

The witness mentioned some of the local residents started fleeing from their homes as result of fear sparked by the aircrafts.

-- -- --

Daily Monitor: UPDF in Somalia complain over pay cuts

The successful UPDF operations in Somalia could be undermined by issues of remuneration as soldiers are complaining of delayed payment and unclear deductions from their allowances.

Some soldiers deployed in Somalia have told Sunday Monitor that $200 (about Shs500,000) out of $750 (about Shs1.5m) is deducted from their pay monthly without clear explanation.

They also say an increment to $1,028 a month that was promised by the commander of Land Forces, Gen. Katumba Wamala, when he visited the troops in January, has not been received.

And that compensation for the dead or injured is usually not received by all or if they do, it’s stressful to access as one has to be connected to powerful officers in order to easily be paid.

But the army denies any ill intentions and acknowledges some delays in payment; which, according to them, is not by commission.

The agitated soldiers told this newspaper that when Gen. Katumba made the pay rise promise, they were excited but that was soon extinguished when the Chief of Defence Forces, Gen. Aronda Nyakairima, who reportedly visited them and said there would be no increment.

One Maj. Kamara who had been deployed in Somalia reportedly raised the matter of delayed remuneration and compensation to Gen. Aronda during his January visit. After the incident though, Maj. Kamara was reportedly sent back home and asked to report to the Chief of Personnel and Administration for redeployment which, however, has not happened to-date. It is not known if the two developments are linked. We failed to reach Maj. Kamara for his side of the story.

...

“We became suspicious after the CDF contradicted Gen. Katumba on our pay rise,” a soldier said on condition of anonymity, “They say $200 is deducted for equipment but the UN told us that the government had been paid for two years and equipment provided.”

However, Gen. Wamala told Sunday Monitor on Thursday that the increment had been made and payment done up to May. He defended the $200 deduction saying it was meant to take care of other provisions.

“It was part of the MoU which is in black and white,” said Gen. Wamala, “When we went into the mission, the MoU between Uganda and AU said Uganda was going to be a budget neutral operation meaning that the government of Uganda would not provide anything in its budget.”

He said the soldiers who thought the mission was for making money would continue complaining. Defence Ministry and army spokesman Felix Kulayigye confirmed the increment had been made but the soldiers were paid the old rate of $750.

“ It’s true the payment was supposed to be $1,028 beginning with the first disbursement of this year from January to April but the UN only sent money at the rate of $750,” he said, “ The top-up has been sent to make it $1,028; they (troops) are going to receive the top-up effective Tuesday next week.”

Soldiers had told us that they received only one month pay in June but Lt. Col. Kulayigye has said payment for January to March had been done. “ It’s not true that we paid only one month; in fact even money for May has been received on the government account but not yet accessed by the soldiers,” he said.

The army publicist said the alleged delays in payment and compensation were partly the African Union problem. “That is a problem in Addis-Ababa,” he said, “The issue of compensation is not Uganda government; AU pays after doing their own study.”

On the deductions, Lt. Col. Kulayigye said “in the MoU, the government is entitled to retain $200 for operational costs.” He, however, did not say why that deduction is still counted on the soldiers allowances not as a direct remittance from AU to the government of Uganda. The soldiers see it as a tax on their pay by the government yet their operation logistics were provided for by AU and UNISOA, a UN logistics body.

The soldiers who spoke to us were suspicious that their superiors could either be making a killing through the cuts or making profits through the banks by delaying remittance of their allowances.

-- -- --

A weak Al Jazeera program, Inside Story, focuses on African Union: Beyond passive peacekeeping?

The program opens w/ presenter Shiulie Gosh incorrectly claiming that "last month the mandate of the AU mission was expanded from peacekeeping to enforcement of peace. It means that AU soldiers can now lead the onslaught against al-Shabaab."

Al Jazeera's Mogadishu correspondant, Mohammed Adow, in a video report while embedded in an AMISOM unit, chooses his words a little more carefully, instead refering to AMISOM's foreign fighters "taking advantage of a change in the rules of engagement" to take the war to H.S.M.

But the UPDF continues w/ the "m" word: "The mandate has been so useful to us, because now we have options of pursuing Al Shabaab," states Colonel Paul L'Oketch. "We are no longer restricted... we are no longer restricted... we can just go on the offensive, and get there, ...and enforce peace and secure the area."

As the video report ends and the presenter begins addressing the program's guests, Gosh adjusts her description when posing her first question - "Do you think the extension of the rules of engagement will help" AMISOM deflect criticism (from whom?) that it hasn't done enough?

But when she goes on to ask her first question of the second guest on the program, she shows how poorly informed on this subject she truly is - "What do you think is the feeling of ordinary Somalis that, uh, the mandate of the AU [sic] has now been expanded from being able to be, uh, more offensive in chasing out Al Shabaab?"

Admittedly though, she offbeatly nails it w/ the description of whatever impetus AMISOM may believe it is operating under currently as "being able to be more offensive".

The controversial Omar Jamal, as the third guest, uses the term "extended mandate" twice in his response to a question posed re the "expanded" mandate.

There's no question that the mandate was extended again for this year (thru Sept), as it has been every year now since 2007, but where is any proof that the mandate itself was changed wrt taking the fight to the enemy? As I pointed out previously, there are no public documents to back up the rhetoric.

An article last week in The Independent.co.ug stated

“Our forces have become more offensive and the fight is now in the al Shabaab’s half,” [AMISOM spokesman Maj. Paddy] Ankunda said, “I think with more troops and logistics, Mogadishu should fall soon.” Although the AMISOM mandate has not changed, its Rules of Engagement have and now allow the force to be more robust in the conduct of offensive defence.

As that article points out, a force's mandate is not the same thing as a ROE. They are not supposed to be interchangeable terms. Mahiga's comments around this time last year specifically recommended leaving the mandate alone and adjusting one's interpretation to allow for enhanced ROE. That could be what UPDF officials (and official propagandists) are refering to.

But then that was already supposed to have changed 12 months ago, which they took no time to start acting upon in capturing territory. So why refer to that as something new? From July 28, 2010, United Nations blocks change of Amisom mandate

The African Union summit yesterday bowed to pressure from the United Nations and turned down a request that it support a change in the mandate of its peacekeeping mission in war-torn Somalia.

After three days of deliberations, the AU Summit, however, closed with a promise of more troops from more African countries to join Uganda and Burundi, which together currently have their soldiers serving under the African peacekeeping mission in Somalia (Amisom).

Pre-emptive strikes

It was also agreed that Amisom, which has until now been hobbled by a mandate which restricts its troops to firing back only when attacked, now enjoy a change in rules of engagement -- meaning they are free to carry out pre-emptive strikes against the al Shabaab radical Islamist militants.

ROE's change depending on the phase of operation or on other factors, internal and external. Claiming right now that a ROE has been changed to allow the foreign fighters to "be more offensive" thus comes across as more of a propaganda talking point rather than promoting anything new. As is talk of the much-requested always-rejected mandate change in degree of orwellian phrasing from "peacekeeping" to "peace enforcement."

-- -- --

The reporter of this article veers into delusional territory more than once but the story points out the repeated use of heavy, indiscriminate weapons fire...

New Vision: ‘Popcorn’ rules Mogadishu streets

Simon Etuket is sweating profusely one would think he has a fever. And so I thought until he corrected me.

“It is because it is very hot here. These popcorn machines make the situation hotter too,” Etuket said as he manned one of the heavy machine guns, mounted on the top of a Caspir Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC), as it speeded through the potholed streets of Mogadishu.

Occasionally, he let off a round, from his monster gun, another and another...

His face twitched, his head nodded as he let off one round after the other from the machine gun. Momentarily, he stopped firing and slowly turned the muzzle to another direction.

Then the gun went off again. His head nodding, his face beaming with each round of popcorn released. The convoy momentarily stopped just before Juba Hotel. This is battle territory.

Etuket bends to be able to see the horizon beyond the guns, but his firing was so measured — there was no doubt he knew what he was doing. To effectively reach the gun, he piled together several metallic boxes, then stood on top of them. There were so many boxes inside the fortified battle wagon filled with thousands of groundnuts and popcorns that if this was indeed food, the recipient would never go hungry.

But as soon as it negotiates a corner, the popcorn goes off again, Etuket nods, his face lightens up and his entire body shakes in unison to the firing.

Hearing Etuket’s and other guns from a distance is like listening to the pop of corn as it is being prepared and occasionally boo... similar to noise made when pounding ground nuts in an African mortar. This is why the soldiers refer to the bullets as popcorns and groundnuts. “This is the main food for those people. This is what they like eating most,” Etuket said.

...

At the Juba I and II fronts, the militants dug tunnels around the interior ministry building and several other buildings. AMISOM counters this by firing heavily into the tunnels.

“Fungua bara bara,” (Clear the way) Etuket exclaims as his 20mm bursts into life again. The other caspirs in the convoy opened up too, firing their red-hot groundnuts and popcorn into the empty buildings by the roadsides.

Yes, rats like popcorn and groundnuts, while the Al Shabaab are hiding in their ‘rat holes’ they receive roasted groundnuts and popcorn beyond measure!

Because of this firing, the forces expend a lot of groundnuts and popcorn that they have to be replenished regularly.

“When I talked to one of our commanders in Mogadishu, he told me that the ground nuts were getting finished,” President Yoweri Museveni said recently.

...

The battles are so close within these walls that sometimes, the belligerents stop roasting popcorn and turn to verbal artillery. “Most of them speak Swahili so they insult us,” a soldier facing the gates of Bakara, a distance away from El Hindi, says. When the verbal artillery fails, they throw stones at each other!

“We need human and other intelligence. We have to know what is happening behind the next wall,” a commander says. This will now be possible, after the US government announced that they were giving unmanned drones to the forces.

-- -- --

The East African: EA countries get more US aid for fighting Al-Shabaab

The US is escalating its military involvement in Somalia with a recent drone strike against Islamist insurgents and the provision of nearly $50 million in new military aid to Uganda and Burundi, the countries that make up the African Union fighting force inside Somalia.

In further US moves to bolster allies in East Africa, Kenya is set to receive $12 million for helicopter upgrades and training. Djibouti, the host of a large US military base, will get $17.7 million for aircraft.

...

The US will also deploy four hand-launched drones for reconnaissance purposes in Somalia. These Raven drones, which weigh only two kilogrammes and can fly for up to 90 minutes, are being given to Uganda and Burundi as part of the counter-terrorism package.

...

Washington has previously supplied hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid to Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government and to the African Union’s military mission in Somalia (Amisom). But this new infusion of aid is going only to neighbouring countries and not to the TFG itself — perhaps reflecting US expressions of frustration with the TFG’s performance.

The equipment being supplied to Uganda and Burundi includes body armour, night-vision gear, communications devices, generators, heavy-construction machinery and surveillance apparatus. Training for the use of the equipment is to be provided as well.

The Raven drones apparently do not carry weapons, but the US-Africa Command (Africom) announced two years ago that it was using MQ-9 Reaper drones, which have an armed capability to track suspected pirate ships in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden.

That initiative, carried out from a base in the Seychelles, came to an end in the spring of 2010, according to an Africom spokesman. The Reaper drones were not armed and were part of a US-Seychelles collaborative effort to determine the feasibility of using drones in support of security operations in East Africa, the spokesman added.

“While we can’t get into specifics, we view the operation as successful,” he told The EastAfrican.

Somalia thread for the week ending June 26

On Monday,

Shabelle Media: Somali president, parliament speaker disagree naming new PM

After crucial lengthy meeting held in the Somalia capital Mogadishu, the president of Somalia, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and the parliament speaker, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adam have disagreed naming new prime minister.

The meeting is said to have lasted for several hours as some of Mogadishu journalists, who were invited by the president to named the new PM, had deserted after being told the ceremony was postponed.

Before that the resigned prime minister and the minister of international cooperation have joined the meeting between Somali president and parliament speaker in Villa Somalia.

After minutes, parliament speaker walked out with his face appearing to be very angry, according to the journalists who reached at Villa Somalia.

Last night, the two leaders had reportedly agreed the minister of international cooperation, Abdiwai Mohamed Ali to be named as Somalia’s next prime minister, but later parliament speaker refused.

From Tuesday,

Somalia Report (scroll down):

Yet Adan is not comfortable with the lurking presence of Farmajo, and literally wants him as far away as possible. The speaker, not content with forcing out Farmajo, is also unhappy about Acting Prime Minister Abdiwali Muhammad Ali, believing the former premier influenced this selection.

A lawmaker told Somalia Report that Shaykh Sharif and Adan met Monday over the acting prime minister, who will serve for the maximum of 30 days stipulated in the Kampala Accord for a successor to be named, and may be a candidate for the job full-time.

“The speaker is reluctant about the proposed PM,” Ali Mahmud (Seko), told Somalia Report. “What I don`t understand is why it is the business of the speaker to select a premier.”

A close associate of Farmajo told Somalia Report that Adan and his allies (mainly members of the old Sharmarke cabinet) are not happy that Abdiwali, like the former premier, is from the western-educated elite and friends with Farmajo.

“By appointing Abdiwali, the speaker and his allies fear he will rule like Farmajo and nothing might change,” the source said.

The speaker also proposed a cash offer of $1 million and a job offer as Somalia`s Ambassador to the UN, based in Nairobi, for the premier, and pressured AMISOM to threaten to remove Farmajo`s security if he did not quit, a source in the premier`s office said.

From a commentary published at WDN: Sharief Eats Farmajo,Thanks to Gunboat Diplomacy

The news leaking from Villa Somalia states that he was given in the presence of Sheikh Sharief, the President, a one-hour ultimatum by the general commanding AMISOM to which the PM had no option but to comply. Deputy Prime Minister Abdulweli, a friend, was appointed as PM ad interim. With an impeccable background Abdulweli will, I am sure, acquit himself of the tasks entrusted to him. But this should be a dark day for Somalia, for what happened represents the triumph of power over principle, of treachery over nationalism, and of personal rule over constitutional rule.

Despite the repeated reaffirmation of the UN Security Council of Somalia’s sovereignty, political unity and territorial integrity we are confronted today with the stark, ugly and shocking reality that the country’s sovereignty is only nominal and that old gunboat diplomacy is alive and well.

...

It seems that Mr. Museveni took Farmajo’s attempt to stay in office by making recourse to Parliament as a personal affront to him which required a retaliatory response. According to the news coming out of Mogadishu that response, delivered by the Commander of the Ugandan troops to Prime Minister Farmajo in the presence of Sheikh Sharief, came in the form of an ultimatum, which stated that Farmajo would lose Ugandan protection of his personal security unless he tendered his resignation in writing within the hour. Facing this threat to his life Prime Minister Farmajo had no option but to resign without further ado.

This desperate and dishonorable act was also taken to pre-empt any action on the part of Parliament to annul the Kampala Accord and confirm Farmajo in office.

...

The presence of foreign troops in a country reduces the sovereignty of that country. It is easy to invite foreign troops, but it is difficult to get rid of them when they prove counterproductive, or to give them instructions when they deviate from their original mission. What the Somalis are experiencing under the Ugandans is exactly the same as what they were experiencing under the Ethiopians...

From another commentary, also published at WDN: Somalia falls into the abyss of IGAD, with no rescue mission in prospect

Somalis should start thinking deep and hard about the fate of their country as it slides towards total collapse and in the history dustbin is almost complete, if not already completed. The infamous and rather cruel Kampala Accord stipulates that IGAD and their international partners, not Somalis, have the ultimate say in the running of Somali affairs. It is incumbent on all Somalis wherever they are, particularly those in the Diaspora community who have the means and the liberty to liberate their country from the grip of IGAD, to start the process of salvaging their nation now. A Few more years down the line, there might be no country to come back and call home. As for the Somalis back home, it is time to do or die as there are no more options left for them. They are already dying in a slow and painful death in their own homes. With the help of their own kith and kin, their homeland is usurped by their old age enemies.

On Thursday,

Not much left hidden in who's picking the transitional govt these days... Two US American PM's in a row now (Sharmarke, though residing in VA before getting the nod, did not have US citizenship so he doesn't count).

AP: Somalia president names Harvard-educated Somali-American economist as new prime minister

omalia`s president on Thursday named a Somali-American economist as the country`s new prime minister, saying the Harvard graduate will help end bickering between the executive and the legislature that has paralyzed the fragile government for months.

Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, who previously taught economics at Niagara University in Lewiston, New York, was elevated from his position as minister of planning and international cooperation.

Ali`s appointment puts a highly educated technocrat high within the Mogadishu administration. Ali has graduate degrees in public administration from Harvard and another in economics from Vanderbilt University.

President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed lauded Ali for his “very clean” record during the announcement at the presidential palace in Mogadishu. Ahmed said he hoped that Ali`s government would help improve ties with the international community, which has been dismayed by the constant bickering among Somalia`s leaders.

From a January 2011 Kennedy School of Govt press release, when Ali initially left to join the technocrats in Farmajo's cabinet, also featured in the above link

Ali, who received the Joel Leff Fellowship while at HKS, believes that his work in Mogadishu will be enhanced by his Kennedy School education, saying that his time at Harvard was “instrumental on my political outlook, particularly in my perspective on the economical and political challenges facing developing countries including fragile states like Somalia.”

Gettleman in the NYT points out that

Mr. Ali’s résumé (PDF) reads like the itinerary on a tour of prominent American universities: it says he holds a master’s degree in public administration from Harvard, a master’s degree in economics from Vanderbilt and a Ph.D. in economics from George Mason University. In recent years, he has been teaching economics at Niagara University in upstate New York.

An article in the Global Post adds:

A new prime minister who looks much like the old one but the two main men - allies turned rivals - are still in charge.

Somalia’s new Prime Minister is a US-educated technocrat and American passport holder who’s lived outside his war-torn homeland for most of the last 20-years, he sports spectacles a ‘tache and is called Mohamed… much like his ousted predecessor.

Abdiweli Mohamed Ali replaces Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed...

From a press release by the US Embassy in Nairobi:

The United States Government welcomes the appointment of the new transitional Prime Minister of Somalia, Dr. Abdiweli Mohamed Ali. We are encouraged at the speed with which the Transitional Federal Government President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed made this appointment. The United States looks forward to working with Dr. Abdiweli in the days ahead in support of both the Djibouti Peace Process and the completion of the transitional tasks. The United States calls for the quick endorsement of the Prime Minister and new cabinet by the Transitional Federal Parliament.

Will Ali too be sticking to the well-worn PM script equating Somalia and Afghanistan in terms of US national security and calling for US military air attacks on H.S.M.?

-- -- --

Daily Nation: AU force closing in on Mogadishu’s prized market in tricky urban warfare

Right now there are signs that Bakara market will be taken by the Ugandan and Burundi peacekeepers by October. It is what [Col Paul Lokech, the commander of Ugandan forces in Mogadishu,] calls a “concentrated urban area" that can only be approached using less lethal weapons to avoid damage to property.

Taking the market in August is out of the question since it will be Ramadhan, and al-Shabaab is known to be very lethal during fasting periods as they “fight to die”.

The plan to take Bakara involves cutting out the area up to a road junction that leads to the market using two battle fronts run by Burundians and Ugandans.

The war is already being planned by two officers: Lt Col John Mugaruwa and Lt Col Antony Mbuusi whose forces are now at the Red Mosque, a few metres from the market, advancing from west to east.

Once the troops cut out all access roads to the market, they can then advance on it. As the battle rages for Mogadishu, the transitional federal government is also battling insurgents in Gedo, Hiran, Galgadud and Kismayu.

Speaking of which,

UN High Commissioner for Refugees: Kenya sees 20,000 Somali refugees arriving in just two weeks

UNHCR is alarmed by a dramatic rise in the number of new refugee arrivals from Somalia into Kenya. Over the past two weeks the Dadaab refugee complex in northern Kenya has received more than 20,000 Somali refugees. The new arrivals are mostly farmers and animal herders from Lower Juba and the city of Dhobley.

During 2010, Dadaab received an average of 6,000 to 8,000 Somalis every month. This year the monthly average has increased to 10,000 refugees, with more than 55,000 new arrivals since the beginning of the year. The numbers are rising sharply, with some1,300 people arriving daily over the past two weeks.

...

Overcrowding at the Dadaab complex is an additional challenge. This month the camp population passed the 360,000 mark. Dadaab is the largest refugee settlement in the world, similar in size to European cities such as Nice, Florence or Bilbao.

...

The ongoing conflict in Somalia has led to thousands of deaths and massive displacement. There are now more than 750,000 Somali refugees living in the region, mostly in neighbouring Kenya (394,000), Yemen (187,000) and Ethiopia (110,000). Another 1.46 million are displaced within Somalia. The Dadaab refugee complex, initially designed to shelter some 90,000 refugees, was established in 1991 and 1992 following the collapse of the Siad Barre government in Somalia.

-- -- --

Some confusion in the reporting on air attacks on H.S.M. near Kismaayo

Reuters: Aircraft attack rebel base in south Somalia - rebels

Unidentified aircraft attacked an insurgent base near the southern Somali port of Kismayu late on Thursday, wounding a number of fighters, al Shabaab officials and residents said.

...

Kismayu residents said the aircraft -- some said helicopters, others said planes -- attacked a place called Qandal about 10 km (6 miles) south of the port, where foreign jihadists within al Shabaab's ranks stay.

...

Sheikh Hassan Yacqub, the spokesman for al Shabaab in Kismayu, told an insurgent-run radio station two unidentified helicopters had attacked the group's troops while on patrol and that some fighters were wounded in an exchange of fire.

"We heard heavy bombing and gunfire including the sound of anti-aircraft weapons but we don't know the specific area nor the casualties caused," a resident who gave his name as Ibrahim told Reuters from Kismayu.

"I was told that many al Shabaab injured were brought to the hospital but I didn't see it with my own eyes," he said.

Another resident who lives about 5 km from Qandal said there were huge blasts. An Islamist commander said that several insurgents had been wounded in the attack, which he blamed on the United States and France.

HOL:

Somalia’s Islamist opposition group on Friday said they have retaliated against US and French drone attacks against their strongholds in the South of the Horn of Africa Country.

The spokesman of Al-Shabaab fighters, Sheikh Hassan Yackub told the local media that fighter jets belonging to the two countries have hit the group’s military positions in Qadanlka, a remote hamlet in the eastern periphery of Somalia’s port city of Kismayu.

The official however said, they have responded to the drone attacks that have wounded two of their militants who were part of a strong contingent of Al-Shabaab fighters present at the military base.

AP:

An airstrike from military aircraft hit a convoy carrying al-Qaida-linked militants in southern Somalia, witnesses said Friday. A Somali defense official said a "partner country" carried out the attack, while a militant leader confirmed that insurgents were wounded.

According to a resident in the coast town of Kismayo, planes struck a military convey as it drove along the coastline late Thursday. The resident, Mohamed Aden, said he saw three wounded militants in the city.

...

A U.S. Embassy spokesman in neighboring Nairobi, Kenya, said all calls on the issue needed to be referred to the Pentagon.

Abdirashid Mohamed Hidig, Somalia's deputy defense minister, said a "partner country" carried out the attack. He called it a successful military operation.

"The target was one of their (al-Shabab's) most important fortresses where foreigners were staying," he said. "It's not only that attack but there will be further military attacks targeting them. There are casualties inflicted to them but we shall release that information later."

The overnight strike near Kismayo occurred near a militant camp, leading some residents to assume the camp was being attacked.

"We heard bangs of explosions first and again after minutes, more loud blasts," said Ali Abdinur, a resident, said by phone. "I don't know what happened but the place was an al-Shabab camp."

Yaqub, the al-Shabab leader, talked to a militant-run radio station after the attack.

"Two enemy aircraft attacked our mujahedeen fighters at a time they were conducting a security patrol near Kismayo" he told the radio station.

Aden, the Kismayo resident, said aircraft flew over Kismayo and that there were then two loud bangs. Militants immediately cordoned off the area and ferried the wounded — and possibly any deaths — to the city.

Aden said he visited the scene of the attack and saw two destroyed pickup trucks and a third heavily damaged car.

"The damages to the cars indicate that there may have been deaths, but it is hard to confirm because the attack took place immediately after sunset and no one was allowed to access it until Friday morning," he said.

Aden said that al-Shabab fighters fired at the aircraft, including a helicopter.

Shabelle Media:

Local residents told Shabelle Media Network that the helicopters targeted Al shabaab military base in Qandal area just outside of Kismayo.

Residents also noted that foreign fighters are believed to be there when the raid took place on Thursday. Heavy sounds of explosion with the sound of helicopters could be heard during the aerial attack.

RBC:

At least two senior Al-Shabab members were killed and two others wounded in an airstrike by unknown helicopter on Thursday night.

Residents in Kismayo told RBC Radio that at least two airstrike had been heard from Kandala village, 50-km west of Kismayo, the regional capital of Somalia’s Jubba region.

Two Al-Shabab injured officials were brought to Kismayo main hospital, eye witnesses confirmed RBC Radio with anonymity condition.

The aistrike is thought to be targeted foreign elements of Al-Shabab members who were meeting in the area.

But Sheikh Hassan Ya’qub Ali, the leader of Al-Shabab administration in Jubba told Al-Shabab’s run radio in Kismayo that the airstrike hit local fishers in Kandala village where he said many innocent fishers were murdered.

“The infidels targeted local fishers, they killed two and this is part of their criminal acts”. he added.

NYT:

At least 15 insurgents were killed in a foreign helicopter attack on a Shabab rebel military base near Kismayo, Somalia, witnesses and officials said Friday. The attack, which occurred on Thursday, killed at least 15 Shabab commanders, including eight foreigners, a local human rights organization said. It was not clear who carried out the attack.

Not everyone is going to be sticking around to sort out what really happened...

Shabelle Media: Residents start displacing after air-strike in Kisamayo

Residents in southern Somalia town of Kismayo started displacing from their homes a day after unknown helicopters launched aerial attacks there.

...

Most of the displacing people are herders and pastoralists as they faced fearful conditions. They are heading towards the towns of Dhobley, Afmadow and other areas in Lower Jubba region.

Reports from Kismayo suggested that a large number of Al shabaab fighters reached the targeted Qandal area and started seach operations there.

-- -- --

Sick joke of the week award goes to the opening sentence in the UN Security Council President's statement before the 6564th meeting

The Security Council reiterates its respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, political independence and unity of Somalia.

-- -- --

A Daily Monitor interview w/ "the commander of the Ugandan Amisom contigent, Col. Paul Lokech" openly states that AMISOM's mandate was changed.

"Taking over Mogadishu is not the problem, but securing it is"

People say you are no longer peacekeepers because you are fighting to gain ground, and in fact, others have called you aggressors. What is your comment?

No, no. When the first battle group came, it was about peacekeeping. But we later realised that there was no peace to keep. There was absolutely no peace to keep. Later on, the mandate was changed to peace enforcement. We are now enforcing peace. You must also remember that the Mission is here to protect and support TFG institutions. We are building TFG forces and we are also supposed to conduct support operations for humanitarian assistance. These are some of the roles we are supposed to play, according to the new mandate.

AU and IGAD members had been pushing on numerous occassions for a change in AMISOM's mandate which the UN and international partners always publicly rejected. The requests were to allow AMISOM to take the fight to the enemy (under the nonsensical phrase "peace enforcement") whereas the existing mandate only provided for "the right of self defense". Pressure was put on enhancing the mandate especially after the Kampala bombings last summer, which were in retaliation for the slaughter of innocent Somalis due to indiscriminate attacks on insurgent strongholds in Mogadishu, and while an increase in the number of forces was agreed on, the last word on the mandate change itself was that the existing one would remain intact although the interpretation of it would be stretched to encompass the notion of pre-emptive self-defense (another nonsense phrase invoked to mask actuality) and AMISOM could being offensive operations. So what is Lokech referring to here? Did the mandate actually get quietly changed to "peace enforcement" at some point since last July or is he just misinformed/misinforming? There is no official public document, AFAIK, that shows the AMISOM "mandate was changed to peace enforcement" as he claims.

Continuing w/ that interview, in which Lokech talks alot but isn't really saying much...

Let’s first get the al Shabaab out of our way and you will see the rest coming because they are burden to development. Once we secure Mogadishu, everything will flow.

If you flash them out of Mogadishu, won’t they go to Kisamayo and still come to attack your positions?

If they go to Kisimayo, the TFG forces will follow them. We shall not stop at chasing them out Mogadishu; we shall support TFG forces to pursue them whenever they will be. As long as they are in Somalia, we shall deal with them. At the moment, we are training, mentoring and restructuring them. It’s just a question of time for them to have a strong force and secure this country.

When we visited the frontlines yesterday, it was only UPDF and the Burundian forces fighting while the TFG forces are behind the African peacekeepers. Is this the kind of mentoring you are talking about?

They are there. Maybe you didn’t identify them because they put on the same uniform like the UPDF. [!!!] They are very good fighters. These are former warriors. What they lack is organisation. Secondly, this element of clanism is a very big problem here. It will take them sometime before they change this mentality of clannish society.

When shall we see you taking over Bakaara Market and eventually Mogadishu?

I don’t want to talk about timelines but we shall soon have it under our control. It’s the main economic hub of al Shabaab. That is where they get money to sustain their operations. We are already in the vicinity of Bakara. It is just a question of time. Taking over Mogadishu is not the problem, but securing it is the problem. You can take it over in a month, but you need man power to sustain the takeover.

-- -- --

AP: US taps $45M in gear for terror fight in Somalia

The Pentagon is sending nearly $45 million in military equipment, including four small drones, to Uganda and Burundi to help battle the escalating terrorist threat in Somalia.

The latest aid, laid out in documents obtained by The Associated Press, comes as attacks intensify in Somalia against the al-Qaida-linked terror group al-Shabab, including an airstrike late Thursday that hit a militant convoy, killing a number of foreign fighters, according to officials there.

...

The Pentagon plan is aimed at helping to build the counterterrorism capabilities of Uganda and Burundi, two African Union nations that have sent about 9,000 peacekeeping forces to Somalia. The military aid includes four small, shoulder-launched Raven drones, body armor, night-vision gear, communications and heavy construction equipment, generators and surveillance systems. Training is also provided with the equipment.

In addition, the Pentagon will send $4.4 million in communications and engineering equipment to Uganda.

From an AMISOM-embedded press entourage report in the Daily Nation earlier in the week, AU force wins hearts and minds in the battle of Mogadishu

On the front line in Mogadishu, where we spent the better part of the day, the Amisom force is conducting “suppressive firing” to keep the insurgents on their toes.

Buildings close to the front line have been vacated by civilians. The area has lots of deep trenches dug by the militants who have also blocked streets with shipping containers. There are also tunnels that run right under the road.

Travel on the roads near insurgent areas is strictly by South African-made Casper armoured cars, two soldiers atop with guns at the ready. Inside, each passenger wears a bullet-proof vest and helmet, all weighing 14 kilogrammes. Many are soaked in sweat.

The speed of the armoured vehicle keeps changing. As the driver passes hostile areas, the speed is increased.

Anyone standing on the road is met by massive hooting, indicating he or she jump off to safety or risk being swept off by the furious convoy.

Suppressive fire is, essentially, another name for indirect fire, which AMISOM continues to publicly deny employing.

Continuing w/ selections from the report,

At this moment, both the Burundians and their Ugandan counterparts are approaching Bakara from two different fronts, the aim being to meet at the heart of the market.

Amisom’s secret weapon has been the residents of the areas it occupies whom it wins over with free medical care, and water and food supplies.

...

Once any locality is captured by Amisom, civilians return to rebuild their houses and benefit from services offered by the soldiers.

These civilians are checked by local elders who work closely with Amisom and the transitional government’s army.

The civilians serve as a buffer zone between Amisom and the insurgents. [COIN tactic of creating a friendly population buffer.]

“The situation changes every day. Last year, Amisom estimated that it needed 20,000 troops and sent a report to the UN. The UN mandate allowed only 12,000 soldiers,” says Captain Hakizima.

Lacking the fighting force that it believes can do the job, Amisom now trains Somali government soldiers at bases in Uganda, Ethiopia and Kenya.

Some of the native soldiers are able to hold their own as a group of visiting journalists witnessed during the tour conducted by Amisom on Monday.

The press junket narrative focuses on the importance of getting the civilians in the buffer zone to like the foreign forces b/c they provide needed services. The COIN objective is likely something else - not that of being liked but, rather, building dependency and networks of loyalists and valuable sources of HUMINT. And of the last sentence quoted, one wonders how that squares w/ the account cited earlier from the Daily Monitor correspondant/interviewer who noted only AMISOM fighters on the front lines.
-- -- --

Shabelle Media: Somali military officer: We are at war on Al shabaab controlled areas

The Somali military forces in Gedo region in southern Somalia on Saturday threatened they will launch a huge offensive against Al shabaab controlled areas in south of the country.

Somali military commander at Gedo region, Jamal Hassan said in an interview with Shabelle Media Network that recently trained soldiers are right now prepared to assault Al shabaa fighters in the regions of Bay, Bakool Lower and Middle Jubba.

Somalia thread for the week ending June 19

Sh. Sharif did not appreciate the popular demonstrations in support of Farmajo and in opposition to his acceptance of the Kampala accord, extending his term in office for another year. On Sunday, Sh. Sharif had complained to the media that last week's protests were funded w/i the transitional govt by Farmajo loyalists along w/ some MPs and that the rallies provide cover for H.S.M. actions inside AMISOM-controlled areas inside Mogadishu.

Shabelle Media: Somali police stop Mogadishu people from holding rallies

Somali police forces on Tuesday stopped some of Mogadishu people from holding rallies supporting Somalia’s popular Prime Minister Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed and against his resignation.

The police forces also arrested a number of the demonstrators including students and teachers.

Before the arrests, crowds of people have congregated the KM4 junction to show their overwhelming support to prime minister.

The demonstrators were planning to hold a rally bigger than the previous ones, according to the organizers.

This did not stop protests elsewhere, both in Somalia and throughout the diaspora.
Shabelle Media: Rallies supporting Somali PM held in central Somalia

Hundreds of people on Wednesday have gathered the town of Abudwak in central Somalia, supporting the prime minister of Somalia and denouncing Kampala accord.

The rallies, which were massive, have been highly organized by the local administration of Somalia’s moderate Ahlu Sunna Waljama ASWJ and some local elders.

Daily Nation: Somali MPs support premier in row

Somali MPs on Wednesday supported Prime Minister Abdullahi Mohamed’s rejection of a deal extending the mandate of the country’s transitional institutions but requiring him to resign immediately.

Somali MPs on Wednesday supported Prime Minister Abdullahi Mohamed’s rejection of a deal extending the mandate of the country’s transitional institutions but requiring him to resign immediately.

...

Somali MPs on Wednesday supported Prime Minister Abdullahi Mohamed’s rejection of a deal extending the mandate of the country’s transitional institutions but requiring him to resign immediately.

From a commentary by Liban Ahmad published at WDN: The Illegality of Kampala Accord

President Sharif Ahmed likened Mogadishu demonstrators to clan-based opposition groups that “did not share any goals beyond toppling [ Siyad Barre’s ] government.” Somali president’s wrong analogy is contradicted by the civic nature of demonstrations in Mogadishu seen by any as unprecedented in Somalia’s post-colonial political history. President Sharif said he was against dissolving the government but wants prime minister Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed to resign. Isn’t this an evidence that the Somali president and his prime minister do not agree on the meaning of transitional government? Prime minister Mohamed wants the parliament to ratify the Kampala Accord, and has the transitional charter is on his side but putting Kampala Accord forward for parliamentary debate violates Kampala accord !

The United Nations Political Office for Somalia has an institutional memory that predisposes the incumbent Special Representative to making serious diplomatic mistakes. In 2010 former UN Special Representative, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, supported the decision of the TFG president Sharif Ahmed to sack his former prime minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke. President Sharif Ahmed had to reinstate the prime minister who invoked the transitional charter to challenge the president’s decision. More than one year after Ould-Abdallah’s costly gaffe, the UN Secretary General was made to believe that Kampala Accord is the way forward for the transitional federal institutions of Somalia on the basis of an Accord that is an exercise in illegality. I wonder if the United Nations under Ban Ki-Moon has set a precedent for supporting an Accord violating a national charter although the UN Special Representative for Somalia holds PhD in International Relations.

From an open letter [pdf] to Ban ki-Moon from members of the disapora,

One of the principle factors that perpetuated the Somali crises for more than two decades is lack of respect for the legitimate aspirations of the Somali people. In this regard and with respect to the substance of this Accord, the Somali people, both inside and outside the country, have spoken in unison against this Accord as illustrated by the ongoing demonstrations in Mogadishu and throughout the world. The International Community is, therefore, duty-bound to listen to these voices and to empower/assist the Somali people in determining Somali-owned solutions to the current political impasses and to find a forward-looking long term solutions and strategies supported by Somalis.

But by the end of the week,

Shabelle Media: “Uganda pressures Somali PM to stand down” says MP

Abdullahi Abdulle Magan, Somali MP, said on Sunday that the ugandan government started pressure on Somali prime minister Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed Faramajo to leave office soon.

Mr. Magan told Shabelle Media Network Uganda’s top military chief and other AMISOM officials have reached at capital of Somalia and held key meeting with the prime minister Mohammed.

The Somali MP went on to say that the meeting between Somali premier and Uganda's Chief of Defense Forces, Gen. Aronda Nyakarima along other AMISOM officials ended in vain after the PM refused their calls.

Mr . Magan noted that the Ugandan forces are needed not interfere the internal Somalia policy and be limited to their regional duties.

Another meeting was held between the Ugandan military chief and Somali prime minister over the resignation issue.

But, after the meeting ended fruitlessly, the prime minister has been demanded to quit the position with 72 hours, according to reliable sources. Sources added that the premier also refused to depart to Uganda with the military official to hold talks with the Ugandan president Yuweri Museveni.

Shabelle Media: Somali prime minister steps down from his position

Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed Farmajo, the prime minister of Somalia on Sunday resigned from his portfolio.

Speaking at press conference held in the Somali capital Mogadishu, the premier noted that he is leaving the office because of respecting the interests of the people and the nation.

The announcement of his resignation came hours after relentless pressure from Somali leaders, Ugandan president and UN’s special envoy to Somalia.

-- -- --

Daily Monitor: New Amisom commander promoted to Major General

The newly appointed Amisom commander, Brig. Fred Mugisha has been promoted to the rank of Major general and is expected to take-over the command of the African force in Mogadishu in September.

Gen. Mugisha will replace Maj. Gen. Nathan Mugisha who has been appointed deputy Ugandan Ambassador in Mogadishu. President Museveni has also appointed the outgoing force commander as the Ugandan envoy in Mogadishu.

Gen. Mugisha will command 9,000 African Union force composed of Uganda and Burundian forces in the fragile Somali capital, Mogadishu.

...

Gen. Mugisha has been the commandant of the artillery division based in Masindi. He will be the fourth commander of African peacekeepers in Somalia. He has done a number of military courses in Intelligence and anti-terrorism in Russia and America.

New Vision:

Mugisha was decorated on Tuesday by the Chief of Defence Forces, Gen. Aronda Nyakairima, during a function at the senior officers’ mess on John Babiiha Avenue in Kololo, a Kampala suburb.

...

Michael Ondoga, who has been the commander of the Ugandan contingent has been promoted to the rank of brigadier and sent for further studies in the United States. He handed over to Col. Paul Lokech.

Mugisha was trained in artillery and air defence in the former Soviet Union between 1987 and 1989. He has previously served under various capacities, including being the deputy chief of intelligence.

Mugisha thanked the commander-in-chief, President Yoweri Museveni, for the promotion and the new assignment.

Mugisha said: “I cannot claim to have enough knowledge or experience to stabilise the region. But I will seek advice from my equals, subordinates and my commanders.”

-- -- --

Shabelle Media: 1000 Somali soldiers complete training course in Dolow Ethiopia

Some 1000 Somali soldiers, who were undergoing training in Ethiopia, have completed the course as the ceremony of the conclusion was held on Monday in Dolow.

Speaking at the ceremony, Abdihakim Hajji Mohamoud Fiqi, Somalia’s minister of defense, said that the soldiers are well-trained adding they are ready to take on Al shabaab fighters.

...

For his part, Sheikh Mohammed Abu Libah, the deputy of Ahlu Sunna Waljama group in Gedo spoke at the ceremony and said that Ethiopia has made a lot effort to support Somalia, saying that Ethiopia is a part of Somalia development.

Somalia thread for the week ending June 12

Shabelle Media: MPs condemn AMISOM for shelling Mogadishu’s populated areas

Somali parliament members on Monday condemned African Union forces for random shelling on Mogadishu residential neighborhoods.

The parliamentarians accused AMISOM of ignoring their calls of stopping such shelling like that.

They said the AMISOM troops have entered Somalia through lawful means, adding that the troops are not needed to harm innocent civilians in the capital.

Mohamoud Gedi Hilowle, a Somali MP, told the journalists that they are very sorry for the civilian casualties committed by AU forces.

RBC: Lawmakers denounce Amisom indiscriminate bombardment of the capital

Somalia lawmakers denounced on Monday the indiscriminate bombardment targeted to the civilians by the African Union troops [known as AMISOM] in Mogadishu that left 16 dead, RBC Radio reports.

Lawmaker Mohamud Gedi held press conference in Mogadishu blamed AMISOM troops to be targeting civilians rather than Al-Shabab bases in Mogadishu.

“We call AMISOM forces to minimize the heavy shelling in the capital, this is not war justification but it is a kind of indiscriminate targeting of innocent civilians.” The lawmaker said.

...

“We can not call like this a war against Al-Shabab, but it is against the humanity.” Gedi added.

Mr. Gedi called the government to start investigation about the civilian’s casualties as he argued that the government will fail if the civilians are not taken care

At least 16 people were killed in two days long bombardment in Somalia capital of Mogadishu where the Islamist rebels are confronting government forces and African Union peace keepers.

The shelling started on Sunday after Somalia federal government forces with the backing of AMISOM launched fresh battle to move back Al-Shabab fighters from the north portion of the capital. Eye witnesses told RBC Radio that the shelling persisted until on Monday.

RBC:

“I currently stay in Karan district on the north of Mogadishu; really we can not even sleep for long two nights because of the artillery shelling.” A woman spoke to RBC Radio in a condition of anonymity said.

She said that many of her neighbors in Karan fled from the district to search safer places, she also said that her family members were intending to escape to Middle Shabelle region.

“No one could stay here as you hear this indiscriminate shelling, one person were killed in my neighborhood today.” She exclaimed.

Meanwhile Ali Musse Sheikh who is the head of Mogadishu ambulance service told RBC Radio that nearly 20 persons harmed by shrapnel of haphazard artillery bombardments were taken to different hospitals.

Shabelle Media: Ten killed in Mogadishu artillery barrages

At least ten people have been killed and dozens more injured after a number of mortars hit parts of northern Mogadishu.

Witnesses on Monday morning told Shabelle Radio that most of the bombardments landed the neighborhoods of sea resort Karan district where most of the most of dwellers have already displaced.

New Vision: 4 UPDF soldiers killed in Somalia

FOUR UPDF peacekeepers, including Lt. Col Patrick Tibihwa, have been killed in the volatile Somali capital Mogadishu.

Tibihwa, who was the commanding officer of the 23 battalion, was hit by a stray bullet as he inspected the newly captured areas around Bondhere district on Saturday.

Tibihwa is the highest ranking UPDF officer to be killed in Mogadishu. He hails from Nyamahunza village, Mukunyu sub-county in Kasese district. In a statement, army spokesperson Maj. Felix Kulaigye identified the other AMISOM casualties as Lt. Lawrence Tugume from the Tank battalion, Cpl. Isabirye Abdalla and Pte. Augustine Kuloba.

The three were hit by a motor shell fired at insurgents. [that's a typo, right? and what is a "motor shell" anyway?]

...

The weekend casualties are the latest Ugandan soldiers to die in an ongoing successful offensive against the al-shabaab insurgents in Mogadishu.

UPDF explained that the soldiers were killed during mopup operations after the capture of Bondere.

From an AMISOM press release on Monday

Yesterday afternoon, as an engineer bulldozer was clearing a route across a trench during operations in Bondere, it was struck and set alight by small arms fire and became trapped in the trench it was clearing. AMISOM deployed troops forward to engage the insurgents and push them back to ease recovery of the vehicle. No tank was damaged or lost.

The bulldozer has been safely recovered and is being serviced for a return to operations.

-- -- --

Hesitations about this source in general, but Somalia Report has been reporting that Prime Minister Farmajo is being pushed out to accomodate a power sharing agreement b/w the two Sharifs.
Museveni Hands Ultimatum to Somali Leaders

Ugandan leaders held a closed-door meeting with President Sheikh Sharif Sheik Ahmed and Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheik Adan and put on the table a power sharing deal that if agreed upon may see the speaker's side accept positions in cabinet or have a hand in the formation of a new cabinet that may replace the one currently headed by Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo.

...

A diplomatic source told Somalia Report that the Somali Prime Minister is expected in Kampala this evening in an effort to have him to join the talks.

Details are sketchy on how the proposed power-sharing can be formulated. However, sources say it is possible that a new cabinet can be agreed upon in order to give a term extension to TFG.

...

Sources told Somalia Report that the PM was called to "either convince him step aside or be given a role in the new proposed format."

PM To Resign, Speaker Wants Key Positions

Sources at the meeting in Kampala told Somalia Report that Somalia's Prime Minister has agreed to resign by morning. The two sides are drafting a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on how to share cabinet posts in the yet to be formed government. The MOU, if agreed upon, will be presented to Uganda's President Museveni and UN Ambassador Mahiga within hours. Somalia's president and speaker are expected to sign it, paving way for the PM to resign and extend the TFG for one year. Upon signing, the search for a new PM is expected to begin.

...

Somalia's Parliamentary Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden has offered to withdraw his opposition to a one-year extension of the government in exchange for a new cabinet with positions for his key allies, diplomatic sources told Somalia Report.

-- -- --

Quick revisit of some statements made at last week's ICG meetings in Kampala...

Museveni:

It is important to note that Uganda, as a leading Troop Contributing Country (TCC), has a vital stake in the stabilization process of Somalia. The views of the TCCs should be taken into account when key decisions are being made with regards to the Somali Peace Process.

...

With regard to the end of the transition period in Somalia in August 2011, Uganda recommends the following:

• Either the extension of all the Transitional Federal Institutions for one year to enable them complete their transitional tasks on the basis of the proposed benchmarks that include security, dialogue, consensus building on the transition and national reconciliation, constitution making, parliamentary reform, delivery of basic services and formation of a commission for the implementation of the transitional tasks.

...

..the win-win situation for all the parties would be the extension of the Transitional Federal Institutions for a period not exceeding one year to allow them complete their transitional tasks on the basis of benchmarks.

Uganda recommends the consideration of the Burundi model for the effective management of the Somali Peace process. This could involve the formation of a Committee composed of IGAD Member State, the Chair of the EAC and the appointment of a special Facilitator to push the process forward. We need to engage the principal parties in the Transitional Federal Institutions to work together on how to end the transition amicably.

Mahiga:

I am requesting this ICG meeting to lend its full support to the position of the Security Council and to use the rare joint presence of the President and the Speaker at this meeting to muster their political will to arrive at an understanding to make the Mogadishu meeting a landmark success in the Somali peace process. It can be an opportunity to strike a win-win compromise between the executive, Parliament and above all, the Somali people.

I have flagged to the Security Council and I also wish to propose to this meeting that in order to secure compliance from the future TFIs on implementing transitional tasks we, together with the TFIs should agree on a set of implementable benchmarks, timelines, a monitoring mechanism and mutual obligations in achieving the transitional tasks. Above all, I agree with the proposal that in addition to a coordination and monitoring mechanisms, we need a collective political undertaking in the region to ensure accountability of the TFIs to a regional political body which has successfully been tried in situations like that of Burundi. This approach has never been tried before in respect of Somalia and left the TFIs obligations to meet the transitional tasks open ended.

...

UNPOS in consultation with the Department of Political Affairs in New York, the African Union and IGAD is preparing a Roadmap with benchmarks, timelines and compliance requirements which we intend to be basis for discussion with the TFIs in the forthcoming meeting in Mogadishu. We shall continue to discuss extensively with partners on this Roadmap and seek to obtain consensus on its feasibility and application in the next political dispensation once agreement is reached to overcome the current political impasse.

and the day before the ICG meetings began, when Mahiga told Reuters

A power-sharing deal might offer Somalia's feuding leaders a way to save face and reach agreement on political reform, the U.N.'s special envoy to the Horn of Africa nation said on Wednesday.

...

"The bottom line is that they all want to cling to power. So, around that fundamental issue, could there be a possibility of power-sharing? I don't know," said Augustine Mahiga, the special representative of the U.N. secretary-general.

"Let them believe there is something for all of them, that there is a win-win situation," he said in an interview.

From The kampala Accord, signed less than a week later

4. The parties meeting in Kampala agreed to the following parameters:

a. We agree to defer elections of the President and the Speaker and his deputies for twelve months after August, 2011 in order to adequately prepare and complete priority transitional tasks.

b. Elections for President and Speaker of Parliament will have to take place prior to August 20, 2012.

c. Within thirty days of the signing of this Agreement, the Prime Minister will resign from his position; and the President will appoint a new Prime Minister.

d. Parliament will endorse the new Prime Minister within 14 days of the submission of the PM Nominee by the Office of the President.

e. The New Prime Minister will appoint his cabinet within 30 days of his approval and submit it to President.

f. Parliament will endorse the new cabinet within 14 days of the submission of the cabinet list by the Office of the President.

g. While ensuring the new government reflects the 4.5 formula for power sharing. These appointments will be done in the spirit of collaboration and mutual confidence between the leaders of the TFIs in accordance with their respective mandates.

...

m. Both Government and Parliament shall work together with the international community to establish a roadmap with benchmarks, timelines and compliance mechanisms for the implementation of the priority task. Details of the mechanisms to be agreed by 20 August 2011.

n. The Heads of State of the Region (IGAD and EAC) shall constitute a Political Bureau with participation of the UN (UNPOS) and the AU, similar to the Burundi Regional Peace Initiative. The Bureau shall oversee and monitor compliance of the TFIs with agreed benchmarks and timelines to implement the transitional tasks and to advance the Somali Peace Process.

o. The international partners and the Regional Bureau reserve the right to evoke appropriate measures with consequences to ensure compliance with the benchmarks and timelines by the TFIs including the application of appropriate sanctions against spoilers.

p. A mid-term review of performance of the TFIs to take place in six months time.

q. The international community shall undertake commitment to provide timely support for these efforts in line with agreed benchmarks and timelines.

...

5. The parties agreed that support for the current military operations and completion of the rebuilding of the Security forces are fundamental to the success of the transitional period and agreed that a reformed Joint Security Committee will sit permanently in Mogadishu.

6. All parties to this agreement should seek the support and reach out to all the Somali stakeholders.

...

8. We invite the international community and the regional actors to guarantee this political undertaking...

9. HE President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda will Guarantee the implementation of this agreement and sign below as a witness.

The "win-win" phrase did not make it into the final draft. And M7 may have finally crossed a line by guaranteeing implemention of an agreement proving very unpopular in the streets of AMISOM-controlled Mogadishu.

Prof. Michael Weinstein's thoughts in his latest on the TFI escapades, The “Transition” is Deferred

On June 9, the deal was done and signed by the two Sharifs, under the “auspices” of Museveni and the “facilitation” of Mahiga. The “Kampala Accord,” a copy of which was obtained and published by Garowe Online, provided for a one-year extension of the mandate of the T.F.I.s, elections for president and speaker to be held before August 20, 2012, and the resignation of the prime minister within thirty days. No details of the power-sharing formula were provided – the division of the ministries.

The operative part of the deal – what was actually done – is exhausted by its term-extension/election-timing provisions, and its dismissal of the current prime minister. The former solves the cause of the dispute among the T.F.I.s (and the “donor”-powers/U.N.) in favor of the T.F.G. – a victory definitively done through Museveni and his African allies. The latter gives Sharif Hassan his payback – the government will be changed (and he will have a part in making the change). The Kampala Accord paves the way for a new fight over the composition of the new government unless that has been decided already. It is most likely that the T.F.I. games will continue – Sh. Sharif and Sharif Hassan have clawed out another year against “donor”-power demands that their tenure must end on August 20, 2011. The “donor”-powers are back to exactly where they were before they began their campaign in February, 2011 to take over the “transition,” now run to ground and in ruins. August 20, 2011 – the end of the international mandate for the T.F.I.s – is now a meaningless date. The can has been kicked down the road.

...

The Kampala Accord defers decisions; it does not take them. Will there be a wrangle over the new prime minister and cabinet? Will there be a wrangle over roadmaps? Will there be a wrangle over the Mogadishu conference? Those kinds of disputes have been chronic in the past and there is no reason to believe that they will not happen now.

The only thing that can keep the interminable T.F.I. games from repeating themselves is the will of the “donor”-powers to “evoke appropriate measures with consequences.” Museveni engineered a political deal; he did not change the strategic game and he cannot “guarantee” the fulfillment of the promises and directives. That rests squarely on the shoulders of the “donor”-powers if they can bear the burden.

Shabelle Media: Somali MPs: the president, speaker can’t change the time of the election

The election committee of the transitional federal parliament of Somalia TFP on Thursday announced the president of Somalia and the speaker of the parliament can’t change holding national elections in the country.

...

In an interview with Shabelle Media Network, the spokesman of the election of committee, Hared Hassan Ali said the committee will keep on working and organizing both presidential and parliamentary elections despite bickering.

The outcomes of Uganda and Kenya meetings on Somalia will not be implemented; the MP was quoted as saying.

Shabelle Media:

On Friday, at least three protestors, including a soldier, have been killed and five others wounded as rallies against the proposed resignation of Somali Prime Minister, Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed, turned violent, witnesses said.

Hundreds of people flanked by Somali soldiers and military vehicles could be seen in the main streets of the capital.

Witnesses said all private and public vehicle traffic was halted. Only the military vehicles of Somali forces could be seen crisscrossing at the busy streets of the capital.

Angry demonstrators accompanied by some of military forces stormed a Hotel in Mogadishu’s Hamar-jajab district where some of Somali parliamentarians live in.

“One of the protestors died and two other injured after Somali soldiers and hotel guards clashed at Hotel Medina gate” a protestor said, noting that Somali soldiers captured hotel guards and the annoyed demonstrators got into the hotel destroying luxury cars and set alight to the hotel.

After huge fire at the hotel, the protestors started to throw stones a covey of African Union forces that come to put out the fire though they later managed to extinguish hotel fire.

Garowe Online:

Violence broke out after armed guards opened fire on angry protesters who tried to break into a hotel called Medina in central Mogadishu, which was hosting some Somali lawmakers.

The demonstrators were so angry when one of their colleagues was shot dead by transitional federal government (TFG) forces

“The demonstration caused the damage of burning hotel and vehicle” said an official from TFG.

The protesters chanting slogans against an accord signed in Ugandan capital , Kampala that calls for Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed to resign within 30 days

Some of the legislators run for their lives when they fear of being killed and the hotel set ablaze by the angry mob, according to witnesses.

African union mission in Somalia [AMISOM] tried to stop the fire but they faces resistant from civilian.

However, Somali legislators are expecting to table a motion in the parliament on Kampala accord issues, whether the prime Minister would resign or continue working.

Reuters:

two boys died when police loyal to the speaker of parliament shot at the demonstrators, starting a gunfight with soldiers loyal to President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed and his government, witnesses said. About a dozen other demonstrators were wounded.

...

"We were just walking and chanting when police guarding the Hotel Muna opened fire on us," Nadifa Ali told Reuters.

"Two young boys died on the spot and others were injured. Soon a military vehicle came and fired on the police guarding the hotel," she said.

A Reuters photographer said the protesters then set the hotel ablaze.

AP:

Protester Abdullahi said several bullets hit a soldier in the face and neck as he shouted pro-prime minister slogans in Mogadishu's Dharkinley neighborhood. The soldier was wearing army fatigues and held a picture of the prime minister, he said.

Col. Ahmed Abdinur, a Somali military official, also confirmed the death of a teenager who was shot dead after a security guard fired at a crowd demonstrating against the prime minister's possible resignation.

Abdinur said protesters, chanting anti-Ahmed and Aden slogans, approached Medina hotel, where lawmakers usually stay, and guards fired on the protesters, killing the teenager.

Protesters then set the hotel on fire, said demonstrator Abdiqadir Ahmed Mohamed who was at the scene.

Photos don't show much of fire at the Medina nor much of an attack on AMISOM responders

AHN:

During the rallies, hundreds of Somali military and police forces could be seen walking with the protestors to show support for the prime minister.

“Our leader has done a good job during his first six months in the office…We used to endure hunger and nonpayment of wages for years while defending Somali government from militants” said Ahmed Ali, a soldier. “Now, at the end of every month we receive our payments without delay.”

Shabelle Media:

As massive demonstrations denouncing the accord reached by Somali president and speaker [declaring] one year mandate extension of the government [continue], the prime minister of Somalia on Friday for first time spoke publicly.

Addressing at State Run Radio Mogadishu, Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed, the popular premier of Somalia called for the people to be calm and stay at their homes.

...

On Thursday, military officials threatened to vacate Mogadishu if the prime minister quits the job.

Mohammed spelled out that the military forces are heroes of the nation, urging them not to desert their posts and that the security forces must remain to assure peace and tranquility.

AllVoices: Somali PM: “it is compulsory to accept the need of the population”

After two days of large demonstration against resignation made by the Somali premier, the Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Abadullahi Mohamed (Farmajo) has said on Friday that it was compulsory to accept the needs of the population.

Thousands of the Somali people in Mogadishu accompanied by the national army of Somalia are still making large demonstrations in the 16 districts of the Somali capital Mogadishu in a support of the Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo who returned home on Thursday afternoon after concluding the mediating meeting between the high authorities of the transitional government of Somalia that continued in Kampala, the capital of Uganda.

...

“I could hear the sound of the people. I also thank more and more for the population to express their emotion indeed, because they have the rights to be part of the consultation of the country. I thank more to the national forces, the civil society, clerics, scholars, women and youth for their support. This will remain in my history and I will never forget. It is compulsory and an obligation to accept your needs and feelings and it is right to follow your suggestions,” said Somali PM Mr. Farmajo.

...

“I am saying one to the people and I am saying another to the national Somali army. I am saying to the people who are standing in the sunshine. Go to your houses; stop the much movements you are doing. I am also saying to the army to, please be and do not leave your defense and military bass not lose the victories you brought to the government of Somalia because it seems that the enemy was weakened.”

From a commentary by Liban Ahmad: Why the Kampala Accord Should Be Revised

Demonstrations in Mogadishu are unprecedented in Somalia's political history. Demonstrators have shown that people of Mogadishu are no longer hostage to opportunist politicians. Both president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and speaker Sharif Hassan have lost credibility due to lack of political competence. Through protests challenging the Kampala Accord, demonstrators have set an example for Somalis in other parts of the country. Not every thing in Somalia can be understood through the clan prism. Mogadishu people have written up a new narrative by supporting a prime minister they see as an honest public servant. People of Mogadishu are in need of able, dignified leaders who preserve their political maturity evidenced by their popular self-expression. The international community should revise the Kampala Accord and publish a code of conduct for working with Somalia's stakeholders.

From a commentary by Faysal Mohamud: Kampala Accord: A setback for the TFG and the International Community

According to sources in Kampala, the PM was given two options; to form a government and give half of the seats to the speaker’s allies or resign. Refusing to succumb to the pressure, Mohamed decided to step down sparking protests in Mogadishu. Both the President and Prime Minister returned to Mogadishu on Thursday, only to face endless and rapidly intensifying protests. The Prime Minister addressed the rally and urged his supporters not to use violence. Although, a spokesman for the PM denied his intention to resign, the PM said through the local media that the people’s will must be respected.

On Friday, the protests seemed never-ending; violence erupted in Mogadishu where protesters chanted slogans calling for the fall down of the president, the speaker and the parliament. Three civilians were killed after protesters tried to storm into a hotel, where lawmakers were staying. Later, the protesters set the whole building alight after the lawmakers fled. But this was not the major casualty of the day. The Interior Minister died in a suicide attack that took place inside his home, hours after he addressed the protesters. It emerged that the bomber was a member of his family.

From Nairobi to the central regions of Somalia, demonstrators expressed anger not only to the Somali government, but also to the United Nation’s envoy, Augustine Mahiga. “This is our country, Mahiga”, they chanted.

More interestingly, the demonstrations were joined by some parliamentarians and government forces, which indicate the severity of the issue. It could be argued that the Arab Spring protests may have inspired them, but it will surely have an enduring effect. The message is clear; people are tired with the government infightings that only result in meaningless resignations.

...

If the International Community reckons that the prime minister’s resignation and the extension of the government’s term would solve the embattled leaders’ dispute and help them work for a common ground, they have many reasons to rethink and reflect deeply on the political landscape of Somalia.

Since its formation in 2004, infighting has become a norm for the Somali government. The reason is simple; the government is based on an ambiguous system that never exists in the world. The speaker rivals with the president and occasionally assumes some of his constitutional powers. The leadership is divided along regional lines, each leader seeking support from the neighboring countries which their approval and support has become the only legitimacy for a Somali government.

Notably, the two feuding leaders, the president and the speaker, are politically incompetent, and always decide not to agree. If the cabinet leaders are numerically divided into two, one for each leader, then competence will be in question. Each of the two leaders will nominate their loyalists to the posts rather competent ministers. Corruption will continue, people will despair and throw their support behind Alshabaab. Back to square one. Today’s demonstrations in Mogadishu, and the public backing for a leader, who even does not originate from the Capital, cannot be underestimated. Next year, at this time we may be facing the same phenomenon, who knows?

Finally, in meddling into Somalia’s internal affairs, exploiting from the presence of his troops in Somalia to gain political influence in the beleaguered nation, President Museveni of Uganda not only plays into the hands of Alshabaab, who brands his troops as occupation forces, but questions the whole peace-keeping mandate in the continent. Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi may resign or not, but the scars will not stop bleeding.

From a commentary by Ismail Ali Ismail: To Get Out Of the Current Impasse, Dump the Dummies

Prime Minister Fermajo has been highly praised, and rightly so, for having putt together a cabinet of men and women equipped with high academic degrees - a novelty in Somalia. To his credit there were, in the wake of the Kampala Accord, public demonstrations in Mogadishu in support of his stay as prime minister.

That does not detract from the fact that he and his cabinet colleagues are political novices and, clearly, he did not play his politics very well. He assailed the Parliament openly and imprudently before the UN Security Council (a foreign body) when he was last in New York and that was not lost on Sharief Hassan and many members of Parliament. It is unfortunate that the country does not have leaders who have the necessary combination of political and executive experience. The few that exist are old and struggling with their lives in the Diaspora, and it is premature, in the absence of safety and security as well as political stability, to think about establishing competent public services which are sine qua non to performance and the achievement of national goals. Though everyone is fed up with a transitional political arrangement the country has a long way to go before things settle down and stabilize.

In the interim, however, and in view of the foregoing it is my considered opinion that Parliament should ignore the Kampala Accord and hold a new presidential election in August this year and that it should dump, for the sake and sanity of the Nation, Sharief Hassan as a speaker (he has been there for ages and has been an obstacle to progress for too long) and elect a new speaker who is willing to respect his mandate within the framework of established parliamentary procedures. I would have added that both ‘shariefs’ be barred from standing for the presidential election, were it not for Democracy that dictates otherwise.

Honestly, I cannot for the life of me understand how the Kampala Accord can override the prior decision of Parliament to extend its own life for three years. Clearly, Sharief Hassan had no mandate to commit Parliament to reducing its term extension to only one year, which will end coincidentally with the President’s extension. We have already heard vociferous and loud protestations from many members of parliament condemning the Speaker for having taken upon himself to act for Parliament without a prior mandate and to meddle in the internal composition and affairs of the Executive.

Moreover, I think it will make a lot of good if the Charter is amended to state clearly and unequivocally that the President cannot dismiss the Prime Minister so long as he commands the confidence of Parliament. Within a space of only two years Sheikh Sharief has dismissed two prime ministers and his predecessor, Abdullahi Yusuf, dismissed likewise two prime ministers within four years. But Abdullahi was not allowed to get away with it in the second instance (in the case of Nur Adde). Sheikh Sharief ignored that precedent and he got away with the dismissal of two prime ministers within a short span of only two years. Where then is the stability he was supposed to create? The country cannot be served properly and effectively by a prime minister and a cabinet who are subservient to a whimsical president. Therefore, it should be recognized that the Prime Minister does not serve at the pleasure of the President but by commanding the confidence of Parliament.

Reuters: Somalia PM says will quit only if parliament agrees

Somalia's prime minister said on Saturday he would not resign unless the country's parliament endorses an agreement signed by the country's president and speaker that stipulates he leaves office within 30 days.

...

"The Kampala decision should be presented to the parliament and then be verified by the country's constitution," Mohammed said in a statement, his first public reaction to the agreement signed on Thursday.

"The (agreement) can be valid and the PM will resign only if parliament votes for the Kampala decision."

More than 200 members of parliament planned to urge the prime minister to reconvene parliament to debate the accord, saying in a statement the deal took away parliament's oversight of the government.

From an efficient analysis by Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh, The Kampala Accord: Is Sharif Hassan less Somali than Sharif Ahmed?

For the first time in the past two decades the Somali people marched in the streets of some districts of Mogadishu protesting, in the false assumption that they have a government, against what mistakenly appeared to them as a shadowy agreement signed by Somalia’s top politicians under the auspices of the international community (IC) that keeps them in office. The president and the speaker of a sovereign democratic state, of which Somalia can’t be classified as one, have no right to sign a document of that significance without the explicit approval of the parliament and the government but in trusteeship Somalia all disputes are, by and large, referred back to the (IC) and their judgment was always final without appeal and this case is no different as there are numerous similar precedents on record.

...

The agreement, as it stands, appears to the novice in Somalia’s politics, to have been negotiated in the firm assumption that the Somalis are so thoughtless that anything can pass right under their noses without them taking any notice. The current anger and protest lead by the popular uprising June 9 group, in the streets of Mogadishu remains to be seen if it at all reaches fruition. TFG’s army, Police and all sections of the society that live in the government-held districts and far beyond joined hands in a two-day rally to show their disapproval of the dismissal of Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmaajo”, but the repulsive truth is the Kampala Accord is too strong to be reversed by the poor and disorganized people who are under the mercy of the same IC itself.

...

Ethiopian prime minister is rubbing his hands with glee because the speaker of the house, who is Ethiopia’s poodle, finally has walked out of Kampala with his head high. President Ahmed, by signing the agreement, also signed away his powers and voluntarily accepted to be reduced effectively to a dummy-status but the good news is no one will lose sleep over his demise – his grandfather’s bones were exhumed from Mahadday and bagged recently by Al Shabab’s grave demolition squad.

Uganda’s Museveni will keep his troops in Mogadishu at least for a year and so will have not only cash flowing in to his coffers but will lend him stronger leverage in the international political circles where political governance is an issue.

...

Ambassador Mahiga will most probably be promoted because through his good offices he secured plenty of work for the lords of the poverty industry. The world’s largest refugee camp was declared to have run out of space – thanks to the consequences of recent barbaric wars in Gedo and Lower Jubba.

Despite the setback they suffered in Mogadishu Al Shabab will stay in business for the foreseeable future. AMISOM forces paid a very expensive price in moving Al Shabab from one trench to the next and so will have no more appetite to chase the elusive AL Shabab. Al Shabab have changed their war tactic to hit and run which makes them rather more lethal by the day- The latest casualty is the TFG’s Interior Minister killed by his own niece. Al Shabab is strong enough to keep the TFG and the international community engaged in project Somalia well beyond the one year mandate – the future of project Somalia is as bright as ever.

No matter how much Mogadishu and Somalia love Prime Minister Mohamed Farmaajo and no matter how much he achieved during his short time in Office, sorry to say, but the decision to keep or fire him rests squarely with the IC which has an agenda of its own.

-- -- --

A New Vision (govt-owned media) article on the burial of the UPDF Lt. Colonel killed in Mogadishu last week states

A 36-gun salute rocked the area in honour of his role in the military. Sibihwa and five tank crew members were killed in an attack by al-Shabaab militants in the Somali capital Mogadishu on June 3.

Sibihwa was referred to as Tibihwa in the UPDF statement at the time, as reported by New Vision on June 6th, which gave a number of only four members of the tank battalion in total being killed, not six as this weekend's article cites.