Comments on africa comments: somalia thread

interview w/ sheikh sharif in uganda's new ...

2009-07-28T13:22:08.137-05:00
interview w/ sheikh sharif in uganda's new vision sticks to the talking points & simple narrative, names some names, refuses others

Al Shabaab have betrayed Islam — Somali president

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How many foreign fighters are there and who are they?

There is no exact number for the foreign fighters, but they are many. Some of them are from Europe, America, Asia and Africa. There are also Somali nationals who went to other countries, changed their nationality and came back.

Would you estimate them to be in their hundreds or thousands?

There are over 2,000.

Who is their commander?

The commander of the Somali terrorist fighters is called Ahmed Abdi Godane, a Somali who was trained in Afghanistan. The Somali who changed their nationality and came back are commanded by a Pakistani General called Hajir. As for al-Qaeda, Abu Yahya al-Libi (a Libyan who fought in Afghanistan in the early 1990s) was assigned to control what is going on in Somalia. Osama Bin Laden himself talked about that.

What is the role of Eritrea?

Eritrea sends money. It is a transit point for the foreign fighters to come here. Eritrean officers are in Somalia (to train al Shabaab).

Are any other countries supporting al-Shabaab?

Yes, there are other countries behind Eritrea, but we are not naming them now.

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on AMISOM forces, which are largely ugandan, sh. sharif says

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AMISOM soldiers operate within a mandate which they know. They consult and coordinate with the government on whatever action they plan. Their discipline is good. They perform their duties actively.

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from an article on monday at garowe online

7 killed in Mogadishu shelling

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MOGADISHU, Somalia July 27 (Garowe Online) - At least seven people were killed in the Somali capital Mogadishu on Monday after suspected insurgents attacked Somali government forces and African Union peacekeepers (AMISOM), Radio Garowe reports.

The dead were killed in an exchange of artillery fire between the warring sides, with local sources reporting that at least 15 people were wounded, mostly civilians.

The shelling was preceded by street fighting between insurgents and pro-government forces along Maka Al Mukarrama Road, an important street used by government and AMISOM forces.

Most of the killed and wounded persons died when shells hit parts of Bakara Market, the country’s largest marketplace and a stronghold of the insurgency since 2007.

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so most of the dead were killed by govt-associated forces, of which AMISOM were reportedly engaged

garowe online: 'Ethiopia troops return' to key road in central Somalia
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BELETWEIN, Somalia July 25 (Garowe Online) - A heavily armed convoy of Ethiopian troops has returned to a key road in central Somalia, Radio Garowe reports.

Witnesses and local sources reported that the Ethiopian army convoy crossed the common border and arrived at Kala-Beyr junction in the central Hiran region on Saturday morning.

Kala-Beyr is a strategic crossroads that connects the central regions and the northern of Somalia and provides access to the Somali-inhabited region of eastern Ethiopia.

Ethiopian troops had withdrawn from Kala-Beyr junction earlier this month and it was not immediately clear whey the troops returned.

But their return comes at a time when two consecutive days of fighting among Islamist militias in parts of Hiran and Galgadud regions killed at least 31 people, according to local sources.

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from the latest analysis piece from abdikarim haji...

2009-07-25T01:26:02.490-05:00
from the latest analysis piece from abdikarim haji abdi buh, sharif's ambivalent state of mind - flee or not to flee is the question, posted at wardheer news

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The recent consignment of 40-ton pile of guns and ammunition from the United States not from Eretaria ended up at the weapons and ammunitions market faster then the expectation of the market merchants which angered them to a point they knock at the door of the Shar – Sharif’s door. They complained about the flooding of their market which is distorting the demand and supply of the market and asked for compensation for the lost investments. The uniform was the only well come as it found a readily demand from the city’s restaurant workers, wheel barrow market porters and also from the labourers in the building trade and etc. Disappointed arms dealers which are based near Black Sea restaurant- Cirka Toogte, are selling the M16 ,version known as Saar, at lost to get rid of it as fast as it pushed its way in to the market to avoid further price buckle.

The stock of arms and ammunitions in the market was predictable at best of times because there was only one source of supply – Ethiopian government. The market has to adjust itself in anticipation of further floods of arms from USA and hopefully from other European countries which will certainly drive the prices down unless new inter- tribal wars or inter-Islamists wars come to the rescue of the market. It is plausible possibility that the insiders of the market might work out to start low intensity wars between Mogadishu tribes to take the excess out of the market - the end justifies the means.

The TFG soldiers deposit their ammunition with the ladies that sell QAT in and around the vicinity of the old National Theatre to sell for them and that practices were going on for a long time.

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The opposition Islamists are rightly bent on taking out their ex - comrade in arms who blatantly betrayed them at the behest of the CIA and I do firmly believe that Shar - Sharif should know the basic laws of politics – political mistake committed can only be corrected by blood path. His past is haunting him but it is a high time to understand that he can’t buy one more day by accusing his comrades as being terrorists – how come he is not one when he is fanning the fires of un-winnable war at colossal civilian cost. He can’t repay the human and material catastrophe he enacted during his short term in the fictitious office but can mitigate by accepting defeat and leaving the scene for the Somalis to start the second round, of what ever, sooner then latter.

I sense the second round is inevitable and is round the corner but will start in earnest soon after Shar – Sharif is hanged or crosses the boarder to the safety of where his money is stashed. The Islamists will definitely fight among themselves as their creed differs greatly – Al-Shabab on one side of the scale and Hisbi – Islam on the other side. I foresee that their scuffle will not create civilian casualties of the proportion we have seen because foreign forces with heavy but blind guns will be denied the theatre of war by both and the discipline of their soldiers and fighters guarantees maximum safety and security to civilians unlike the current TFG bandits( mooryaan). As they stand to day the area under the control of the Mujahidiin in Mogadishu as well as in the rest of the country, the civilians can sleep in their homes without the need to close their doors – they delivered water tight law and order at avoidable price and as such they deserve to be praised and encouraged.

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mareeg online: Rebel leader says he is uniting Insurgents
MOGADISHU (Mareeg)—Somalia’s rebel leader Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys said on Friday plans to unite Hizbul Islam-his group and al Shabaab were going on.

Addressing hundreds of people in Aba Hureyra Mosque in Bakaraha market in Mogadishu after Friday’s prayers Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys said people should be patient the casualties from the fighting and wait what he called “victory over enemies”.

i apologize for the glaring typos in my response ...

2009-07-21T01:03:53.228-05:00
i apologize for the glaring typos in my response

should have read "despite official rhetoric claiming otherwise", not 'indicating'

and, of course, "the exaggerated tales" not 'exaggerated the tales'

in too much of a hurry on too little sleep these days

maxcrat - the u.s., as i've long been pointing out, provides much more than just "tepid lip service-style support" for the TFG. maybe someday i'll attempt to outline all that we've observed, but, for now, there were efforts to build up credibility for the former TFG through 'national reconciliation conferences' which went nowhere due to the power & popularity of the insurgency and president yusuf's administration's intransigence. so the transitional federal charter was adjusted, things moved to djibouti, and, in what has to be viewed as a counter-revolutionary strategy, a compromise was reached w/ the most compromised wing of the ARS. the pliable sheikh sharif was made president, islamist is now fighting islamist, with a little help from uganda & burundi, and that's just the way the external powers seem to like it. they'll throw in just enough money & arms & training to ensure somalia stays destabilized so long as there's the threat of a radicalized islamic revolution in the region.

xcroc - thanks. certainly is interesting timing for the king of bunyoro to be vacating his throne

I echo Maxcrat, not exactly surprised and continua...

2009-07-20T11:24:44.300-05:00
I echo Maxcrat, not exactly surprised and continually disappointed. For many years, every time the US got a new president I used to think maybe the foreign policy would get a bit smarter, or at least take a longer view of self interest. I'd still like to see it.

Meanwhile, a bit farther south, Bunyoro king flees as police besiege palace. I just stumbled on this. It appears to be some conflict between the King and the Resident District Commissioner, Ms Martha Asimwe, and involve an armed robbery. Oil isn't mentioned, but I wonder about it lurking in the background.

And apparently the Obama visit to Ghana caused some friction with Togo.
Ghana-Togo Relationship In Crisis Over Obama Trip
The much-touted US President Barack Obama’s visit to Ghana has left a looming international relations crisis in its wake, with a Togolese private newspaper warning of a possible return to cold, hurtful diplomatic relations between Togo and Ghana.

This follows an alleged secret meeting between Togolese opposition leader, Gilchrist Olympio and President Barack Obama, purportedly arranged by the Ghanaian authorities in Accra.
...
According to the paper, the Togolese opposition leader was virtually given a red carpet treatment in Accra and invited to the Ghanaian Parliament where the American President gave an address.
... opposition leader was accorded the privilege of engaging Barack Obama in a few minutes’ tete-a-tete, albeit briefly, during the visit to Accra.
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And all this was done when negotiations for a high-powered Togo government delegation to be allowed to meet President Obama in Accra was turned down by Ghana, the paper alleged. Viewed against the background that a semblance of a reconciliatory process was organized between Accra and Lome recently, the Togolese government saw the development as unfortunate and an act of betrayal.

I really don't know the truth or significance of this. It may just be a private paper with an axe to grind. As I understand it Gilchrist Olympio lives some of the time in Ghana. It sounds like a much more political act than President Obama seems to prefer.

xcroc

Thanks for such a comprehensive reply. I guess th...

2009-07-19T20:30:57.818-05:00
Thanks for such a comprehensive reply. I guess the U.S. government is happier providing tepid lip service-style support to a weak TFG than to look to some coalition of resistance forces for a constructive negotiated resolution that would involve disengagement. I'm not exactly surprised, but continually disappointed.

maxcrat - the likelihood of another unified front...

2009-07-19T17:15:43.051-05:00
maxcrat -

the likelihood of another unified front right now of the magnitude that the earlier ICU had appears rather slim.

the ICU itself fractured into a number of different factions and new alignments. not all are part of the opposition, as several figures, including sheikh sharif himself, are now co-opted into their former enemy, the so-called 'transitional federal govt', after sharif was peeled off from the ARS in asmara.

hizbul islam was one attempt to join several of the current opposition militias under a unified group, and it has been moderately succesful, though undermined by internal disputes early on & unable to convince the decentralized harakat al shabaab mujahideen militias that a unified front was in the best interests of all. part of this is due to broader ideological differences, according to some observers, which override any exigent opportunities to coalesce around common objective. there does appear to be coordination of activities, after all they are often end up fighting side by side to control/retake territories & fend off attacks, but nothing more than transitory at this point.

and even if hizbul islam & harakat al shabaab mujahideen were to unite, it is extremely unlikely that they would be recognized as a legitimate negotiating force. they have repeatedly, despite official rhetoric indicating otherwise, been rejected any opportunity for a seat at the table in any official discussions. instead there is a continued demonization of them as extremists who have no say in imposing their "foreign" ideals of islam on somalia, while, in actuality, it is a continuation of a homegrown revolutionary islamic mvmt that resulted in the courts themselves back in '06.

simply put, as we see elsewhere in the political arena, only those muslims deemed "moderate", meaning compatible w/ western hegemonic criteria, are tolerable in positions of power to those who want to shape the world to their advantage.

re exaggerated the tales of al-qa'idah seeking a safe haven in somalia, don't take them too seriously. the opposition, supported widely in southern and central somalia, is fighting against foreign control of their country.

Thanks for the updates. How likely is it that the...

2009-07-19T08:25:30.742-05:00
Thanks for the updates.

How likely is it that the Islamic Courts Union and other parts of the opposition could present a united front and common terms for negotiating a constructive resolution to this if the AU, U.N., EU or U.S. were to seriously pursue it?

Is it realistic to think that the opposition would allow AQ to function within Somalia if they regained power?